Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 SW 20 32 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 SW 20 32 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 SW 20 33 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 SW 20 33 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 SW 20 33 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 20 32 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 20 32 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 27 27 WSW 20 32 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 WSW 24 39 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 24 39 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 27 28 WSW 24 39 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 24 28 WSW 28 44 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 25 30 WSW 28 44 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 25 31 WSW 28 44 8879 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 24 29 WSW 27 43 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 29 WSW 27 43 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 27 WSW 27 43 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 24 25 WSW 14 24 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 25 25 WSW 14 24 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 24 24 WSW 14 24 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 22 22 SW 10 16 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 22 22 SW 10 16 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 SW 10 16 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 21 21 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 20 20 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 19 19 SW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 19 19 SW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 19 19 SW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 20 20 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 S 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 S 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 23 23 S 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 23 23 S 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 23 24 S 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 24 25 S 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 24 25 SSW 12 20 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 24 25 SSW 12 20 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 12 20 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 SW 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 24 24 SW 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 SW 11 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 8 12 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 SSW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 SSW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 24 24 SSW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 24 24 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 SSE 4 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 SSE 4 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 SSE 4 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 25 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 25 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 24 24 SSE 5 8 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 23 23 SE 6 10 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 23 23 SE 6 10 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 23 23 SE 6 10 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 23 23 SSE 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 23 23 SSE 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 23 23 SSE 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 23 23 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 23 23 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 SW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 WSW 9 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 23 23 WSW 9 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 WSW 9 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 10 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 10 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 10 17 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 22 23 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 22 23 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 23 24 WSW 9 14 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 23 24 W 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 23 24 W 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 24 25 W 8 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 24 24 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 24 24 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 25 25 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 25 25 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 N 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 N 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 N 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 21 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 20 20 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 20 20 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 21 21 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 WNW 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 24 24 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 25 26 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 25 27 NW 6 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 25 29 NNE 8 11 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 26 31 NNE 8 11 8879 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 26 31 NNE 8 11 8879 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 27 32 N 9 13 9354 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 28 32 N 9 13 9354 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 29 31 N 9 13 8879 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 29 30 N 9 13 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 29 29 N 9 13 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 28 28 N 9 13 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 27 27 N 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 N 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 N 8 11 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 NW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 NW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 NW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 WSW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 WSW 5 9 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 W 4 6 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 W 4 6 7510 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 W 4 6 7897 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 W 3 5 8394 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 32 W 3 5 9354 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 33 36 W 3 5 10769 9806 867 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 34 38 ENE 3 5 11303 10639 1700 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 35 41 ENE 3 5 12188 11278 2339 White 7
1 PM Tue 36 42 ENE 3 5 12410 11613 2674 White 8
2 PM Tue 37 43 NNE 3 5 12632 11945 3006 White 9
3 PM Tue 38 42 NNE 3 5 12410 11613 2674 White 8
4 PM Tue 39 42 NNE 3 5 12410 11613 2674 White 8
5 PM Tue 39 40 NNW 4 6 11965 10939 2000 White 6
6 PM Tue 38 38 NNW 4 6 11303 10639 1700 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 37 37 NNW 4 6 10961 10531 1592 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 36 36 W 4 6 10769 9806 867 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 35 35 W 4 6 10646 9348 409 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 34 34 W 4 6 10536 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]