Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 26 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 24 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 W 22 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 77 W 21 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 80 82 W 16 11291 7248 1415 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 83 87 W 13 11527 11376 5543 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 85 91 SW 13 12941 11563 5730 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 86 93 SW 14 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 88 96 SW 14 13936 13287 7454 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 89 96 SW 15 13936 13287 7454 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 89 95 SW 18 13738 13089 7256 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 88 92 W 22 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 22 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 24 11433 11281 5448 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 26 11291 7248 1415 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 28 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 29 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 77 77 W 29 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 77 77 W 28 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 26 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 76 76 W 25 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 76 76 W 24 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 23 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 75 75 W 22 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 75 75 NW 22 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 74 74 NW 21 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 NW 18 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 80 80 N 18 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 82 83 NE 14 11338 7799 1966 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 84 87 E 10 11527 11376 5543 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 86 90 E 10 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 87 92 E 10 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 88 94 E 10 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 89 93 SE 10 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 90 93 SE 10 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 90 92 SE 10 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 89 90 S 12 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 86 86 S 12 11480 11329 5496 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 83 83 S 12 11338 7799 1966 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 80 80 W 22 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 79 79 W 22 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 78 78 W 22 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 78 78 W 25 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 W 25 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 77 77 W 25 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 77 77 W 22 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 77 77 W 22 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 77 77 W 22 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 77 77 NW 21 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 78 78 NW 21 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 79 79 NW 21 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 81 81 N 14 10379 6773 940 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 83 85 N 14 11433 11281 5448 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 86 90 N 14 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 88 94 E 10 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 90 97 E 10 14134 13485 7652 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 91 98 E 10 14552 13682 7849 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 91 98 SE 14 14552 13682 7849 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 91 96 SE 14 13936 13287 7454 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 91 95 SE 14 13738 13089 7256 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 90 92 S 14 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 87 87 S 14 11527 11376 5543 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 84 84 S 14 11386 10301 4468 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 23 10379 6773 940 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 23 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 79 79 SW 23 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 79 79 W 26 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 W 26 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 78 78 W 26 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 78 78 W 23 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 78 78 W 23 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 78 78 W 23 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 78 78 W 22 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 79 79 W 22 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 80 80 W 22 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 81 81 W 14 10379 6773 940 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 83 85 W 14 11433 11281 5448 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 85 89 W 14 11753 11471 5638 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 87 93 SE 13 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 89 96 SE 13 13936 13287 7454 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 90 97 SE 13 14134 13485 7652 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 90 97 S 18 14134 13485 7652 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 90 95 S 18 13738 13089 7256 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 89 93 S 18 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 88 90 S 22 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 85 85 S 22 11433 11281 5448 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 82 82 S 22 11291 7248 1415 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 26 7289 6553 720 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 26 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 26 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 28 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 28 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 28 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 76 76 W 23 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 75 75 W 23 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 75 75 W 23 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 75 75 W 22 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 76 76 W 22 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 77 77 W 22 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 78 78 W 15 6779 5833 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 80 82 W 15 11291 7248 1415 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 82 86 W 15 11480 11329 5496 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 84 89 S 12 11753 11471 5638 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 86 92 S 12 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 87 93 S 12 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 88 94 SW 17 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 17 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 88 91 SW 17 12941 11563 5730 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 22 11753 11471 5638 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 22 11386 10301 4468 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 22 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 30 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 30 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 75 75 W 30 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 29 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 29 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 29 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 74 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 W 23 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 W 23 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 76 76 W 23 6558 5833 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 77 77 W 16 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 79 81 W 16 10379 6773 940 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 82 86 W 16 11480 11329 5496 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 84 90 SW 12 12700 11517 5684 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 86 93 SW 12 13341 12481 6648 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 87 94 SW 12 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 88 95 SW 15 13738 13089 7256 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 89 94 SW 15 13540 12890 7057 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 88 92 SW 15 13141 11652 5819 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 87 89 W 22 11753 11471 5638 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 84 84 W 22 11386 10301 4468 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 22 7848 6663 830 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 26 6668 5833 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 26 5153 5833 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 74 74 W 26 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 28 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 W 28 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 W 28 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 W 25 4964 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com