Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 W 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 56 E 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 62 S 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 69 SW 2 15696 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 69 75 SW 3 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 72 77 SW 5 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 74 79 W 6 21843 20251 8751 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 75 79 W 7 21843 20251 8751 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 75 78 W 7 21045 20189 8689 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 76 78 W 8 21045 20189 8689 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 75 76 W 8 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 8 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 7 15696 11500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 64 64 SW 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 S 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 E 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 E 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 57 S 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SW 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 71 SW 2 19630 14450 2950 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 71 76 W 3 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 73 76 W 5 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 75 78 W 6 21045 20189 8689 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 75 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 75 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 74 75 W 8 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 16393 11795 295 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 8 12212 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 S 7 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 SE 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SE 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 SE 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SE 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SE 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 S 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 62 S 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 S 3 14759 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 68 73 SW 3 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 71 75 W 5 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 72 76 W 6 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 73 76 W 6 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 73 75 W 7 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 73 74 W 7 20150 19586 8086 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 19758 15548 4048 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 16393 11795 295 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 6 12212 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 S 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 S 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 54 SW 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 SW 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 67 SW 3 12212 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 72 W 3 19758 15548 4048 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 69 74 W 5 20150 19586 8086 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 71 75 W 6 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 72 76 W 7 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 73 76 W 7 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 74 75 W 7 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 73 73 W 7 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 19630 14450 2950 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 12212 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 1 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 S 1 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 S 1 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 62 S 1 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 68 S 1 14759 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 73 S 1 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 70 75 W 6 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 72 77 W 6 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 73 77 W 6 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 73 76 W 6 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 74 76 W 6 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 6 20212 19713 8213 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 6 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 6 15696 11500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 55 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 63 W 2 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 68 W 2 14759 11500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 74 W 2 20150 19586 8086 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 71 76 W 7 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 72 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 73 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 74 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 75 77 W 7 20402 20103 8603 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 75 76 W 7 20274 19893 8393 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 19977 16238 4738 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 16393 11795 295 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 7 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 7 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 8235 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com