Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 17 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 ESE 4 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 4 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NE 4 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 3 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 3 4 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 4 5 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 5 5 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 NNE 9 12 1682 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 65 NNE 9 13 2080 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 68 N 8 11 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 66 69 N 8 11 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 67 70 N 6 11 2799 2351 151 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 68 71 NNW 8 11 3118 2488 288 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 68 70 NW 9 12 2799 2351 151 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 67 68 NW 10 12 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 9 11 2217 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 9 9 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 6 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 NE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 ENE 5 5 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NE 5 5 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 ENE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 5 5 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 5 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 4 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 4 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 4 6 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 ENE 4 6 1549 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 ENE 4 6 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 68 E 4 6 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 65 70 E 4 6 2799 2351 151 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 67 72 E 4 6 3504 2624 424 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 68 71 W 8 11 3118 2488 288 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 68 70 W 8 11 2799 2351 151 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 68 69 W 8 11 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 67 67 WNW 10 14 2354 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 10 14 1946 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 10 14 1549 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 9 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 WSW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 58 SW 5 8 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 63 W 6 10 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 65 W 6 10 2080 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 68 W 6 10 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 62 69 W 10 16 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 62 67 W 10 16 2354 2200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 62 66 W 10 16 2217 2200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 61 63 W 14 21 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 14 21 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 14 21 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 9 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 WSW 9 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 9 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 SW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 SW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 SW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SW 6 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 63 W 9 12 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 67 W 9 12 2354 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 61 68 W 9 12 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 62 69 WNW 13 17 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 63 69 WNW 13 17 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 63 67 WNW 13 17 2354 2200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 62 64 WNW 13 18 1946 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 WNW 13 18 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 WNW 13 18 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 W 11 14 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 WSW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 8 11 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 WSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 WSW 5 9 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 64 WNW 8 11 1946 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 68 WNW 8 11 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 62 69 WNW 8 11 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 64 70 WNW 11 16 2799 2351 151 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 64 69 WNW 11 16 2628 2215 15 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 64 68 WNW 11 16 2491 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 64 66 WNW 13 18 2217 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 13 18 1682 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 WNW 13 18 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 11 16 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 11 16 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 11 16 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 W 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 W 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 6 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 5 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 5 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 5 10 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 WSW 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 WSW 8 12 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 60 W 9 13 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 63 W 9 13 1814 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 64 W 9 13 1946 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 66 W 12 18 2217 2200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 60 65 W 12 18 2080 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 62 W 12 18 1682 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 60 W 16 20 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 16 20 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 16 20 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 13 19 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 13 19 1535 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 19 1535 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]