Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 74 SW 3 5945 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 75 78 SW 3 7307 6387 1437 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 76 81 SE 5 8326 7298 2348 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 79 85 SE 5 9377 8644 3694 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 80 87 SE 5 9893 9081 4131 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 82 89 SE 7 10759 9596 4646 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 83 89 SE 7 10759 9596 4646 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 83 87 SE 7 9893 9081 4131 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 82 84 SW 8 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 81 82 SW 8 8670 7408 2458 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 7068 5927 977 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 5469 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 10 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 E 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 E 5 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 71 SW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 SW 6 6411 4950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 76 79 SW 6 7418 6778 1828 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 78 83 S 5 8877 7519 2569 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 80 86 S 5 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 81 88 S 5 10614 9339 4389 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 83 90 S 6 10903 9851 4901 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 84 90 S 6 10903 9851 4901 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 85 89 S 6 10759 9596 4646 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 84 86 SW 9 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 82 83 SW 9 8877 7519 2569 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 9 7307 6387 1437 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 74 74 SW 9 5945 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 9 4926 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 71 71 SW 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 NW 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 N 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 75 N 6 6411 4950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 77 80 N 6 7529 7049 2099 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 79 84 W 7 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 82 88 W 7 10614 9339 4389 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 83 90 W 7 10903 9851 4901 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 84 91 W 7 11048 10551 5601 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 85 91 W 7 11048 10551 5601 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 85 89 W 7 10759 9596 4646 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 83 85 SW 9 9377 8644 3694 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 81 82 SW 9 8670 7408 2458 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 7307 6387 1437 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 6411 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 73 73 SW 9 5469 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 72 72 SW 9 4926 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 W 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 W 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 W 6 5945 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 75 78 W 6 7307 6387 1437 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 77 81 S 8 8326 7298 2348 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 79 84 S 8 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 80 85 S 8 9377 8644 3694 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 82 87 S 8 9893 9081 4131 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 83 88 S 8 10614 9339 4389 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 83 86 S 8 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 82 84 SW 13 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 79 80 SW 13 7529 7049 2099 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 13 5945 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 13 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 S 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 S 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 72 S 6 4926 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 S 6 6411 4950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 74 79 S 9 7418 6778 1828 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 76 82 S 9 8670 7408 2458 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 77 84 S 9 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 79 86 S 9 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 80 86 S 9 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 80 84 S 9 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 79 81 SW 12 8326 7298 2348 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 76 77 SW 12 7068 5927 977 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 12 5469 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 12 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 S 7 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 S 7 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 7 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 S 7 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 S 7 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 74 S 7 5945 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 73 78 S 8 7307 6387 1437 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 75 81 S 8 8326 7298 2348 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 77 84 S 8 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 79 86 S 8 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 80 86 S 8 9635 8850 3900 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 80 84 S 8 9116 8102 3152 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 79 81 SW 9 8326 7298 2348 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 76 77 SW 9 7068 5927 977 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 5469 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 70 70 SW 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 SW 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 8 4442 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com