Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 69 69 NW 6 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 66 66 NE 5 5520 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 74 75 NE 5 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 76 78 E 5 9059 7894 1726 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 79 83 SE 6 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 81 87 S 6 16311 15384 9216 White 22
12 Noon Tue 84 91 S 8 17126 16407 10239 White 26
1 PM Tue 85 93 S 9 17530 16921 10753 White 28
2 PM Tue 88 95 SW 10 17934 17655 11487 White 30
3 PM Tue 89 95 SW 12 17934 17655 11487 White 30
4 PM Tue 88 92 SW 13 17328 16574 10406 White 27
5 PM Tue 88 90 SW 13 16923 16264 10096 White 25
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 12 16106 13843 7675 White 21
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 10 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 10 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 8231 7532 1364 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 W 10 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 10 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 72 72 W 10 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 71 71 W 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 70 70 NW 8 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 70 70 NW 7 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 70 70 NW 6 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 73 73 N 6 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 78 79 N 5 9898 8194 2026 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 81 83 NE 5 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 82 86 SE 6 16106 13843 7675 White 21
11 AM Wed 84 90 S 6 16923 16264 10096 White 25
12 Noon Wed 86 93 S 7 17530 16921 10753 White 28
1 PM Wed 88 96 S 9 18135 18014 11846 White 31
2 PM Wed 89 96 S 10 18135 18014 11846 White 31
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 12 18135 18014 11846 White 31
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 12 17732 17291 11123 White 29
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 13 16923 16264 10096 White 25
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 13 15900 12895 6727 White 20
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 13 13137 9786 3618 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 13 9898 8194 2026 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 12 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 8231 7532 1364 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 10 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 73 73 W 10 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 72 72 W 10 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 71 71 W 10 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 73 73 W 8 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 75 75 SW 8 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 77 78 SW 8 9059 7894 1726 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 80 82 SW 9 13137 9786 3618 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 82 86 SW 10 16106 13843 7675 White 21
11 AM Thu 84 90 S 13 16923 16264 10096 White 25
12 Noon Thu 86 93 S 14 17530 16921 10753 White 28
1 PM Thu 87 94 SW 16 17732 17291 11123 White 29
2 PM Thu 88 94 SW 17 17732 17291 11123 White 29
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 18 17732 17291 11123 White 29
4 PM Thu 89 92 SW 18 17328 16574 10406 White 27
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 17 16687 16120 9952 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 15 15693 11875 5707 White 19
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 10910 8606 2438 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 9 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 10 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 73 73 SW 10 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 SW 9 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 8 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 71 71 SW 8 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 69 69 SW 7 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 69 69 SW 8 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 71 71 S 8 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 73 73 S 9 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 76 77 S 9 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 78 80 S 9 10910 8606 2438 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 79 83 S 9 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 81 87 S 9 16311 15384 9216 White 22
12 Noon Fri 83 90 S 10 16923 16264 10096 White 25
1 PM Fri 85 92 S 13 17328 16574 10406 White 27
2 PM Fri 86 93 S 14 17530 16921 10753 White 28
3 PM Fri 87 92 S 15 17328 16574 10406 White 27
4 PM Fri 87 91 S 15 17126 16407 10239 White 26
5 PM Fri 85 87 S 14 16311 15384 9216 White 22
6 PM Fri 82 82 S 13 13137 9786 3618 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 79 79 S 10 9898 8194 2026 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 76 76 S 9 8231 7532 1364 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 74 74 S 8 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 73 73 S 8 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 72 72 S 9 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 8 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 8 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 8 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 69 69 SW 8 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 68 68 SW 8 5727 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 68 68 SW 8 5727 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 69 69 S 8 6197 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 71 71 S 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 74 75 S 9 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 76 78 S 9 9059 7894 1726 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 79 83 S 9 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 81 87 S 9 16311 15384 9216 White 22
12 Noon Sat 83 90 SW 10 16923 16264 10096 White 25
1 PM Sat 85 93 SW 12 17530 16921 10753 White 28
2 PM Sat 86 93 SW 13 17530 16921 10753 White 28
3 PM Sat 87 92 SW 14 17328 16574 10406 White 27
4 PM Sat 87 91 SW 14 17126 16407 10239 White 26
5 PM Sat 86 88 SW 13 16468 15961 9793 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 83 83 SW 13 14095 10687 4519 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 10910 8606 2438 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 10 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 10 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 74 74 SW 10 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SW 9 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 73 73 SW 9 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 72 72 W 9 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 71 71 W 8 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 70 70 W 9 6934 6168 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 74 74 SW 8 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 76 77 SW 8 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 78 80 SW 8 10910 8606 2438 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 80 84 SW 8 15693 11875 5707 White 19
11 AM Sun 82 88 SW 8 16468 15961 9793 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 84 91 SW 9 17126 16407 10239 White 26
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 10 17328 16574 10406 White 27
2 PM Sun 87 94 SW 12 17732 17291 11123 White 29
3 PM Sun 88 93 SW 12 17530 16921 10753 White 28
4 PM Sun 88 91 SW 12 17126 16407 10239 White 26
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 12 16687 16120 9952 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 12 15693 11875 5707 White 19
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 12 12106 9011 2843 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 12 8647 7714 1546 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 8231 7532 1364 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 7908 7351 1183 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 74 74 SW 12 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 W 10 7727 7169 1001 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 10 7544 6901 733 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 72 72 W 9 7362 6179 11 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 7179 6168 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com