Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 63 63 NW 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NW 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 68 SW 6 7695 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 71 S 6 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 68 75 S 6 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 70 78 SE 6 15556 11156 3356 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 74 82 S 7 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 79 86 S 8 20027 18300 10500 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 82 87 S 9 20513 18534 10734 White 18
4 PM Tue 84 87 S 10 20513 18534 10734 White 18
5 PM Tue 84 85 SW 12 19573 18066 10266 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 13 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 80 80 SW 13 17761 11862 4062 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 78 78 SW 12 15556 11156 3356 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 10 11943 10736 2936 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 75 75 W 8 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 7 10827 8966 1166 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 73 73 W 7 10113 8386 586 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 71 71 NW 6 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 NW 5 7481 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 NW 7 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 72 W 8 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 71 76 W 10 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 72 79 SW 12 17660 11517 3717 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 83 S 13 18384 17727 9927 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 78 86 S 14 20027 18300 10500 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 82 89 SW 15 20915 19846 12046 White 20
3 PM Wed 84 89 SW 15 20915 19846 12046 White 20
4 PM Wed 85 88 SW 15 20714 19303 11503 White 19
5 PM Wed 85 86 SW 16 20027 18300 10500 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 84 84 SW 15 18754 17831 10031 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 15 18754 17831 10031 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 14 18384 17727 9927 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 82 82 W 12 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 17911 15398 7598 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 9 17660 11517 3717 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 W 7 15556 11156 3356 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 6 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 75 75 SW 5 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 73 73 SW 3 10113 8386 586 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 3 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 3 7481 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 SW 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 SW 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 68 SW 7 7695 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 71 S 8 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 68 75 S 10 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 72 80 S 12 17761 11862 4062 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 76 84 S 13 18754 17831 10031 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 80 87 SW 14 20513 18534 10734 White 18
3 PM Thu 82 87 SW 15 20513 18534 10734 White 18
4 PM Thu 82 85 SW 16 19573 18066 10266 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 81 82 SW 17 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 80 80 SW 17 17761 11862 4062 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 16 17660 11517 3717 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 15 15556 11156 3356 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 77 77 SW 13 11943 10736 2936 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 9 10827 8966 1166 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 SW 8 10113 8386 586 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 70 70 SW 6 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 68 68 SW 5 7695 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 S 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 S 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 S 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 S 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 S 3 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 66 70 S 6 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 64 70 S 6 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 64 70 S 7 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 70 76 S 7 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 77 82 S 7 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 80 84 S 7 18754 17831 10031 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 77 79 S 6 17660 11517 3717 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 71 72 S 6 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 66 66 S 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 S 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 6 7481 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 6 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 6 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 6 7481 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 W 3 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 W 3 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 W 3 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 67 71 W 3 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 3 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 66 72 W 5 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 70 76 W 6 11562 10071 2271 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 76 81 W 8 17911 15398 7598 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 79 83 W 9 18384 17727 9927 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 78 80 W 12 17761 11862 4062 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 13 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 13 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 13 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 12 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 10 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 W 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 W 5 7909 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 72 W 5 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 68 72 W 5 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 65 71 W 5 8991 7800 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 65 72 W 5 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 69 75 W 6 11196 9527 1727 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 76 81 W 7 17911 15398 7598 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 80 83 W 8 18384 17727 9927 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 80 82 W 9 18148 17608 9808 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 10 11943 10736 2936 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 12 10113 8386 586 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 12 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 12 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 10 9561 7907 107 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 8401 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 7695 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 8 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 7 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 NW 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 7467 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com