Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 SW 6 6697 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 76 W 12 8614 7377 177 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 74 80 W 12 9581 8804 1604 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 78 85 W 12 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 13 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 81 86 W 13 11174 10712 3512 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 81 85 W 13 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 81 83 W 17 10735 9550 2350 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 17 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 17 9054 7601 401 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 72 72 NW 13 7250 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 68 68 NW 13 5758 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 NW 13 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 65 E 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 E 5 6697 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 76 SE 1 8614 7377 177 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 75 81 SE 1 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 77 84 SE 1 10881 9809 2609 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 79 85 S 1 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 81 86 S 1 11174 10712 3512 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 82 86 S 1 11174 10712 3512 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 82 84 N 6 10881 9809 2609 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 80 81 N 6 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 76 76 N 6 8614 7377 177 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 73 73 N 6 7382 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 69 69 N 6 6236 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 E 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 E 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 E 8 5758 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 8 7495 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 75 80 SE 2 9581 8804 1604 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 78 84 SE 2 10881 9809 2609 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 81 88 SE 2 12431 11004 3804 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 83 89 SE 2 12676 11149 3949 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 85 90 SE 2 12899 11742 4542 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 86 90 SE 2 12899 11742 4542 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 85 87 NW 3 11959 10858 3658 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 82 83 NW 3 10735 9550 2350 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 3 9054 7601 401 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 75 75 NW 3 7665 7237 37 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 3 7250 7200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 69 69 NW 3 6236 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 S 2 5270 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 S 2 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 S 2 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 S 2 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 1 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 1 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 SE 1 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 SE 1 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SE 1 7250 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 74 77 SE 1 8824 7489 289 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 78 81 SW 5 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 81 84 SW 5 10881 9809 2609 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 84 88 SW 5 12431 11004 3804 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 85 89 SW 5 12676 11149 3949 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 85 88 SW 5 12431 11004 3804 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 85 87 SW 5 11959 10858 3658 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 84 85 SW 9 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 9 10554 9289 2089 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 79 79 SW 9 9318 8595 1395 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 8614 7377 177 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 7382 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 6697 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 7 5758 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SW 7 5270 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 SW 7 5758 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 SW 7 7495 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 74 77 SW 7 8824 7489 289 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 77 81 SW 7 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 79 83 SW 7 10735 9550 2350 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 81 85 SW 7 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 82 85 SW 7 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 82 84 SW 7 10881 9809 2609 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 14 10735 9550 2350 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 14 9318 8595 1395 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 14 8614 7377 177 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 74 74 W 14 7495 7200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 14 6974 7200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 14 5758 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 SW 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SW 8 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 69 SW 8 6236 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 SW 8 7382 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 73 78 SW 7 9054 7601 401 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 75 81 SW 7 9842 9027 1827 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 77 83 SW 7 10735 9550 2350 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 79 85 SW 7 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 80 85 SW 7 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 81 85 SW 7 11028 10492 3292 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 80 82 SW 12 10554 9289 2089 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 9054 7601 401 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 12 7665 7237 37 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 7250 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 12 6236 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 12 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 5 5056 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com