Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 23 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 3 6 11795 9589 3421 White 5
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 2 5 10715 6226 58 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 2 5 9827 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 6 8357 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 61 61 SSW 3 6 6320 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 SSW 3 7 5671 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 S 4 8 12216 11275 5107 White 7
7 AM Tue 65 65 S 4 8 11411 8197 2029 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 69 70 S 5 5 12635 12635 6467 White 9
9 AM Tue 72 75 SSW 5 6 13677 13677 7509 White 14
10 AM Tue 74 79 SSW 7 8 14497 14497 8329 White 18
11 AM Tue 76 83 SW 10 12 15305 15305 9137 White 22
12 Noon Tue 77 85 SW 13 14 15708 15708 9540 White 24
1 PM Tue 79 87 SW 14 16 16109 16109 9941 White 26
2 PM Tue 79 86 SW 15 17 15908 15908 9740 White 25
3 PM Tue 79 84 WSW 16 18 15507 15507 9339 White 23
4 PM Tue 79 82 WSW 15 18 15104 15104 8936 White 21
5 PM Tue 78 79 WSW 15 17 14497 14497 8329 White 18
6 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 13 15 14091 14091 7923 White 16
7 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 11 13 13677 13677 7509 White 14
8 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 8 11 13053 13053 6885 White 11
9 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 8 12 12425 12425 6257 White 8
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 6 10 11795 9589 3421 White 5
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 4 8 9827 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SSW 4 9 6320 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 5 10 5362 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 4 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 4 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 4 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 5 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 5 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 7 5362 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 SSW 6 7 9827 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 67 SSW 7 8 12005 10588 4420 White 6
10 AM Wed 67 72 SW 10 11 13053 13053 6885 White 11
11 AM Wed 69 76 SSW 10 12 13885 13885 7717 White 15
12 Noon Wed 71 79 SW 14 16 14497 14497 8329 White 18
1 PM Wed 72 80 SW 14 16 14700 14700 8532 White 19
2 PM Wed 73 80 SW 15 17 14700 14700 8532 White 19
3 PM Wed 74 79 SW 16 18 14497 14497 8329 White 18
4 PM Wed 74 77 SW 17 19 14091 14091 7923 White 16
5 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 17 20 13469 13469 7301 White 13
6 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 17 20 12844 12844 6676 White 10
7 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 17 20 12425 12425 6257 White 8
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 15 17 12005 10588 4420 White 6
9 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 13 15 10715 6226 58 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 12 14 8357 6168 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 10 12 5362 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SSW 8 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 10 13 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 13 14 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 12 14 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 SW 13 14 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 12 14 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 12 13 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 11 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 SW 8 10 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 59 SW 8 9 5362 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 63 SW 8 10 9827 6168 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 10 12 9827 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 64 71 WSW 12 14 12844 12844 6676 White 10
1 PM Thu 66 73 SW 14 16 13262 13262 7094 White 12
2 PM Thu 68 74 SW 16 19 13469 13469 7301 White 13
3 PM Thu 69 73 SW 17 20 13262 13262 7094 White 12
4 PM Thu 69 71 SW 17 20 12844 12844 6676 White 10
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 20 23 12635 12635 6467 White 9
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 22 25 12216 11275 5107 White 7
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 22 26 11411 8197 2029 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 25 29 8357 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 59 59 SW 23 27 5362 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 19 22 5105 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 19 22 5105 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]