Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 W 6 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 W 6 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 65 65 W 6 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 67 69 W 6 12198 11490 3469 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 68 71 W 6 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 75 SW 8 13892 13236 5215 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 72 78 SW 8 15306 13857 5836 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 75 82 SW 8 17717 15912 7891 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 77 83 SW 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 78 83 SW 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 78 82 SW 10 17717 15912 7891 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 77 79 S 9 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 75 75 S 9 13892 13236 5215 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 73 73 S 9 13475 12819 4798 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 71 71 S 8 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 70 70 S 8 12847 11539 3518 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 69 69 S 8 12198 11490 3469 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 68 68 NW 7 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 7 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 66 66 NW 7 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 7 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 7 11297 8021 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 7 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 60 60 S 7 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 11297 8021 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 64 64 SE 6 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 66 68 SE 6 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 69 73 SE 6 13475 12819 4798 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 71 76 S 9 14099 13444 5423 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 74 80 S 9 16700 14293 6272 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 76 83 S 9 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 77 83 S 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 79 84 S 10 18744 17076 9055 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 79 83 S 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 78 79 SE 12 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 77 77 SE 12 14454 13651 5630 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 75 75 SE 12 13892 13236 5215 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 72 72 SE 12 13266 12086 4065 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 71 71 SE 12 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 69 69 SE 12 12198 11490 3469 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 68 68 NW 12 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NW 12 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 66 66 NW 12 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 64 64 NW 12 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 62 62 NW 12 11297 8021 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 61 61 NW 12 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 8 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 8 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 63 63 N 8 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 66 66 N 8 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 69 71 N 8 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 71 74 N 8 13684 13028 5007 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 73 78 E 10 15306 13857 5836 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 75 81 E 10 17216 15135 7114 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 76 83 E 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 77 83 E 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 78 83 E 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 79 83 E 10 18204 16565 8544 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 78 79 SE 12 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 76 76 SE 12 14099 13444 5423 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 73 73 SE 12 13475 12819 4798 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 70 70 SE 12 12847 11539 3518 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 69 69 SE 12 12198 11490 3469 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 68 68 SE 12 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 67 67 SW 8 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SW 8 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 8 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 64 64 SW 8 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 63 63 SW 8 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 8 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 6 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 6 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 65 65 SW 6 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 6 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 68 72 SW 6 13266 12086 4065 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 70 74 S 14 13684 13028 5007 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 72 77 S 14 14454 13651 5630 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 74 79 S 14 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 75 80 S 14 16700 14293 6272 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 76 80 S 14 16700 14293 6272 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 76 79 S 14 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 75 76 S 15 14099 13444 5423 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 73 73 S 15 13475 12819 4798 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 15 12847 11539 3518 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 15 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 66 66 S 15 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 15 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 9 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 9 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 9 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 9 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 9 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 9 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 11297 8021 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 66 67 SW 5 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 68 71 SW 5 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 70 74 S 14 13684 13028 5007 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 72 77 S 14 14454 13651 5630 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 73 78 S 14 15306 13857 5836 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 74 79 S 14 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 75 79 S 14 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 76 79 S 14 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 13 14099 13444 5423 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 13 13475 12819 4798 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 70 70 SW 13 12847 11539 3518 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 13 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 13 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 8 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 8 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 8 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 10407 8021 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 63 63 W 6 11347 8021 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 66 68 W 6 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 68 72 W 6 13266 12086 4065 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 70 75 S 10 13892 13236 5215 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 72 78 S 10 15306 13857 5836 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 73 80 S 10 16700 14293 6272 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 75 81 S 10 17216 15135 7114 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 76 81 S 10 17216 15135 7114 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 77 81 S 10 17216 15135 7114 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 77 79 SW 9 16091 14064 6043 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 9 13684 13028 5007 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 9 13057 11587 3566 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 9 11591 11441 3420 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 11543 11392 3371 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 11495 11343 3322 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 8 11446 11293 3272 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 11396 10381 2360 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 62 62 W 8 11297 8021 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 7976 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 7976 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com