Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 NE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 73 NE 8 9216 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 76 NE 8 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 74 80 NE 9 17242 15848 8248 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 77 83 NE 9 18503 16884 9284 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 79 85 NE 9 18811 18332 10732 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 79 84 NE 9 18604 18122 10522 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 80 84 NE 8 18604 18122 10522 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 80 82 NE 8 18392 16522 8922 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 80 81 NE 7 18221 16319 8719 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 78 78 NE 7 16377 13584 5984 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 78 78 NE 6 16377 13584 5984 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 77 77 NE 6 15981 10773 3173 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 74 74 E 5 10920 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 74 74 E 5 10920 7600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 73 73 E 6 9216 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 E 7 8050 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 E 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 SE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 SE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 SE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 SE 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 S 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 S 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 73 S 7 9216 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 75 S 7 13744 8040 440 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 74 78 S 7 16377 13584 5984 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 76 80 S 7 17242 15848 8248 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 77 81 S 8 18221 16319 8719 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 78 81 SW 9 18221 16319 8719 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 78 80 W 10 17242 15848 8248 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 78 79 W 10 16617 14945 7345 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 16377 13584 5984 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 75 75 SW 10 13744 8040 440 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 8050 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 7082 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 SW 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 NW 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 NW 7 7082 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 73 NW 7 9216 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 76 N 8 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 73 76 NW 8 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 73 76 NW 9 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 74 76 NW 12 15297 9127 1527 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 74 75 NW 13 13744 8040 440 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 14 10920 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 8050 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 8050 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 14 7082 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 13 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 66 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 68 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 69 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 69 70 NW 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 69 70 NW 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 70 NW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 70 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 13 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 63 NW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 65 NW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 66 NW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 68 N 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 69 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 68 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 68 NW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 SW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 SW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 68 SW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 70 SW 6 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 70 SW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 70 SW 7 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 70 W 8 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 70 W 9 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 69 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 12 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 10 6726 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com