Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 76 76 N 6 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 N 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 80 NE 3 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 85 NE 3 4253 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 89 E 3 7359 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 86 93 S 3 13641 8142 2462 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 88 96 SW 6 16308 13406 7726 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 91 99 SW 7 17912 16130 10450 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 91 98 SW 9 16836 15661 9981 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 92 98 SW 10 16836 15661 9981 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 93 97 SW 10 16503 14493 8813 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 93 95 W 10 15838 10686 5006 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 10 10963 7279 1599 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 90 90 W 9 8239 5687 7 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 87 87 W 8 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 84 84 W 8 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 83 83 W 7 3606 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 82 82 NW 6 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 NW 6 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 81 81 NW 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 N 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 N 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 N 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 79 79 NE 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 78 78 NE 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 NE 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 81 NE 5 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 83 86 NE 5 4786 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 85 90 E 5 8239 5687 7 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 87 94 SE 6 14976 9199 3519 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 90 98 S 10 16836 15661 9981 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 92 100 S 12 18296 16426 10746 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 93 100 S 13 18296 16426 10746 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 94 100 SW 14 18296 16426 10746 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 94 98 SW 14 16836 15661 9981 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 94 96 W 15 16308 13406 7726 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 93 93 W 15 13641 8142 2462 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 91 91 W 15 9457 6436 756 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 88 88 W 15 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 86 86 W 14 4786 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 84 84 SW 14 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 83 83 SW 13 3606 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 SW 13 3606 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 82 82 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 81 81 S 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 80 80 S 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 79 79 S 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 78 78 SE 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 77 SE 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 77 SE 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 SE 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 81 S 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 79 84 S 15 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 88 S 15 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 83 91 S 16 9457 6436 756 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 85 93 S 16 13641 8142 2462 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 87 94 S 17 14976 9199 3519 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 88 94 S 17 14976 9199 3519 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 89 93 S 17 13641 8142 2462 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 89 91 S 18 9457 6436 756 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 88 88 S 18 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 87 87 S 18 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 85 85 S 18 4253 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 S 20 3606 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 82 82 S 20 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 81 81 S 18 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 S 18 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 79 79 S 17 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 78 78 S 16 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 77 77 S 15 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 76 76 SE 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 SE 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 SE 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 SE 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 78 SE 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 SE 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 SE 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 85 SE 14 4253 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 87 SE 14 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 82 89 S 14 7359 5680 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 83 89 S 14 7359 5680 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 85 90 S 14 8239 5687 7 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 86 89 S 14 7359 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 86 87 S 14 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 85 85 SW 14 4253 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 84 84 SW 14 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 81 81 SW 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 79 79 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 79 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 78 78 SW 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 S 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 S 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 S 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 SE 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 SE 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 SE 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 76 SE 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 S 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 80 S 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 82 S 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 78 84 S 9 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 80 86 S 9 4786 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 82 88 SW 10 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 84 88 SW 12 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 85 88 SW 12 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 85 86 SW 13 4786 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 13 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 13 3606 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 81 81 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 80 80 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 79 79 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 78 78 SW 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 SW 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 78 78 SW 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 77 77 SW 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 77 77 W 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 W 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 77 SW 8 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 SW 8 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 SW 8 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 78 84 SW 8 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 80 87 SW 9 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 81 88 SW 9 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 83 89 SW 10 7359 5680 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 84 88 SW 10 6481 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 85 87 W 12 5718 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 85 86 W 13 4786 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 13 4253 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 13 3931 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 14 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 80 80 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 80 80 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 13 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 W 12 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 77 77 W 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 77 77 W 10 3442 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 W 9 3442 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com