Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 SE 6 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 53 E 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 59 SE 5 14311 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 58 62 S 6 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 61 66 SW 8 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 63 68 SW 9 20408 20108 7908 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 64 69 SW 10 21101 20192 7992 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 65 69 SW 10 21101 20192 7992 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 65 68 SW 10 20408 20108 7908 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 65 66 SW 10 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 64 64 SW 10 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 15553 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 8 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SE 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SE 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 6 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 54 SW 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 60 SW 3 15553 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 61 64 SW 6 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 63 66 W 8 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 64 65 W 10 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 64 65 W 10 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 62 63 W 9 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 8 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 SE 8 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 SE 8 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SE 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SE 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 S 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 57 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 SW 10 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 59 64 SW 12 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 61 64 W 13 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 62 65 W 14 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 62 64 W 15 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 62 63 W 16 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 62 63 W 16 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 14 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 13 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SE 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 S 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 SW 9 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 61 SW 10 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 59 64 W 13 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 60 64 W 14 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 61 65 W 15 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 62 65 W 14 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 14 20149 19582 7382 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 14 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 14 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 14311 12200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 W 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 12 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SW 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 S 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 57 S 5 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 61 S 5 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 59 64 S 5 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 61 66 W 12 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 62 67 W 12 20275 19895 7695 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 62 66 W 12 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 63 66 W 12 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 64 66 W 12 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 19620 14088 1888 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 10 15553 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 3 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 SW 3 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 52 SW 3 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 58 SW 3 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 63 SW 3 19750 15442 3242 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 61 67 SW 3 20275 19895 7695 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 62 68 NW 13 20408 20108 7908 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 64 70 NW 13 21921 20255 8055 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 64 69 NW 13 21101 20192 7992 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 65 69 NW 13 21101 20192 7992 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 65 67 NW 13 20275 19895 7695 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 65 66 NW 13 20212 19712 7512 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 64 64 NW 10 19967 16159 3959 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 10 16280 12200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NW 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 10 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 7 10486 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com