Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 63 63 NW 12 4154 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 W 9 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 W 8 3878 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 W 7 5202 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 76 78 W 7 7397 6300 684 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 81 85 S 7 9786 8739 3123 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 84 90 S 8 13583 10470 4854 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 86 93 S 10 15788 13349 7733 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 89 97 S 13 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 90 97 S 14 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 90 96 S 16 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 91 95 SW 17 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 89 91 SW 18 14369 11551 5935 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 86 87 SW 18 10689 9405 3789 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 18 7749 6660 1044 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 18 4892 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 17 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 17 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 16 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 15 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 14 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 14 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NW 14 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 NW 13 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 13 4154 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NW 13 4154 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 N 12 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 76 N 10 6682 5616 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 80 82 N 10 8782 7716 2100 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 84 88 NE 10 11776 9733 4117 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 86 92 E 10 15101 12497 6881 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 87 94 E 10 16438 14133 8517 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 89 97 SE 10 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 90 97 SE 12 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 91 97 S 13 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 91 95 S 15 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 17 13583 10470 4854 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 84 85 SW 18 9786 8739 3123 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 78 78 SW 18 7397 6300 684 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 18 5579 5616 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 69 69 W 17 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 16 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 15 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 14 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 14 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 13 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 13 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 13 4154 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NW 12 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 NW 10 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 4892 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 76 W 9 6682 5616 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 80 82 W 8 8782 7716 2100 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 83 87 S 8 10689 9405 3789 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 86 92 S 8 15101 12497 6881 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 88 94 S 9 16438 14133 8517 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 89 95 S 10 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 90 95 S 12 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 91 96 S 13 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 91 94 S 14 16438 14133 8517 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 89 91 SW 15 14369 11551 5935 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 15 9454 8401 2785 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 14 7749 6660 1044 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 14 5579 5616 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 14 4800 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 14 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 14 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 13 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 12 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 10 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 10 4154 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 W 10 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 10 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 SW 9 4892 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 75 S 9 6319 5616 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 79 81 S 8 8441 7368 1752 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 82 86 S 8 10114 9074 3458 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 84 90 S 9 13583 10470 4854 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 86 93 S 10 15788 13349 7733 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 87 94 S 12 16438 14133 8517 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 88 95 S 14 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 90 96 S 14 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 90 94 S 14 16438 14133 8517 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 88 90 S 14 13583 10470 4854 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 84 85 S 13 9786 8739 3123 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 12 7749 6660 1044 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 5951 5616 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 12 4800 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 SW 12 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 12 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 10 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 W 10 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 W 9 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 W 9 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 W 9 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 W 9 4246 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 W 9 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 S 9 5202 5616 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 77 78 S 9 7397 6300 684 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 81 83 S 9 9120 8060 2444 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 84 88 S 9 11776 9733 4117 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 86 92 S 9 15101 12497 6881 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 88 95 S 10 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 89 96 S 13 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 90 97 S 14 18219 16194 10578 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 91 96 S 14 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 91 95 S 14 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 89 91 S 14 14369 11551 5935 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 85 85 S 14 9786 8739 3123 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 14 8097 7016 1400 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 14 6319 5616 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 14 4892 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 W 14 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 14 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 14 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 13 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 W 12 4523 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 12 4431 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 W 13 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 12 4338 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 W 12 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 10 5202 5616 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 76 76 SW 9 6682 5616 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 81 83 SW 8 9120 8060 2444 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 84 88 SW 8 11776 9733 4117 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 87 93 SW 9 15788 13349 7733 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 88 95 SW 10 17058 14861 9245 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 89 96 S 12 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 91 98 S 14 18766 16811 11195 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 92 98 S 14 18766 16811 11195 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 92 96 S 14 17650 15546 9930 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 91 93 S 14 15788 13349 7733 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 87 87 SW 14 10689 9405 3789 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 14 8441 7368 1752 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 15 6682 5616 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 15 5579 5616 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 15 4800 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 15 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 14 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 13 4800 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 W 12 4707 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 W 12 4615 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 W 12 4523 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com