Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 62 62 SE 3 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 68 69 SE 5 7363 7326 1176 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 73 76 SE 6 7445 7411 1261 Blue 24
10 AM Tue 78 83 S 7 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
11 AM Tue 82 89 S 8 15147 10963 4813 Blue 37
12 Noon Tue 85 93 S 8 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
1 PM Tue 89 97 S 9 19601 18089 11939 Blue 45
2 PM Tue 91 98 S 10 20036 18317 12167 Blue 46
3 PM Tue 93 98 SW 12 20036 18317 12167 Blue 46
4 PM Tue 94 97 SW 12 19601 18089 11939 Blue 45
5 PM Tue 93 95 SW 12 18415 17742 11592 Blue 43
6 PM Tue 91 91 SW 12 17684 11662 5512 Blue 39
7 PM Tue 87 87 SW 12 11380 9825 3675 Blue 35
8 PM Tue 83 83 W 9 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 8 7466 7435 1285 Blue 26
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 7424 7387 1237 Blue 22
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 5 7388 7351 1201 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 3 7363 7326 1176 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 7351 7314 1164 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 67 67 NW 2 7339 7302 1152 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 7315 7277 1127 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 63 63 NE 2 7290 7253 1103 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 7266 7228 1078 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 7266 7228 1078 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 7315 7277 1127 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 71 72 SE 5 7400 7363 1213 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 77 80 SE 6 7854 7455 1305 Blue 28
10 AM Wed 82 87 S 7 11380 9825 3675 Blue 35
11 AM Wed 86 93 S 8 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
12 Noon Wed 89 97 S 9 19601 18089 11939 Blue 45
1 PM Wed 92 100 SW 10 21640 19303 13153 Blue 48
2 PM Wed 94 101 SW 12 21917 19830 13680 Blue 49
3 PM Wed 95 100 SW 12 21640 19303 13153 Blue 48
4 PM Wed 95 98 SW 13 20036 18317 12167 Blue 46
5 PM Wed 94 96 SW 13 18831 17861 11711 Blue 44
6 PM Wed 92 92 SW 13 17782 14955 8805 Blue 40
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 13 11380 9825 3675 Blue 35
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 12 8801 7632 1482 Blue 30
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 7456 7424 1274 Blue 25
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 7412 7375 1225 Blue 21
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 7 7376 7338 1188 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SW 6 7363 7326 1176 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 67 67 SW 6 7339 7302 1152 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 66 66 SW 5 7327 7290 1140 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 5 7302 7265 1115 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 62 62 S 3 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 67 68 S 8 7351 7314 1164 Blue 16
9 AM Thu 73 76 S 10 7445 7411 1261 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 80 85 S 13 10421 8744 2594 Blue 33
11 AM Thu 85 92 SW 14 17782 14955 8805 Blue 40
12 Noon Thu 89 97 SW 16 19601 18089 11939 Blue 45
1 PM Thu 91 99 SW 17 21479 18545 12395 Blue 47
2 PM Thu 92 99 SW 18 21479 18545 12395 Blue 47
3 PM Thu 92 97 SW 18 19601 18089 11939 Blue 45
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 18 18415 17742 11592 Blue 43
5 PM Thu 90 91 SW 18 17684 11662 5512 Blue 39
6 PM Thu 88 88 SW 17 11726 10342 4192 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 14 7466 7435 1285 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 7435 7399 1249 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 74 74 S 9 7424 7387 1237 Blue 22
11 PM Thu 75 75 S 7 7435 7399 1249 Blue 23
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 S 5 7435 7399 1249 Blue 23
1 AM Fri 73 73 S 5 7412 7375 1225 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 69 69 S 3 7363 7326 1176 Blue 17
3 AM Fri 66 66 S 3 7327 7290 1140 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 63 63 S 3 7290 7253 1103 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 61 61 S 5 7266 7228 1078 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 61 62 S 7 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 64 66 S 7 7327 7290 1140 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 70 74 S 8 7424 7387 1237 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 77 82 SW 9 8801 7632 1482 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 83 89 SW 10 15147 10963 4813 Blue 37
1 PM Fri 87 93 SW 12 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
2 PM Fri 89 95 SW 12 18415 17742 11592 Blue 43
3 PM Fri 90 94 SW 13 18186 17645 11495 Blue 42
4 PM Fri 90 93 SW 13 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
5 PM Fri 89 90 SW 13 15752 11315 5165 Blue 38
6 PM Fri 86 86 SW 12 11024 9293 3143 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 10 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 9 7646 7445 1295 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 7 7445 7411 1261 Blue 24
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 6 7412 7375 1225 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 70 70 SW 3 7376 7338 1188 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SW 2 7339 7302 1152 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 1 7302 7265 1115 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 1 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 1 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 1 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 61 61 SW 2 7266 7228 1078 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 64 64 SW 2 7302 7265 1115 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 66 67 W 3 7339 7302 1152 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 68 70 W 5 7376 7338 1188 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 73 77 W 5 7456 7424 1274 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 78 84 W 6 9897 8178 2028 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 83 90 W 7 15752 11315 5165 Blue 38
1 PM Sat 86 93 W 8 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 88 94 W 10 18186 17645 11495 Blue 42
3 PM Sat 89 93 W 12 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
4 PM Sat 89 92 W 13 17782 14955 8805 Blue 40
5 PM Sat 88 89 W 14 15147 10963 4813 Blue 37
6 PM Sat 86 86 W 14 11024 9293 3143 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 13 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 12 7646 7445 1295 Blue 27
9 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 7435 7399 1249 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 7424 7387 1237 Blue 22
11 PM Sat 74 74 SW 7 7424 7387 1237 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SW 6 7400 7363 1213 Blue 20
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 5 7351 7314 1164 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 63 63 SW 3 7290 7253 1103 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 63 63 W 3 7290 7253 1103 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 65 66 W 5 7327 7290 1140 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 68 71 W 6 7388 7351 1201 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 72 76 W 7 7445 7411 1261 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 77 83 W 8 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 82 89 W 8 15147 10963 4813 Blue 37
1 PM Sun 85 92 W 9 17782 14955 8805 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 87 93 W 10 17956 15556 9406 Blue 41
3 PM Sun 89 94 W 12 18186 17645 11495 Blue 42
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 13 17782 14955 8805 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 88 89 W 13 15147 10963 4813 Blue 37
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 13 11024 9293 3143 Blue 34
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 12 9357 7839 1689 Blue 31
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 10 7646 7445 1295 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 7435 7399 1249 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 7412 7375 1225 Blue 21
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 6 7388 7351 1201 Blue 19
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 5 7363 7326 1176 Blue 17
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 3 7327 7290 1140 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 7278 7241 1091 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 3 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 2 7241 7204 1054 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 7254 7216 1066 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com