Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 SE 1 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 SE 1 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 67 70 SE 1 8497 8131 931 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 71 76 SW 6 11615 9719 2519 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 74 80 SW 6 12964 12041 4841 White 16
1 PM Tue 77 84 SW 6 13809 13463 6263 White 20
2 PM Tue 78 85 W 8 14019 14019 6819 White 21
3 PM Tue 80 86 W 8 14228 14228 7028 White 22
4 PM Tue 80 84 W 8 13809 13463 6263 White 20
5 PM Tue 80 82 W 10 13390 13059 5859 White 18
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 10 12751 11515 4315 White 15
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 10 11253 9370 2170 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 8 8741 8249 1049 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 6330 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 7 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SW 7 5627 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SW 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SW 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 W 1 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 W 1 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 67 69 W 1 8378 7971 771 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 71 74 W 5 11114 8714 1514 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 73 76 W 5 11615 9719 2519 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 75 79 W 5 12751 11515 4315 White 15
2 PM Wed 77 81 W 7 13178 12844 5644 White 17
3 PM Wed 78 81 W 7 13178 12844 5644 White 17
4 PM Wed 78 80 W 7 12964 12041 4841 White 16
5 PM Wed 77 78 W 10 12536 11229 4029 White 14
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 11253 9370 2170 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 9399 8368 1168 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 8378 7971 771 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 10 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 NE 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 64 NE 6 6330 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 67 N 3 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 66 71 N 3 8741 8249 1049 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 69 74 N 3 11114 8714 1514 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 72 77 N 3 12322 11090 3890 White 13
3 PM Thu 74 78 N 3 12536 11229 4029 White 14
4 PM Thu 76 79 N 3 12751 11515 4315 White 15
5 PM Thu 76 78 N 5 12536 11229 4029 White 14
6 PM Thu 74 74 N 5 11114 8714 1514 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 71 71 N 5 8741 8249 1049 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 67 67 N 5 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 64 64 N 5 6330 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 N 5 5627 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 7 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NE 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 2 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 NE 2 8020 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 69 72 NE 2 9399 8368 1168 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 73 78 SW 10 12536 11229 4029 White 14
12 Noon Fri 76 82 SW 10 13390 13059 5859 White 18
1 PM Fri 78 84 SW 10 13809 13463 6263 White 20
2 PM Fri 80 86 SW 10 14228 14228 7028 White 22
3 PM Fri 83 88 SW 10 14645 14645 7445 White 24
4 PM Fri 84 88 SW 10 14645 14645 7445 White 24
5 PM Fri 84 86 W 14 14228 14228 7028 White 22
6 PM Fri 82 83 W 14 13600 13273 6073 White 19
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 14 12536 11229 4029 White 14
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 14 11253 9370 2170 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 14 9399 8368 1168 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 14 8378 7971 771 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 6 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 6 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 3 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 SW 3 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SW 3 5627 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 SW 3 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 68 69 SW 3 8378 7971 771 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 71 74 SW 3 11114 8714 1514 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 74 79 W 8 12751 11515 4315 White 15
12 Noon Sat 77 83 W 8 13600 13273 6073 White 19
1 PM Sat 79 85 W 8 14019 14019 6819 White 21
2 PM Sat 81 87 W 8 14437 14437 7237 White 23
3 PM Sat 82 87 W 8 14437 14437 7237 White 23
4 PM Sat 83 87 W 8 14437 14437 7237 White 23
5 PM Sat 82 84 W 12 13809 13463 6263 White 20
6 PM Sat 80 81 W 12 13178 12844 5644 White 17
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 12 12322 11090 3890 White 13
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 9812 8486 1286 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 8497 8131 931 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 5 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 5 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NW 5 5627 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 SW 3 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 SW 3 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 SW 3 6330 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 SW 3 8378 7971 771 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 71 74 SW 3 11114 8714 1514 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 74 79 W 8 12751 11515 4315 White 15
12 Noon Sun 76 82 W 8 13390 13059 5859 White 18
1 PM Sun 79 86 W 8 14228 14228 7028 White 22
2 PM Sun 81 88 W 8 14645 14645 7445 White 24
3 PM Sun 82 88 W 8 14645 14645 7445 White 24
4 PM Sun 83 87 W 8 14437 14437 7237 White 23
5 PM Sun 82 84 W 13 13809 13463 6263 White 20
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 13 13178 12844 5644 White 17
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 13 12322 11090 3890 White 13
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 13 9812 8486 1286 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 13 8497 8131 931 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 13 8140 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 65 65 NW 6 7117 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NW 6 5980 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 NW 6 5627 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 NW 6 5591 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com