Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 70 70 N 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 NE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 84 87 NE 6 10007 6656 456 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 90 94 NE 7 17266 15880 9680 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 92 98 NE 8 18591 17990 11790 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 94 100 N 8 19034 18449 12249 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 95 102 N 9 21132 18679 12479 White 18
2 PM Tue 97 103 N 10 21328 18890 12690 White 19
3 PM Tue 99 103 N 10 21328 18890 12690 White 19
4 PM Tue 98 101 N 12 19439 18547 12347 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 97 98 NW 12 18591 17990 11790 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 96 96 NW 12 18379 16520 10320 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 93 93 NW 10 16641 15113 8913 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 87 87 NW 9 10007 6656 456 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 82 82 NW 8 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 81 81 N 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 80 80 N 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 NE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 77 NE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 E 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 SE 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 SE 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 SE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 SE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 SE 6 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 SE 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 86 SE 7 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 89 93 SE 6 16641 15113 8913 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 92 97 NE 5 18492 16867 10667 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 94 99 N 5 18775 18307 12107 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 94 99 N 7 18775 18307 12107 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 96 100 NW 9 19034 18449 12249 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 98 101 W 12 19439 18547 12347 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 97 99 W 12 18775 18307 12107 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 96 97 W 10 18492 16867 10667 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 95 95 W 9 18214 16324 10124 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 92 92 W 9 16396 13739 7539 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 85 85 SW 8 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 80 80 S 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 79 79 S 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 S 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 SW 13 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 S 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 S 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 SW 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 82 W 9 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 85 88 W 8 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 87 91 W 8 16048 11198 4998 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 89 94 NW 8 17266 15880 9680 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 90 95 NW 8 18214 16324 10124 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 91 95 W 9 18214 16324 10124 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 93 96 W 10 18379 16520 10320 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 92 94 W 12 17266 15880 9680 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 92 92 W 13 16396 13739 7539 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 91 91 W 14 16048 11198 4998 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 88 88 W 14 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 82 82 W 14 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 14 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 13 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 SW 13 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 73 SW 12 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 SW 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 S 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 SW 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 SW 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 78 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 82 W 8 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 83 85 W 8 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 84 86 W 7 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 85 87 W 8 10007 6656 456 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 86 88 W 8 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 88 90 W 8 15548 9780 3580 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 87 88 W 9 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 5926 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 74 W 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 76 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 80 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 82 NW 7 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 82 84 NW 8 6689 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 82 84 NW 8 6689 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 83 85 NW 8 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 85 86 NW 8 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 84 85 NW 7 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 84 84 W 7 6689 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 7 5926 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 SW 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 SW 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 76 W 7 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 82 W 7 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 82 85 W 8 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 83 86 NW 8 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 84 87 NW 9 10007 6656 456 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 85 88 NW 9 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 86 88 NW 10 11448 7566 1366 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 85 86 NW 10 8503 6200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 85 85 NW 12 7631 6200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 12 6689 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 12 5112 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 9 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 W 8 4987 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com