Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 78 78 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 77 77 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 80 81 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 86 89 S 6 2921 2708 608 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 92 97 SE 6 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 98 105 NE 7 8902 6280 4180 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 101 109 N 7 15439 10055 7955 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 106 114 N 8 18040 16215 14115 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 106 113 N 8 16901 15769 13669 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 107 112 N 9 16552 14900 12800 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 107 110 NW 10 15979 11312 9212 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 108 109 NW 10 15439 10055 7955 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 106 106 NW 10 10406 7037 4937 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 104 104 NW 10 8025 5562 3462 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 101 101 N 9 5647 3926 1826 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 97 97 N 9 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 95 95 N 8 3343 3129 1029 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 92 92 N 7 3132 2919 819 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 90 90 N 6 2991 2778 678 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 88 88 NE 6 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 84 84 E 6 2570 2470 370 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 83 83 SE 6 2478 2470 370 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 82 82 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 80 80 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 79 79 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 81 82 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 87 90 SE 7 2991 2778 678 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 93 98 S 6 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 99 105 SW 6 8902 6280 4180 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 103 109 SW 5 15439 10055 7955 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 107 114 W 6 18040 16215 14115 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 108 114 W 7 18040 16215 14115 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 108 113 NW 9 16901 15769 13669 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 108 111 NW 10 16357 13690 11590 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 109 110 NW 10 15979 11312 9212 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 107 107 NW 10 12425 7872 5772 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 105 105 W 9 8902 6280 4180 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 102 102 W 8 6377 4234 2134 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 97 97 W 8 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 95 95 W 8 3343 3129 1029 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 92 92 SW 8 3132 2919 819 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 89 89 S 9 2921 2708 608 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 87 87 S 9 2780 2568 468 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 83 83 S 9 2478 2470 370 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 82 82 S 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 81 81 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 80 80 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 78 78 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 77 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 80 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 85 88 S 7 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 90 94 SW 6 3273 3059 959 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 95 101 SW 6 5647 3926 1826 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 98 105 SW 5 8902 6280 4180 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 102 109 SW 6 15439 10055 7955 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 103 109 SW 7 15439 10055 7955 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 103 107 SW 8 12425 7872 5772 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 104 106 SW 9 10406 7037 4937 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 104 105 SW 10 8902 6280 4180 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 103 103 SW 12 7179 4564 2464 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 100 100 SW 12 4722 3616 1516 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 98 98 SW 12 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 94 94 S 12 3273 3059 959 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 92 92 S 10 3132 2919 819 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 89 89 S 10 2921 2708 608 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 S 10 2780 2568 468 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 85 85 S 9 2640 2470 370 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 82 82 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 81 81 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 80 80 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 77 77 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 82 83 SW 6 2478 2470 370 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 90 SW 6 2991 2778 678 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 91 95 SW 5 3343 3129 1029 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 94 98 W 5 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 97 101 W 5 5647 3926 1826 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 97 101 W 6 5647 3926 1826 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 98 101 W 6 5647 3926 1826 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 98 99 W 7 4256 3411 1311 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 98 98 W 7 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 97 97 W 8 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 95 95 W 8 3343 3129 1029 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 93 93 W 9 3202 2989 889 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 89 89 SW 10 2921 2708 608 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 88 88 S 10 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 85 85 S 12 2640 2470 370 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 83 83 S 12 2478 2470 370 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 82 82 S 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 79 79 S 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 78 78 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 77 77 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 76 76 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 80 81 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 85 87 W 6 2780 2568 468 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 88 91 W 6 3062 2849 749 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 91 95 W 6 3343 3129 1029 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 94 98 W 6 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 95 98 W 6 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 95 98 W 7 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 95 97 W 7 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 96 97 W 7 3633 3270 1170 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 94 94 W 7 3273 3059 959 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 93 93 W 7 3202 2989 889 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 91 91 SW 7 3062 2849 749 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 88 88 SW 7 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 86 86 SW 7 2710 2476 376 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 84 84 S 7 2570 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 81 81 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 78 78 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 W 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 81 W 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 85 88 W 7 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 89 93 W 7 3202 2989 889 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 92 96 W 7 3414 3200 1100 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 95 99 W 8 4256 3411 1311 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 96 100 W 8 4722 3616 1516 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 96 99 W 8 4256 3411 1311 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 96 98 W 8 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 97 98 W 9 3945 3340 1240 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 96 96 W 9 3414 3200 1100 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 94 94 W 9 3273 3059 959 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 92 92 W 9 3132 2919 819 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 88 88 W 9 2851 2638 538 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 87 87 SW 8 2780 2568 468 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 84 84 SW 8 2570 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 SW 8 2478 2470 370 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 81 81 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 77 77 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com