Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 S 3 3720 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 84 87 S 3 7471 6911 2911 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 89 94 SW 3 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 89 96 SW 3 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 91 99 SW 3 11083 10623 6623 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 92 99 W 7 11083 10623 6623 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 93 99 W 7 11083 10623 6623 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 93 97 W 7 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 92 94 W 8 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 90 91 W 8 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 8 7362 6618 2618 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 80 80 NW 2 5284 4007 7 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 75 75 NW 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 NW 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 N 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 NE 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 NE 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 NE 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 NE 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 70 NW 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 78 NW 3 4294 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 86 89 NW 3 8552 7348 3348 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 91 95 NW 7 9975 9168 5168 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 93 98 NW 7 10941 9923 5923 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 93 99 NW 7 11083 10623 6623 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 94 97 NW 9 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 94 97 NW 9 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 94 96 NW 9 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 93 94 NW 8 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 90 90 NW 8 8756 7457 3457 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 85 85 NW 8 7208 6173 2173 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 80 80 N 5 5284 4007 7 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 76 76 N 5 3720 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 72 72 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 N 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 N 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 NW 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 NW 5 4609 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 84 88 NW 5 7581 7176 3176 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 91 96 NW 7 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 94 101 NW 7 12099 10907 6907 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 94 101 NW 7 12099 10907 6907 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 94 101 NW 7 12099 10907 6907 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 94 100 NW 7 11225 10765 6765 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 94 98 NW 7 10941 9923 5923 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 93 95 N 7 9975 9168 5168 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 90 91 N 7 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 85 85 N 7 7208 6173 2173 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 80 80 N 3 5284 4007 7 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 75 75 N 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 N 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 NE 2 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SW 3 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 SW 3 3720 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 82 86 SW 3 7362 6618 2618 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 88 93 SW 7 9470 8721 4721 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 91 98 SW 7 10941 9923 5923 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 91 99 SW 7 11083 10623 6623 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 91 98 W 10 10941 9923 5923 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 91 97 W 10 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 90 94 W 10 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 89 91 W 13 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 86 87 W 13 7471 6911 2911 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 13 6213 4577 577 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 7 4294 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 85 W 5 7208 6173 2173 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 87 92 W 8 9215 8519 4519 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 89 96 W 8 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 90 98 W 8 10941 9923 5923 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 90 97 W 10 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 90 96 W 10 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 90 94 W 10 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 89 91 NW 12 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 86 87 NW 12 7471 6911 2911 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 82 82 NW 12 6213 4577 577 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 78 78 NW 7 4294 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 74 74 NW 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 NW 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 84 NW 6 6941 5720 1720 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 86 91 W 8 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 89 96 W 8 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 89 97 W 8 10799 9672 5672 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 89 96 W 10 10656 9421 5421 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 89 95 W 10 9975 9168 5168 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 90 94 W 10 9723 8923 4923 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 89 91 NW 13 8959 7566 3566 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 86 87 NW 13 7471 6911 2911 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 82 82 NW 13 6213 4577 577 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 77 77 NW 7 4012 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 73 73 NW 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 NW 7 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 NW 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 5 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 NW 6 3225 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com