Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 50 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SW 7 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 61 63 SW 7 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 65 68 SW 7 13282 12154 2654 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 68 73 W 9 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 70 76 W 9 16790 14424 4924 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 71 78 W 9 17742 16047 6547 White 22
2 PM Sun 71 78 W 14 17742 16047 6547 White 22
3 PM Sun 71 76 W 14 16790 14424 4924 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 70 74 W 14 15422 13884 4384 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 69 71 W 14 13914 13257 3757 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 66 66 W 14 12859 11541 2041 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 14 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 11396 10375 875 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 11297 9500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 56 56 S 6 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 S 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 SE 3 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SE 3 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 SE 3 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 SE 5 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 61 63 SE 5 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 65 69 SE 5 13493 12836 3336 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 69 74 SE 7 15422 13884 4384 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 71 77 SE 7 17309 15268 5768 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 72 78 SE 7 17742 16047 6547 White 22
2 PM Mon 73 79 W 9 17957 16666 7166 White 23
3 PM Mon 73 78 W 9 17742 16047 6547 White 22
4 PM Mon 72 76 W 9 16790 14424 4924 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 71 72 W 10 14123 13466 3966 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 13493 12836 3336 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 13071 11589 2089 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 10 12244 11492 1992 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 62 62 W 10 11495 11343 1843 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 10 11346 9876 376 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 57 57 SE 9 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 9 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SE 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SE 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 SE 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SE 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 SE 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SE 7 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 SE 7 11346 9876 376 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 63 64 SE 7 11593 11443 1943 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 66 69 SE 7 13493 12836 3336 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 69 73 N 5 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 71 76 N 5 16790 14424 4924 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 72 78 N 5 17742 16047 6547 White 22
2 PM Tue 73 79 N 5 17957 16666 7166 White 23
3 PM Tue 73 78 N 5 17742 16047 6547 White 22
4 PM Tue 72 75 N 5 16210 14092 4592 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 70 71 W 10 13914 13257 3757 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 10 13282 12154 2654 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 10 12244 11492 1992 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 11396 10375 875 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 11346 9876 376 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 7 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 7 10390 9500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 7 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 11297 9500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 62 63 SW 6 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 68 SW 6 13282 12154 2654 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 68 71 W 10 13914 13257 3757 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 69 73 W 10 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 69 73 W 10 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 68 72 W 10 14123 13466 3966 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 67 70 W 10 13704 13047 3547 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 66 68 W 10 13282 12154 2654 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 65 66 W 15 12859 11541 2041 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 15 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 15 11396 10375 875 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 15 11297 9500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 15 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 6 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 6 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 SW 6 11446 11294 1794 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 63 66 SW 6 12859 11541 2041 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 66 70 W 12 13704 13047 3547 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 67 72 W 12 14123 13466 3966 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 68 73 W 12 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 68 73 W 12 14567 13676 4176 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 68 72 W 12 14123 13466 3966 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 12 13704 13047 3547 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 66 68 W 14 13282 12154 2654 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 14 11544 11393 1893 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 14 11396 10375 875 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 11297 9500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 14 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 S 8 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 8 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 S 8 11446 11294 1794 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 63 66 S 8 12859 11541 2041 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 66 71 W 12 13914 13257 3757 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 68 74 W 12 15422 13884 4384 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 69 76 W 12 16790 14424 4924 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 69 75 W 12 16210 14092 4592 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 12 15422 13884 4384 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 68 72 W 12 14123 13466 3966 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 67 69 W 15 13493 12836 3336 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 15 11593 11443 1943 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 15 11446 11294 1794 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 11297 9500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 15 9884 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 15 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SW 9 9085 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com