Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 62 NW 6 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NW 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NW 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 N 6 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 71 73 N 6 11488 11336 2251 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 76 NE 6 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 75 81 E 7 13626 12972 3887 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 78 85 E 8 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 79 87 E 10 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 80 87 SE 13 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 81 87 SE 14 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 81 85 SE 14 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 80 82 SE 12 13830 13177 4092 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 78 78 SE 10 13009 11577 2492 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 76 76 SE 9 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 72 72 S 3 11440 11288 2203 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 11342 9853 768 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 2 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 5 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 5 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 NW 7 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NW 9 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NW 9 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 NW 9 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 NW 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 NW 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 N 7 11391 10337 1252 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 74 76 N 7 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 75 79 NE 7 13215 11858 2773 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 77 80 E 7 13421 12767 3682 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 79 83 E 8 14034 13381 4296 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 80 86 E 10 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 81 85 SE 12 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 82 85 SE 13 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 82 84 SE 13 14238 13585 4500 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 81 82 SE 13 13830 13177 4092 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 78 78 SE 13 13009 11577 2492 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 74 74 S 13 11536 11385 2300 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 71 71 S 12 11391 10337 1252 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 69 69 S 10 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 8 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 7 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 7 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 7 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NW 7 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 72 72 NW 7 11440 11288 2203 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 74 76 N 8 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 76 80 E 9 13421 12767 3682 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 77 83 SE 10 14034 13381 4296 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 79 86 SE 12 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 80 87 SE 13 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 81 87 SE 14 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 82 87 SE 15 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 82 85 SE 15 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 80 82 SE 15 13830 13177 4092 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 77 77 S 15 12802 11529 2444 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 74 74 S 14 11536 11385 2300 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 71 71 S 13 11391 10337 1252 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 69 69 S 12 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 69 69 SW 9 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 8 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 8 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 8 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 W 9 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 8 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 71 71 S 8 11391 10337 1252 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 73 75 S 9 11583 11433 2348 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 75 79 SE 10 13215 11858 2773 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 76 82 SE 13 13830 13177 4092 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 78 85 SE 14 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 80 88 SE 15 16996 14813 5728 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 81 87 SE 16 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 81 87 S 17 16485 14193 5108 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 80 84 S 17 14238 13585 4500 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 79 81 S 17 13626 12972 3887 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 76 76 S 16 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 15 11440 11288 2203 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 13 11342 9853 768 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 10 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 W 8 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 71 73 SW 8 11488 11336 2251 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 73 77 S 9 12802 11529 2444 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 75 81 SE 10 13626 12972 3887 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 76 83 SE 12 14034 13381 4296 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 77 85 S 13 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 79 86 S 14 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 80 86 S 15 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 84 SW 15 14238 13585 4500 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 79 81 SW 15 13626 12972 3887 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 14 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 13 11440 11288 2203 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 9 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 11294 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 71 73 SW 7 11488 11336 2251 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 72 76 S 7 12005 11482 2397 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 74 80 S 7 13421 12767 3682 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 76 83 S 8 14034 13381 4296 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 78 85 S 10 15012 13788 4703 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 79 86 S 12 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 86 S 13 15798 13991 4906 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 80 84 S 13 14238 13585 4500 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 78 80 S 13 13421 12767 3682 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 75 75 S 13 11583 11433 2348 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 72 72 S 12 11440 11288 2203 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 10 10382 9085 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 7792 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 7 7207 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 6 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 7 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 8 6795 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com