Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 61 63 N 5 11428 11276 2337 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 63 66 N 5 11574 11424 2485 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 66 71 W 7 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 68 74 W 7 14034 13378 4439 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 69 75 W 7 14242 13587 4648 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 70 76 W 10 15057 13794 4855 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 71 76 W 10 15057 13794 4855 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 71 74 W 10 14034 13378 4439 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 70 72 W 13 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 13 12987 11570 2631 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 13 11835 11474 2535 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 11526 11375 2436 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 10 11478 11325 2386 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 11329 8939 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 W 6 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 SE 3 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 3 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SE 3 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 E 5 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 63 67 E 5 11835 11474 2535 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 67 72 S 6 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 70 76 S 6 15057 13794 4855 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 72 79 S 6 17071 14896 5957 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 73 79 S 7 17071 14896 5957 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 74 79 S 7 17071 14896 5957 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 74 77 S 7 15865 14001 5062 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 72 73 NW 8 13826 13170 4231 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 71 71 NW 8 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 12776 11522 2583 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 8 11835 11474 2535 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 65 65 NW 8 11526 11375 2436 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 11478 11325 2386 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 11428 11276 2337 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 8 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 59 59 NW 8 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NW 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NW 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 S 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 S 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 S 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 S 7 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 62 63 S 7 11428 11276 2337 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 65 68 S 7 12776 11522 2583 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 67 72 E 8 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 69 75 E 8 14242 13587 4648 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 71 77 E 8 15865 14001 5062 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 72 78 E 8 16548 14208 5269 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 73 78 E 8 16548 14208 5269 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 73 76 E 8 15057 13794 4855 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 9 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 9 12987 11570 2631 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 11835 11474 2535 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 11526 11375 2436 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 11478 11325 2386 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 11428 11276 2337 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 11428 11276 2337 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 6 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 11329 8939 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 SW 6 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 65 68 SW 6 12776 11522 2583 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 67 70 S 5 13198 11740 2801 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 67 71 S 5 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 67 71 S 5 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 67 71 S 5 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 68 71 S 5 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 69 71 S 5 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 69 70 W 13 13198 11740 2801 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 13 11574 11424 2485 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 13 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 13 11329 8939 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 7 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 7 11329 8939 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 57 57 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 SW 6 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 6 11526 11375 2436 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 64 68 SW 9 12776 11522 2583 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 66 71 SW 9 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 66 71 SW 9 13408 12744 3805 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 67 72 SW 9 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 68 72 SW 9 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 69 72 SW 9 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 13 13198 11740 2801 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 13 11574 11424 2485 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 13 11378 10202 1263 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 13 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 13 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 13 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 8 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 8 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 SW 7 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 59 SW 7 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 61 64 SW 7 11478 11325 2386 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 64 69 SW 9 12987 11570 2631 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 66 72 SW 9 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 66 73 SW 9 13826 13170 4231 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 67 73 SW 9 13826 13170 4231 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 69 74 SW 9 14034 13378 4439 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 70 74 SW 9 14034 13378 4439 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 70 72 W 14 13617 12961 4022 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 14 11835 11474 2535 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 14 11478 11325 2386 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 61 61 W 14 11329 8939 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 11279 8939 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 8 10222 8939 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 8786 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com