Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 80 80 E 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 79 79 E 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 82 83 SE 6 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 89 92 SE 6 3324 3110 340 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 95 100 E 6 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 100 107 N 6 15929 11137 8367 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 104 112 N 6 18161 16439 13669 White 32
1 PM Tue 106 114 NW 6 18535 17381 14611 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 107 114 NW 7 18535 17381 14611 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 108 113 NW 8 18355 16703 13933 White 33
4 PM Tue 109 112 NW 9 18161 16439 13669 White 32
5 PM Tue 110 111 NW 10 17967 16176 13406 White 31
6 PM Tue 109 109 NW 10 16528 14760 11990 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 107 107 NW 10 15929 11137 8367 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 104 104 NW 10 11479 7720 4950 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 100 100 N 10 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 97 97 N 8 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 94 94 N 6 3548 3251 481 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 92 92 N 5 3324 3110 340 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 89 89 NE 5 3111 2898 128 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 87 87 E 6 2970 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 86 86 SE 6 2899 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 84 84 SE 6 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 83 83 SE 6 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 81 81 SE 7 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 80 80 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 83 84 SE 8 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 89 92 SE 8 3324 3110 340 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 95 99 S 7 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 100 105 S 6 13876 8514 5744 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 104 110 S 5 16871 15725 12955 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 107 113 SW 6 18355 16703 13933 White 33
2 PM Wed 107 112 W 7 18161 16439 13669 White 32
3 PM Wed 109 113 NW 9 18355 16703 13933 White 33
4 PM Wed 110 112 NW 10 18161 16439 13669 White 32
5 PM Wed 110 111 NW 10 17967 16176 13406 White 31
6 PM Wed 110 110 NW 12 16871 15725 12955 Blue 30
7 PM Wed 108 108 W 9 16338 13599 10829 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 105 105 W 8 13876 8514 5744 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 100 100 W 7 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 96 96 SW 7 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 94 94 S 8 3548 3251 481 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 91 91 S 9 3253 3039 269 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 88 88 S 9 3040 2827 57 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 86 86 S 9 2899 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 84 84 S 9 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 83 83 S 9 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 81 81 SE 9 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 80 80 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 82 S 7 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 86 89 SW 6 3111 2898 128 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 92 96 SW 6 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 96 102 W 5 8663 6132 3362 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 99 105 W 5 13876 8514 5744 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 101 107 W 6 15929 11137 8367 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 102 107 W 7 15929 11137 8367 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 103 107 W 9 15929 11137 8367 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 104 106 W 10 15293 9833 7063 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 104 105 W 12 13876 8514 5744 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 104 104 W 13 11479 7720 4950 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 102 102 W 13 8663 6132 3362 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 100 100 SW 12 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 96 96 SW 10 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 93 93 SW 9 3394 3180 410 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 90 90 S 8 3182 2968 198 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 88 88 S 8 3040 2827 57 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 86 86 S 7 2899 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 84 84 S 7 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 82 82 S 7 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 81 81 S 7 2546 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 80 80 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 78 78 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 77 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 80 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 85 SW 6 2828 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 88 90 SW 6 3182 2968 198 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 92 95 W 5 3864 3322 552 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 94 98 W 5 5469 3850 1080 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 96 100 W 5 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 96 100 W 6 6988 4468 1698 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 98 101 W 6 7859 5398 2628 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 98 99 W 7 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 98 98 NW 8 5469 3850 1080 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 98 98 NW 8 5469 3850 1080 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 96 96 W 8 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 94 94 W 8 3548 3251 481 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 91 91 SW 8 3253 3039 269 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 88 88 S 8 3040 2827 57 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 86 86 S 8 2899 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 84 84 S 7 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 82 82 S 7 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 80 80 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 79 79 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 78 78 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 77 77 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 76 76 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 82 W 6 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 85 87 W 6 2970 2770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 89 92 NW 6 3324 3110 340 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 92 96 NW 6 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 93 97 NW 6 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 94 97 NW 6 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 95 97 W 6 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 95 96 W 6 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 96 96 W 6 4177 3392 622 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 95 95 W 6 3864 3322 552 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 94 94 W 6 3548 3251 481 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 92 92 W 6 3324 3110 340 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 89 89 SW 6 3111 2898 128 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 87 87 SW 6 2970 2770 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 85 85 S 6 2828 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 S 6 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 82 82 S 6 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 80 80 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 79 79 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 82 83 W 6 2687 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 86 89 W 7 3111 2898 128 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 90 94 W 7 3548 3251 481 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 93 97 W 7 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 95 99 W 8 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 95 99 W 8 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 96 99 W 8 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 97 99 W 9 6216 4160 1390 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 97 98 W 9 5469 3850 1080 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 97 97 W 9 4488 3537 767 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 95 95 W 9 3864 3322 552 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 93 93 W 8 3394 3180 410 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 90 90 W 8 3182 2968 198 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 88 88 W 7 3040 2827 57 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 86 86 SW 7 2899 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 SW 6 2758 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 82 82 SW 6 2616 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 80 80 SW 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 79 79 W 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 W 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 77 77 W 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com