Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 69 69 E 3 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 E 2 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 E 2 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 S 1 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 SW 3 7887 6670 978 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 81 85 SW 6 11532 11381 5689 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 85 90 W 6 13170 11676 5984 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 88 95 SW 6 14168 13518 7826 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 90 97 SW 7 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 92 98 SW 8 16196 14111 8419 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 93 99 SW 9 16743 14453 8761 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 92 96 SW 9 14695 13716 8024 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 92 94 SW 8 13969 13319 7627 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 91 91 S 8 13371 12611 6919 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 88 88 SE 7 12768 11523 5831 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 85 85 E 9 11532 11381 5689 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 83 83 E 5 11438 11286 5594 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 80 80 E 6 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 78 78 E 5 7887 6670 978 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 E 7 6785 5692 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 75 75 NE 7 6674 5692 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 73 73 NE 7 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 72 NE 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 N 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 N 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 73 N 2 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 79 NW 5 10420 6780 1088 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 83 87 NW 6 11879 11477 5785 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 86 91 W 6 13371 12611 6919 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 89 96 W 6 14695 13716 8024 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 91 97 SW 7 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 93 98 SW 8 16196 14111 8419 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 94 98 SW 8 16196 14111 8419 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 94 96 S 9 14695 13716 8024 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 92 93 S 9 13770 13120 7428 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 90 90 S 10 13170 11676 5984 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 87 87 S 10 11879 11477 5785 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 85 85 S 10 11532 11381 5689 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 83 83 S 9 11438 11286 5594 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 81 81 SW 7 11343 7844 2152 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 80 80 SW 6 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 SW 6 7325 6559 867 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 75 75 W 6 6674 5692 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 73 73 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 72 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 NW 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 NW 5 6563 5692 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 78 80 N 5 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 83 87 NE 6 11879 11477 5785 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 88 93 E 7 13770 13120 7428 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 91 98 E 8 16196 14111 8419 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 93 100 SE 10 17229 15228 9536 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 94 101 SE 12 17702 15950 10258 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 94 100 SE 12 17229 15228 9536 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 93 97 S 12 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 92 94 S 12 13969 13319 7627 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 89 89 S 12 12969 11570 5878 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 86 86 S 12 11579 11429 5737 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 83 83 S 12 11438 11286 5594 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 81 81 S 9 11343 7844 2152 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 80 80 SW 8 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 7887 6670 978 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SW 6 7325 6559 867 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 6 6785 5692 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 74 74 SW 6 6563 5692 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 72 72 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 SW 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 SW 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 S 6 6563 5692 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 7 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 83 87 SE 8 11879 11477 5785 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 87 93 SE 9 13770 13120 7428 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 90 97 SE 10 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 92 99 S 12 16743 14453 8761 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 93 100 S 13 17229 15228 9536 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 93 99 S 13 16743 14453 8761 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 93 97 S 13 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 91 93 S 13 13770 13120 7428 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 89 89 S 13 12969 11570 5878 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 13 11579 11429 5737 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 13 11391 10347 4655 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 79 79 W 8 10420 6780 1088 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 6 7325 6559 867 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 6 6674 5692 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 73 73 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 SW 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 SW 5 7887 6670 978 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 80 84 SW 5 11486 11334 5642 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 84 90 SW 6 13170 11676 5984 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 87 94 SW 7 13969 13319 7627 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 89 96 S 8 14695 13716 8024 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 91 98 S 9 16196 14111 8419 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 91 97 S 10 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 91 95 SW 10 14168 13518 7826 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 89 91 SW 10 13371 12611 6919 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 87 87 SW 10 11879 11477 5785 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 85 85 S 10 11532 11381 5689 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 82 82 S 10 11391 10347 4655 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 79 79 S 8 10420 6780 1088 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 7 7325 6559 867 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 6785 5692 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 W 5 6563 5692 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 73 73 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 NW 5 7325 6559 867 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 79 83 N 5 11438 11286 5594 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 83 89 NE 6 12969 11570 5878 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 86 93 E 7 13770 13120 7428 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 88 95 SE 8 14168 13518 7826 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 90 97 S 9 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 91 97 S 10 15472 13914 8222 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 91 95 S 10 14168 13518 7826 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 90 92 S 10 13571 12920 7228 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 88 88 S 10 12768 11523 5831 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 86 86 S 10 11579 11429 5737 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 83 83 S 10 11438 11286 5594 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 80 80 S 8 11295 7291 1599 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 78 78 SW 6 7887 6670 978 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 75 75 W 5 6674 5692 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 W 5 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 W 6 5180 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com