Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 5 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 W 5 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 W 5 11698 9676 1205 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 71 75 W 5 17340 15112 6641 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 75 81 SE 7 21275 18927 10456 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 78 85 SE 7 23689 21635 13164 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 80 88 SE 7 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 81 88 SE 8 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 83 89 SE 8 26190 23938 15467 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 83 87 SE 8 24747 22838 14367 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 82 84 SW 8 23128 20983 12512 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 79 80 SW 8 20582 18359 9888 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 74 74 SW 8 16690 14343 5872 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 9 13662 10392 1921 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 9 10479 9329 858 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 9 10037 8979 508 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 8 9340 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 NW 8 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 8 7902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NW 7 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NW 7 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NW 7 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NW 5 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 NW 5 10479 9329 858 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 74 NW 5 16690 14343 5872 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 79 SE 7 19838 17769 9298 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 77 84 SE 7 23128 20983 12512 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 79 86 SE 7 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 81 88 SE 9 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 82 88 SE 9 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 82 86 SE 9 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 81 83 SW 9 22541 20289 11818 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 9 19838 17769 9298 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 9 16690 14343 5872 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 13662 10392 1921 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 11698 9676 1205 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 10037 8979 508 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 8 9340 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 8 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 6 7902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 6782 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 6782 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 7902 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 NW 5 10037 8979 508 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 NW 5 15279 12603 4132 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 73 78 NE 7 19126 17154 8683 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 76 82 NE 7 21925 19543 11072 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 78 85 NE 7 23689 21635 13164 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 80 86 NE 7 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 81 86 NE 7 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 81 85 NE 7 23689 21635 13164 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 79 81 NE 7 21275 18927 10456 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 75 76 NE 7 17960 15831 7360 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 70 70 NE 7 13662 10392 1921 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 66 66 NE 7 10037 8979 508 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 NE 7 9691 8625 154 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 NE 7 9340 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 N 6 9340 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 6 7902 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 6 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 N 6 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 6782 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 67 W 5 10479 9329 858 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 W 5 16005 13514 5043 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 75 81 SE 9 21275 18927 10456 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 78 85 SE 9 23689 21635 13164 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 80 87 SE 9 24747 22838 14367 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 81 88 SE 9 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 83 89 SE 9 26190 23938 15467 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 83 87 SE 9 24747 22838 14367 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 81 83 SE 10 22541 20289 11818 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 77 78 SE 10 19126 17154 8683 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 71 71 SE 10 14502 11582 3111 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 66 66 SE 10 10037 8979 508 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 SE 10 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 SE 10 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 S 7 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 S 7 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 7533 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 6782 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 6399 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 S 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 S 6 11698 9676 1205 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 70 74 S 6 16690 14343 5872 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 74 80 SE 9 20582 18359 9888 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 77 84 SE 9 23128 20983 12512 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 79 87 SE 9 24747 22838 14367 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 81 88 SE 9 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 82 88 SE 9 25455 23399 14928 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 81 85 SE 9 23689 21635 13164 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 79 81 SE 9 21275 18927 10456 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 76 77 SE 9 18554 16509 8038 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 71 71 SE 9 14502 11582 3111 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 67 67 SE 9 10479 9329 858 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SE 9 9340 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 SE 9 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 S 6 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 S 6 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 S 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 S 6 7902 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 7160 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 6 5620 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 6012 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 6782 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 67 W 6 10479 9329 858 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 73 W 6 16005 13514 5043 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 79 SE 7 19838 17769 9298 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 76 83 SE 7 22541 20289 11818 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 78 86 SE 7 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 80 87 SE 7 24747 22838 14367 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 80 86 SE 7 24228 22251 13780 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 79 83 SE 7 22541 20289 11818 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 77 79 W 7 19838 17769 9298 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 75 76 W 7 17960 15831 7360 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 7 14502 11582 3111 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 11698 9676 1205 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 7 9691 8625 154 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 8986 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 8629 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 W 6 8268 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 6 7533 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 6 6399 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com