Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SSE 10 14 7255 6298 606 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 9 13 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 10 16 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 13 19 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 SSE 10 16 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 S 10 14 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SSE 12 17 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 13 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NNW 10 13 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 WNW 11 17 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 52 WNW 13 19 8370 8143 2451 White 5
11 AM Thu 52 56 W 18 26 9249 9249 3557 White 9
12 Noon Thu 54 59 W 18 26 9905 9905 4213 White 12
1 PM Thu 55 60 W 18 28 10123 10123 4431 White 13
2 PM Thu 55 59 W 18 26 9905 9905 4213 White 12
3 PM Thu 57 60 WNW 17 25 10123 10123 4431 White 13
4 PM Thu 55 56 WNW 18 24 9249 9249 3557 White 9
5 PM Thu 55 55 W 17 24 9030 9030 3338 White 8
6 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 13 19 8589 8589 2897 White 6
7 PM Thu 49 49 NNW 10 17 7706 6907 1215 White 2
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 11 17 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 11 18 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 10 14 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 8 11 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 N 6 11 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 10 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 N 5 9 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 5 8 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 5 6 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 N 4 5 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NNW 3 5 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 4 5 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 N 5 5 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 8 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 9 11 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 46 SSE 10 14 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 S 12 18 7706 6907 1215 White 2
1 PM Fri 49 49 S 14 21 7706 6907 1215 White 2
2 PM Fri 50 50 S 16 24 7928 7227 1535 White 3
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 17 24 8149 7678 1986 White 4
4 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 17 23 7928 7227 1535 White 3
5 PM Fri 49 49 SSW 16 20 7706 6907 1215 White 2
6 PM Fri 48 48 SSW 14 18 7484 6604 912 White 1
7 PM Fri 46 46 SSW 12 17 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 10 14 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SSW 9 13 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 S 8 11 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 S 8 11 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 SSE 8 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 SSE 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 SE 10 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 SE 10 16 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 SE 10 17 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 SE 10 17 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SE 10 16 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 SE 9 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SE 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SE 9 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 SE 9 11 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 SE 10 11 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 42 SE 11 13 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 SE 11 16 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 SE 12 18 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 44 SE 13 18 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 SSE 14 18 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 SSE 14 17 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 SSE 13 16 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 SSE 12 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 SSE 10 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 SSE 9 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 S 9 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 S 8 11 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 SSW 6 11 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 6 10 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 5 10 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 SW 5 10 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 SW 5 9 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SW 5 9 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SW 5 9 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 6 10 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 6 11 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 SW 8 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 SSW 8 12 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 42 SSW 9 13 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 S 9 14 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 45 S 10 16 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 46 S 10 16 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 46 SSW 10 16 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 46 WSW 10 14 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 W 10 14 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 WNW 10 14 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 NW 10 14 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 NNW 10 14 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 NNW 10 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 NNW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NNW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 9 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 9 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 10 14 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 NNW 10 16 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 11 16 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 40 NNW 11 17 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 44 NNW 12 17 6307 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 49 NNW 12 18 7706 6907 1215 White 2
12 Noon Mon 48 53 NNW 12 19 8589 8589 2897 White 6
1 PM Mon 50 55 NNW 13 19 9030 9030 3338 White 8
2 PM Mon 51 56 NNW 13 20 9249 9249 3557 White 9
3 PM Mon 52 56 NNW 13 20 9249 9249 3557 White 9
4 PM Mon 52 54 N 13 20 8810 8810 3118 White 7
5 PM Mon 52 53 N 13 20 8589 8589 2897 White 6
6 PM Mon 50 50 N 13 20 7928 7227 1535 White 3
7 PM Mon 48 48 N 12 20 7484 6604 912 White 1
8 PM Mon 46 46 N 12 19 6923 5989 297 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 12 18 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 11 17 5996 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 11 16 5682 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NNW 11 14 5366 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 13 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NW 10 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NW 10 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NW 8 13 5046 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NW 8 13 5047 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 NW 8 13 6616 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 52 NNW 9 13 8370 8143 2451 White 5
11 AM Tue 53 58 NNW 9 13 9687 9687 3995 White 11
12 Noon Tue 56 62 NNW 9 13 10546 10546 4854 White 15
1 PM Tue 59 65 NW 10 14 11181 11181 5489 White 18
2 PM Tue 60 65 NW 10 14 11181 11181 5489 White 18
3 PM Tue 62 66 NW 10 14 11392 11392 5700 White 19
4 PM Tue 62 65 NW 10 14 11181 11181 5489 White 18
5 PM Tue 62 63 WNW 10 14 10760 10760 5068 White 16
6 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 9 13 10123 10123 4431 White 13
7 PM Tue 58 58 NW 9 13 9687 9687 3995 White 11
8 PM Tue 55 55 NW 8 12 9030 9030 3338 White 8
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 8 12 8810 8810 3118 White 7
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 8 12 8370 8143 2451 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]