Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 52 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 57 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 64 SW 7 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 71 S 8 15159 10904 1804 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 68 76 S 8 18261 17674 8574 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 73 81 S 8 21140 18889 9789 White 13
2 PM Tue 76 83 S 8 21548 20103 11003 White 15
3 PM Tue 79 84 S 9 21749 21512 12412 White 16
4 PM Tue 82 85 SW 9 21949 21678 12578 White 17
5 PM Tue 83 84 SW 9 21749 21512 12412 White 16
6 PM Tue 83 83 SW 9 21548 20103 11003 White 15
7 PM Tue 80 80 SW 9 20270 18425 9325 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 18021 15660 6560 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 9 11671 10226 1126 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 53 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 58 SW 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 64 SW 10 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 69 SW 13 11304 9675 575 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 68 75 SW 14 18021 15660 6560 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 73 80 SW 14 20270 18425 9325 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 78 85 SW 15 21949 21678 12578 White 17
3 PM Wed 81 86 SW 15 22148 22046 12946 White 18
4 PM Wed 83 86 SW 15 22148 22046 12946 White 18
5 PM Wed 83 84 SW 15 21749 21512 12412 White 16
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 15 21344 19660 10560 White 14
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 14 20270 18425 9325 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 14 19218 17948 8848 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 13 18021 15660 6560 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 15159 10904 1804 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 12 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 10 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 10 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 10 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 10 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 12 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 12 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 W 12 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 SW 13 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 53 SW 14 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 58 SW 14 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 67 SW 15 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 75 SW 15 18021 15660 6560 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 73 81 SW 16 21140 18889 9789 White 13
2 PM Thu 76 83 SW 16 21548 20103 11003 White 15
3 PM Thu 79 84 SW 16 21749 21512 12412 White 16
4 PM Thu 81 84 SW 16 21749 21512 12412 White 16
5 PM Thu 81 82 SW 16 21344 19660 10560 White 14
6 PM Thu 80 80 SW 16 20270 18425 9325 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 15 18261 17674 8574 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 14 15800 11275 2175 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 13 11304 9675 575 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 9692 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 8 9114 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 54 SW 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 55 SW 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 58 SW 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 63 SW 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 71 SW 9 15159 10904 1804 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 76 79 SW 9 19825 18187 9087 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 79 81 SW 9 21140 18889 9789 White 13
4 PM Fri 75 76 SW 9 18261 17674 8574 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 68 68 SW 9 10929 9108 8 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 9692 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 8 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 W 6 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 W 5 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 W 5 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 66 W 3 9692 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 2 11671 10226 1126 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 68 73 W 2 17704 11640 2540 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 73 78 W 3 19218 17948 8848 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 77 81 W 5 21140 18889 9789 White 13
3 PM Sat 79 82 W 6 21344 19660 10560 White 14
4 PM Sat 78 80 W 7 20270 18425 9325 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 8 18021 15660 6560 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 9 15159 10904 1804 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 10929 9108 8 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 9692 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 9114 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 7 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 W 6 8517 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 65 W 6 9114 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 69 W 5 11304 9675 575 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 66 72 W 5 15800 11275 2175 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 70 77 W 5 18501 17776 8676 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 75 81 W 5 21140 18889 9789 White 13
2 PM Sun 78 83 W 6 21548 20103 11003 White 15
3 PM Sun 80 83 W 7 21548 20103 11003 White 15
4 PM Sun 79 81 W 8 21140 18889 9789 White 13
5 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 18261 17674 8574 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 12 17704 11640 2540 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 11671 10226 1126 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 10929 9108 8 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 10929 9108 8 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 10929 9108 8 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 10251 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 10 9114 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 10 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 8 7972 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com