Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 7 3598 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 7 3182 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 W 7 3182 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 7 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 80 SW 8 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 SW 10 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 85 91 SW 12 11395 10397 5627 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 89 96 SW 14 11873 11477 6707 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 91 99 SW 16 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 93 100 SW 17 13350 12534 7764 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 93 99 SW 17 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 94 98 W 18 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 93 95 W 18 11580 11430 6660 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 92 92 W 18 11442 11290 6520 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 18 11301 7407 2637 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 86 86 W 18 7469 6589 1819 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 84 84 W 18 6708 5039 269 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 83 83 W 15 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 14 6490 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 12 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 W 10 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 W 8 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 W 7 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 76 76 W 6 4012 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 75 W 6 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 3598 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 N 6 3598 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 78 N 7 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 81 NE 6 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 85 NE 7 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 86 90 E 9 11348 7941 3171 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 89 94 E 9 11534 11383 6613 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 91 96 E 9 11873 11477 6707 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 93 98 S 10 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 95 99 S 10 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 95 98 S 10 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 95 96 S 10 11873 11477 6707 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 93 93 S 10 11488 11337 6567 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 91 91 S 10 11395 10397 5627 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 88 88 W 13 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 86 86 W 13 7469 6589 1819 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 84 84 W 13 6708 5039 269 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 83 83 W 9 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 W 9 6490 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 81 81 W 9 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 80 80 W 6 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 79 79 W 6 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 78 78 W 6 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 77 77 NW 6 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 77 77 NW 6 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 NW 6 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 79 N 6 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 83 N 6 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 84 88 N 6 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 87 93 SE 8 11488 11337 6567 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 90 97 SE 8 12759 11522 6752 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 92 99 SE 8 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 94 101 S 12 13546 12898 8128 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 96 101 S 12 13546 12898 8128 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 96 100 S 12 13350 12534 7764 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 96 98 S 13 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 94 94 S 13 11534 11383 6613 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 91 91 S 13 11395 10397 5627 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 88 88 SW 14 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 86 86 SW 14 7469 6589 1819 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 85 85 SW 14 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 10 6708 5039 269 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 10 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 10 6490 4770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 81 81 W 7 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 W 7 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 W 7 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 78 78 W 6 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 78 78 W 6 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 W 6 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 SW 6 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 SW 6 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 84 88 SW 6 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 87 92 S 10 11442 11290 6520 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 89 95 S 10 11580 11430 6660 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 92 99 S 10 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 93 99 S 17 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 94 99 S 17 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 94 97 S 17 12759 11522 6752 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 93 95 SW 20 11580 11430 6660 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 91 91 SW 20 11395 10397 5627 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 88 88 SW 20 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 86 86 SW 16 7469 6589 1819 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 16 6708 5039 269 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 16 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 12 6490 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 12 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 80 SW 12 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 79 SW 8 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 77 77 SW 8 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 76 76 SW 8 4012 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 W 6 4012 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 77 SW 6 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 SW 6 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 85 SW 6 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 84 89 S 10 11301 7407 2637 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 87 93 S 10 11488 11337 6567 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 90 96 S 10 11873 11477 6707 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 92 98 SW 17 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 93 98 SW 17 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 93 96 SW 17 11873 11477 6707 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 92 94 SW 20 11534 11383 6613 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 90 90 SW 20 11348 7941 3171 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 20 8114 6698 1928 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 18 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 83 83 W 18 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 82 82 W 18 6490 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 13 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 13 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 78 78 SW 13 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 77 77 W 9 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 76 76 W 9 4012 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 W 9 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3598 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3598 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 75 W 7 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 76 W 7 4012 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 W 7 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 85 W 7 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 84 90 W 10 11348 7941 3171 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 87 94 W 10 11534 11383 6613 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 90 97 W 10 12759 11522 6752 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 92 99 SW 15 13154 11668 6898 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 93 98 SW 15 12957 11568 6798 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 93 97 SW 15 12759 11522 6752 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 93 95 W 18 11580 11430 6660 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 91 91 W 18 11395 10397 5627 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 88 88 W 18 10628 6855 2085 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 85 85 W 16 6910 6412 1642 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 16 6599 4827 57 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 81 81 W 16 5046 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 80 80 W 12 4834 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 W 12 4629 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 78 78 W 12 4424 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 W 9 4218 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 75 W 9 3805 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 74 W 9 3598 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com