Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 S 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 S 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 S 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 W 1 3319 3700 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 77 80 W 1 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 81 85 N 2 6467 5356 1656 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 83 88 N 2 8155 6402 2702 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 87 93 N 2 9368 8360 4660 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 88 94 W 5 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 89 94 W 5 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 90 94 W 5 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 88 89 NW 9 8269 7212 3512 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 85 85 NW 9 6467 5356 1656 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 83 83 NW 9 5786 4937 1237 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 3 4112 3700 0 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 3 2783 3700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 3 2427 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 66 66 NE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 E 2 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 2 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 E 2 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 0 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 0 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 0 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 SW 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 68 SW 1 2361 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 72 73 SW 1 3052 3700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 75 76 N 2 3849 3700 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 75 76 N 2 3849 3700 0 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 76 78 N 2 4374 3700 0 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 78 80 W 5 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 79 80 W 5 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 78 79 W 5 4765 3834 134 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 76 77 NW 9 4112 3700 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 73 73 NW 9 3052 3700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 71 71 NW 9 2560 3700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 69 69 NW 9 2427 3700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 9 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 9 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 N 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 70 N 3 2494 3700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 73 76 N 6 3849 3700 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 76 80 N 6 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 79 84 N 6 6118 5150 1450 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 82 87 N 6 8042 6076 2376 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 84 88 N 6 8155 6402 2702 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 85 88 N 6 8155 6402 2702 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 85 87 N 8 8042 6076 2376 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 83 84 N 8 6118 5150 1450 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 79 79 N 8 4765 3834 134 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 75 75 N 8 3585 3700 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 8 2494 3700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 66 66 N 8 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 3 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 E 1 2361 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 74 77 E 1 4112 3700 0 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 80 84 NW 6 6118 5150 1450 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 84 89 NW 6 8269 7212 3512 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 87 92 NW 6 8727 8246 4546 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 90 95 NW 6 10870 8669 4969 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 92 97 NW 6 11406 9552 5852 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 93 96 NW 6 11206 9123 5423 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 92 94 NW 8 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 89 90 NW 8 8383 8020 4320 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 85 85 NW 8 6467 5356 1656 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 80 80 NW 8 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 75 75 NW 8 3585 3700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 71 71 NW 8 2560 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 68 68 W 1 2361 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 SE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 SE 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 72 SE 1 2783 3700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 77 80 SE 1 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 82 86 N 3 7353 5747 2047 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 86 92 N 3 8727 8246 4546 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 88 94 N 3 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 90 96 N 3 11206 9123 5423 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 92 97 N 3 11406 9552 5852 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 93 97 N 3 11406 9552 5852 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 92 94 NW 6 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 89 90 NW 6 8383 8020 4320 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 85 85 NW 6 6467 5356 1656 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 80 80 NW 6 4963 4095 395 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 75 75 NW 6 3585 3700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 71 71 NW 6 2560 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 1 2361 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 E 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 E 1 2560 3700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 75 78 E 1 4374 3700 0 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 80 85 N 3 6467 5356 1656 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 84 90 N 3 8383 8020 4320 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 87 94 N 3 9681 8473 4773 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 89 95 N 3 10870 8669 4969 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 91 97 N 3 11406 9552 5852 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 92 96 N 3 11206 9123 5423 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 91 93 NW 8 9368 8360 4660 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 88 89 NW 8 8269 7212 3512 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 84 84 NW 8 6118 5150 1450 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 8 4765 3834 134 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 75 75 NW 8 3585 3700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 71 71 NW 8 2560 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 1 2361 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 N 1 1857 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com