Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
7 AM Tue 70 70 N 5 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
8 AM Tue 73 74 N 5 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
9 AM Tue 76 79 N 3 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
10 AM Tue 79 84 N 3 9151 7763 1263 Blue 31
11 AM Tue 82 89 N 3 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
12 Noon Tue 85 93 N 5 17741 11857 5357 Blue 39
1 PM Tue 88 96 N 6 18315 17700 11200 Blue 42
2 PM Tue 90 97 NW 7 18544 17797 11297 Blue 43
3 PM Tue 92 97 NW 9 18544 17797 11297 Blue 43
4 PM Tue 93 96 W 10 18315 17700 11200 Blue 42
5 PM Tue 94 95 SW 12 18086 15890 9390 Blue 41
6 PM Tue 94 94 SW 13 17856 15307 8807 Blue 40
7 PM Tue 92 92 SW 12 17643 11524 5024 Blue 38
8 PM Tue 89 89 W 10 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
9 PM Tue 87 87 W 9 10885 9086 2586 Blue 34
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 8 9151 7763 1263 Blue 31
11 PM Tue 82 82 NW 6 8012 7461 961 Blue 29
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 NW 5 7571 7441 941 Blue 27
1 AM Wed 78 78 NW 3 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
2 AM Wed 75 75 N 3 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
3 AM Wed 73 73 N 3 7396 7359 859 Blue 20
4 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
5 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
6 AM Wed 72 72 N 5 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
7 AM Wed 74 74 N 6 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
8 AM Wed 77 78 NW 6 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
9 AM Wed 81 84 W 8 9151 7763 1263 Blue 31
10 AM Wed 84 89 W 9 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
11 AM Wed 87 94 SW 10 17856 15307 8807 Blue 40
12 Noon Wed 90 98 SW 12 19321 17989 11489 Blue 44
1 PM Wed 91 99 SW 13 19845 18216 11716 Blue 45
2 PM Wed 92 99 SW 14 19845 18216 11716 Blue 45
3 PM Wed 93 98 SW 15 19321 17989 11489 Blue 44
4 PM Wed 94 97 SW 16 18544 17797 11297 Blue 43
5 PM Wed 95 96 SW 16 18315 17700 11200 Blue 42
6 PM Wed 95 95 SW 16 18086 15890 9390 Blue 41
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 15 17856 15307 8807 Blue 40
8 PM Wed 92 92 SW 14 17643 11524 5024 Blue 38
9 PM Wed 89 89 SW 12 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
10 PM Wed 85 85 W 9 9694 7969 1469 Blue 32
11 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 8012 7461 961 Blue 29
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 W 6 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
1 AM Thu 77 77 W 5 7442 7407 907 Blue 24
2 AM Thu 76 76 NW 3 7432 7395 895 Blue 23
3 AM Thu 74 74 N 2 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
4 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 7396 7359 859 Blue 20
5 AM Thu 71 71 NE 1 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
6 AM Thu 70 70 E 2 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
7 AM Thu 69 69 E 2 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 70 71 E 3 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 72 75 SE 6 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 75 80 S 7 7571 7441 941 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 79 86 S 8 10222 8533 2033 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 83 91 S 10 15505 11175 4675 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 87 95 S 12 18086 15890 9390 Blue 41
2 PM Thu 90 97 S 13 18544 17797 11297 Blue 43
3 PM Thu 91 96 SW 14 18315 17700 11200 Blue 42
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 15 18086 15890 9390 Blue 41
5 PM Thu 92 93 SW 16 17741 11857 5357 Blue 39
6 PM Thu 91 91 SW 16 15505 11175 4675 Blue 37
7 PM Thu 90 90 SW 15 12093 10822 4322 Blue 37
8 PM Thu 89 89 SW 14 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 13 11241 9621 3121 Blue 35
10 PM Thu 86 86 SW 10 10222 8533 2033 Blue 33
11 PM Thu 84 84 SW 9 9151 7763 1263 Blue 31
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 SW 8 8012 7461 961 Blue 29
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 7 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
2 AM Fri 76 76 S 6 7432 7395 895 Blue 23
3 AM Fri 73 73 S 6 7396 7359 859 Blue 20
4 AM Fri 70 70 S 5 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 5 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 5 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
7 AM Fri 70 70 S 5 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 71 72 S 5 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
9 AM Fri 72 74 S 5 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 72 76 S 5 7432 7395 895 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 73 78 S 5 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 76 82 S 6 8012 7461 961 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 82 88 SW 6 11241 9621 3121 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 87 92 SW 6 17643 11524 5024 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 89 93 SW 6 17741 11857 5357 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 84 86 W 6 10222 8533 2033 Blue 33
5 PM Fri 77 78 W 6 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 5 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 5 7442 7407 907 Blue 24
11 PM Fri 73 73 W 3 7396 7359 859 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 W 3 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 69 69 W 3 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 70 70 W 3 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
3 AM Sat 70 70 NW 2 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
4 AM Sat 70 70 NW 2 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
5 AM Sat 69 69 NW 2 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
6 AM Sat 69 69 N 2 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
7 AM Sat 70 70 NW 2 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
8 AM Sat 71 72 NW 3 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 71 74 W 3 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 71 75 W 3 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 71 77 W 5 7442 7407 907 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 73 79 W 6 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 79 85 W 8 9694 7969 1469 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 85 91 W 9 15505 11175 4675 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 88 92 W 12 17643 11524 5024 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 87 89 SW 14 11594 10142 3642 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 84 85 SW 15 9694 7969 1469 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 81 81 SW 16 7779 7451 951 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 15 7571 7441 941 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 80 80 SW 14 7571 7441 941 Blue 27
9 PM Sat 79 79 SW 12 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
10 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
11 PM Sat 71 71 SW 7 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SW 5 7335 7298 798 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 3 7335 7298 798 Blue 15
2 AM Sun 70 70 W 3 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 71 71 W 3 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 3 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 3 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
6 AM Sun 68 68 W 3 7335 7298 798 Blue 15
7 AM Sun 69 69 W 3 7347 7310 810 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 71 72 W 3 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
9 AM Sun 72 75 W 3 7420 7383 883 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 73 77 W 3 7442 7407 907 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 73 79 W 5 7462 7431 931 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 75 81 W 5 7779 7451 951 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 79 85 W 7 9694 7969 1469 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 85 90 SW 8 12093 10822 4322 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 89 92 SW 9 17643 11524 5024 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 89 91 SW 12 15505 11175 4675 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 86 87 SW 13 10885 9086 2586 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 13 8591 7556 1056 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 13 7779 7451 951 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 12 7779 7451 951 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 80 80 W 10 7571 7441 941 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 7452 7419 919 Blue 25
11 PM Sun 76 76 W 7 7432 7395 895 Blue 23
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 W 6 7408 7371 871 Blue 21
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 5 7396 7359 859 Blue 20
2 AM Mon 72 72 NW 3 7384 7346 846 Blue 19
3 AM Mon 71 71 NW 2 7372 7334 834 Blue 18
4 AM Mon 70 70 NW 1 7359 7322 822 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 69 69 N 1 7347 7310 810 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com