Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 SE 2 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SE 2 5892 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 SE 2 7024 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 S 3 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 S 3 11067 9604 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 76 80 S 3 16218 13806 4202 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 79 85 S 7 19236 17296 7692 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 82 89 S 7 21989 19651 10047 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 85 93 S 7 24234 22279 12675 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 87 94 S 8 24742 22851 13247 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 89 95 S 8 25429 23400 13796 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 90 94 S 8 24742 22851 13247 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 89 91 S 9 23160 21044 11440 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 86 87 S 9 20687 18465 8861 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 81 81 S 9 16877 14594 4990 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 76 76 SE 9 13122 10172 568 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 73 73 SE 9 10204 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SE 9 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 SW 6 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 6 8118 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 6 7393 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NW 6 6651 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 NW 6 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 4915 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 4915 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 3 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 6651 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 N 3 8118 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 N 3 11067 9604 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 76 80 N 3 16218 13806 4202 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 80 86 S 7 19970 17892 8288 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 84 91 S 7 23160 21044 11440 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 87 94 S 7 24742 22851 13247 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 89 96 S 8 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 90 96 S 8 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 90 94 S 8 24742 22851 13247 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 9 23160 21044 11440 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 86 86 SW 9 19970 17892 8288 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 9 17504 15328 5724 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 78 78 S 9 14782 12002 2398 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 75 75 S 9 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 9 9865 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SW 6 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 8474 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 5 7757 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 5 6651 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 5 5892 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 2 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NE 2 5892 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 2 7024 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 N 2 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 78 81 N 2 16877 14594 4990 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 82 87 SE 7 20687 18465 8861 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 85 91 SE 7 23160 21044 11440 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 88 95 SE 7 25429 23400 13796 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 90 96 SE 7 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 91 96 SE 7 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 91 95 SE 7 25429 23400 13796 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 89 91 SE 9 23160 21044 11440 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 87 87 SE 9 20687 18465 8861 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 83 83 SE 9 18104 16019 6415 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 78 78 SE 9 14782 12002 2398 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 75 75 SE 9 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 72 72 SE 9 9865 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 SE 5 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 5 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SE 5 8118 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 SE 5 7393 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SE 5 6651 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 5114 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 3 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 7024 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 SE 3 8474 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 SE 3 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 78 81 SE 3 16877 14594 4990 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 83 89 S 9 21989 19651 10047 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 86 93 S 9 24234 22279 12675 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 89 96 S 9 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 90 97 S 9 26815 24436 14832 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 92 98 S 9 27439 24943 15339 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 92 96 S 9 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 90 92 SE 13 23707 21678 12074 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 87 88 SE 13 21357 19017 9413 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 82 82 SE 13 17504 15328 5724 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 78 78 SE 13 14782 12002 2398 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 75 75 SE 13 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 73 73 SE 13 10204 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 S 6 9522 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 S 6 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 S 6 8474 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 S 6 7757 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 S 6 6651 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 S 6 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 5114 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 5506 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 S 3 7024 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 S 3 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 S 3 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 78 82 S 3 17504 15328 5724 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 82 88 S 9 21357 19017 9413 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 85 92 S 9 23707 21678 12074 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 88 96 S 9 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 90 97 S 9 26815 24436 14832 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 90 96 S 9 26149 23927 14323 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 90 94 S 9 24742 22851 13247 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 88 90 S 12 22588 20372 10768 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 86 87 S 12 20687 18465 8861 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 82 82 S 12 17504 15328 5724 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 12 14782 12002 2398 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 12 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 12 9865 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 S 6 9522 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 S 6 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 S 6 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 8474 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 7024 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 S 6 5892 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 NW 2 5114 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 5892 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 NW 2 7393 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 NW 2 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 NW 2 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 77 81 NW 2 16877 14594 4990 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 80 86 S 5 19970 17892 8288 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 83 90 S 5 22588 20372 10768 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 86 93 S 5 24234 22279 12675 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 88 95 S 5 25429 23400 13796 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 5 25429 23400 13796 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 89 93 S 5 24234 22279 12675 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 88 90 S 7 22588 20372 10768 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 85 86 S 7 19970 17892 8288 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 7 17504 15328 5724 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 78 78 S 7 14782 12002 2398 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 75 75 S 7 12163 9836 232 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 72 72 S 7 9865 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 S 5 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 S 5 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 S 5 9177 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 S 5 8827 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 S 5 7757 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 5 6274 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com