Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 3 7275 7237 237 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
8 AM Tue 62 63 NW 5 7361 7324 324 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 67 70 NW 6 7444 7410 410 Blue 24
10 AM Tue 73 78 W 7 9903 8171 1171 Blue 32
11 AM Tue 78 85 W 7 17705 11700 4700 Blue 39
12 Noon Tue 83 91 SW 7 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
1 PM Tue 85 93 SW 8 21537 18736 11736 Blue 47
2 PM Tue 86 93 SW 8 21537 18736 11736 Blue 47
3 PM Tue 87 92 SW 9 20174 18385 11385 Blue 46
4 PM Tue 89 92 SW 9 20174 18385 11385 Blue 46
5 PM Tue 90 91 SW 9 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
6 PM Tue 89 89 SW 9 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 8 17705 11700 4700 Blue 39
8 PM Tue 79 79 W 7 10436 8748 1748 Blue 33
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 7630 7444 444 Blue 27
10 PM Tue 70 70 NW 3 7444 7410 410 Blue 24
11 PM Tue 68 68 NW 2 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 1 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
1 AM Wed 65 65 N 0 7386 7348 348 Blue 19
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 0 7373 7336 336 Blue 18
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 0 7349 7311 311 Blue 16
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 0 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 1 7312 7275 275 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 7361 7324 324 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 67 68 N 6 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
9 AM Wed 71 74 NW 7 7841 7454 454 Blue 28
10 AM Wed 75 80 W 9 11042 9306 2306 Blue 34
11 AM Wed 78 85 W 12 17705 11700 4700 Blue 39
12 Noon Wed 81 89 SW 13 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
1 PM Wed 83 91 SW 14 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
2 PM Wed 86 93 SW 15 21537 18736 11736 Blue 47
3 PM Wed 88 93 SW 15 21537 18736 11736 Blue 47
4 PM Wed 90 93 SW 15 21537 18736 11736 Blue 47
5 PM Wed 90 91 SW 15 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 14 18244 17669 10669 Blue 42
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 13 15852 11350 4350 Blue 38
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 10 9903 8171 1171 Blue 32
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 7630 7444 444 Blue 27
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 7434 7398 398 Blue 23
11 PM Wed 67 67 SW 5 7410 7373 373 Blue 21
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 SW 3 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
1 AM Thu 65 65 SW 2 7386 7348 348 Blue 19
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 2 7361 7324 324 Blue 17
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 2 7336 7299 299 Blue 15
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 2 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 3 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 3 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 59 60 SW 6 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 63 66 SW 8 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 67 72 SW 9 7465 7434 434 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 73 80 SW 10 11042 9306 2306 Blue 34
12 Noon Thu 77 85 SW 12 17705 11700 4700 Blue 39
1 PM Thu 81 89 SW 13 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
2 PM Thu 84 91 SW 14 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
3 PM Thu 86 91 SW 14 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
4 PM Thu 88 91 SW 14 19742 18154 11154 Blue 45
5 PM Thu 88 89 SW 14 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
6 PM Thu 87 87 SW 14 18010 15673 8673 Blue 41
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 13 15238 10992 3992 Blue 37
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 10 10436 8748 1748 Blue 33
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 9 8200 7464 464 Blue 29
10 PM Thu 73 73 SW 7 7630 7444 444 Blue 27
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 5 7465 7434 434 Blue 26
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 3 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
1 AM Fri 68 68 SW 3 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
2 AM Fri 65 65 SW 2 7386 7348 348 Blue 19
3 AM Fri 62 62 SW 2 7349 7311 311 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 7312 7275 275 Blue 13
5 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 5 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 60 61 SW 5 7336 7299 299 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 62 64 SW 6 7373 7336 336 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 64 68 SW 7 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 66 71 SW 7 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 71 76 SW 8 8786 7623 623 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 78 83 SW 8 15238 10992 3992 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 85 89 SW 8 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
3 PM Fri 86 89 W 7 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
4 PM Fri 79 81 W 7 11404 9848 2848 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 6 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 7361 7324 324 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 5 7349 7311 311 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 7410 7373 373 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 71 71 W 3 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 71 71 W 2 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
11 PM Fri 69 69 SW 2 7434 7398 398 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 2 7386 7348 348 Blue 19
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 1 7336 7299 299 Blue 15
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 1 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 2 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 2 7312 7275 275 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 61 61 W 2 7336 7299 299 Blue 15
6 AM Sat 64 64 W 2 7373 7336 336 Blue 18
7 AM Sat 65 65 W 2 7386 7348 348 Blue 19
8 AM Sat 65 66 W 3 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
9 AM Sat 65 68 W 3 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 67 71 W 3 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 71 76 W 5 8786 7623 623 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 75 81 W 5 11404 9848 2848 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 80 86 W 7 17804 15065 8065 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 84 89 W 8 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
3 PM Sat 86 90 W 9 19078 17922 10922 Blue 44
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 10 18010 15673 8673 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 81 82 W 12 11754 10375 3375 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 12 9903 8171 1171 Blue 32
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 8786 7623 623 Blue 30
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 8200 7464 464 Blue 29
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 7630 7444 444 Blue 27
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 7 7444 7410 410 Blue 24
11 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 3 7349 7311 311 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 2 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 57 57 W 2 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 57 57 W 2 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 3 7287 7250 250 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 3 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 7324 7287 287 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 62 63 W 5 7361 7324 324 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 65 68 W 5 7423 7385 385 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 67 71 W 6 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 71 77 W 7 9353 7833 833 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 75 81 W 7 11404 9848 2848 Blue 35
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 8 17804 15065 8065 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 84 89 W 9 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 86 89 W 10 18477 17767 10767 Blue 43
4 PM Sun 85 87 W 12 18010 15673 8673 Blue 41
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 12 15238 10992 3992 Blue 37
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 9903 8171 1171 Blue 32
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 8200 7464 464 Blue 29
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 7841 7454 454 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 7465 7434 434 Blue 26
10 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 7454 7422 422 Blue 25
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 7434 7398 398 Blue 23
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 5 7398 7361 361 Blue 20
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 5 7349 7311 311 Blue 16
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 7299 7262 262 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 7275 7237 237 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 2 7275 7237 237 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 57 57 W 2 7287 7250 250 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com