Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 62 S 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 S 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 S 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 S 6 1345 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 73 S 6 1596 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 78 SW 9 1899 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 77 84 SW 9 3145 2223 23 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 79 86 SW 9 3959 2905 705 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 82 89 W 10 5159 3939 1739 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 82 88 W 10 4435 3656 1456 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 82 86 W 10 3959 2905 705 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 80 82 NW 8 2650 2200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 79 80 NW 8 2116 2200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 75 75 NW 8 1696 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 5 1495 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 5 1345 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 1 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 SW 1 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 1 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 70 SW 2 1445 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 75 SW 2 1696 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 79 W 6 2008 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 78 84 W 6 3145 2223 23 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 81 87 W 6 4242 3125 925 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 83 88 W 9 4435 3656 1456 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 84 89 W 9 5159 3939 1739 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 84 87 W 9 4242 3125 925 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 82 83 W 8 2910 2200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 79 79 W 8 2008 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 1696 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 71 W 6 1495 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 6 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 SW 2 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 SW 2 1345 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 SW 2 1596 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 79 W 6 2008 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 78 85 W 6 3673 2622 422 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 80 87 W 6 4242 3125 925 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 82 89 W 9 5159 3939 1739 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 83 89 W 9 5159 3939 1739 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 82 86 W 9 3959 2905 705 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 80 82 W 8 2650 2200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 8 2008 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 8 1646 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 6 1495 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 3 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 6 1345 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 SW 6 1546 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 77 W 9 1796 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 83 W 9 2910 2200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 78 85 W 9 3673 2622 422 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 80 87 W 12 4242 3125 925 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 80 86 W 12 3959 2905 705 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 79 83 W 12 2910 2200 0 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 78 80 W 12 2116 2200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 75 76 W 12 1746 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 12 1546 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 8 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 69 W 7 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 75 W 9 1696 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 80 W 9 2116 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 75 82 W 9 2650 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 77 84 W 13 3145 2223 23 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 78 84 W 13 3145 2223 23 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 78 82 W 13 2650 2200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 76 78 W 12 1899 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 73 74 W 12 1646 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 12 1445 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 6 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 65 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 W 7 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 75 W 10 1696 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 80 W 10 2116 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 75 82 W 10 2650 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 76 83 W 13 2910 2200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 77 83 W 13 2910 2200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 76 80 W 13 2116 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 75 77 W 13 1796 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 72 73 W 13 1596 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 13 1395 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 7 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 1329 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com