Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 WNW 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 57 WNW 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 58 61 WNW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 67 W 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 65 71 WSW 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 67 74 SSW 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 68 76 WSW 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 69 76 W 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 72 W 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 67 70 W 26 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 66 68 W 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 WNW 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 51 52 WNW 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 53 56 WNW 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 57 62 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 60 66 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 69 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 72 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 64 71 W 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 64 69 W 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 62 65 W 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 60 61 W 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 54 54 W 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 45 W 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 48 49 W 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 53 W 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 56 W 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 62 W 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 58 65 W 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 59 66 W 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 59 65 W 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 59 64 W 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 58 61 W 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 57 58 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 42 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 21 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 49 50 W 21 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 54 W 21 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 53 59 W 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 61 W 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 62 W 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 55 61 W 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 60 W 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 57 W 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 54 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 46 46 W 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 44 44 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 47 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 49 51 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 56 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 61 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 64 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 67 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 67 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 66 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 61 64 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 60 62 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 52 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 57 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 57 61 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 60 66 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 63 70 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 65 73 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 73 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 67 72 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 71 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]