Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 S 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 S 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 S 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 70 S 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 75 S 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 80 SW 9 2170 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 79 86 SW 9 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 82 89 SW 9 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 85 92 W 9 6713 5342 3192 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 85 91 W 9 6293 4757 2607 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 85 89 W 9 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 84 86 NW 8 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 82 83 NW 8 2979 2169 19 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 79 79 NW 8 2062 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 75 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 81 W 6 2279 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 80 87 W 6 4346 3427 1277 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 82 89 W 6 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 85 90 W 8 5847 4332 2182 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 86 91 W 8 6293 4757 2607 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 86 89 W 8 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 85 86 W 8 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 82 82 W 8 2841 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 78 78 W 8 1953 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 75 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 72 72 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 NW 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NW 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 NW 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 W 1 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 81 W 6 2279 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 80 87 W 6 4346 3427 1277 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 83 90 W 6 5847 4332 2182 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 85 92 W 9 6713 5342 3192 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 86 92 W 9 6713 5342 3192 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 85 89 W 9 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 84 86 W 7 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 81 82 W 7 2841 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 1953 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 NW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 W 2 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 74 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 8 2062 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 78 85 W 8 3817 2837 687 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 80 87 W 8 4346 3427 1277 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 82 89 W 10 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 83 89 W 10 5393 4082 1932 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 82 86 W 10 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 81 83 W 12 2979 2169 19 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 78 79 W 12 2062 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 12 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SW 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SW 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 70 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 9 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 74 81 W 9 2279 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 77 84 W 9 3464 2277 127 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 79 86 W 12 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 80 86 W 12 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 12 3464 2277 127 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 78 80 W 12 2170 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 12 1844 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 12 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 76 W 9 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 81 W 9 2279 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 77 84 W 9 3464 2277 127 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 79 86 W 12 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 80 86 W 12 4102 2974 824 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 80 84 W 12 3464 2277 127 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 78 80 W 12 2170 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 76 77 W 12 1844 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 12 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 7 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 W 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 1801 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com