Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 WSW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 11 17 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SW 8 11 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 8 11 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 SW 6 10 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 54 57 SW 5 8 11155 10410 1260 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 55 60 SW 5 8 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 58 64 SW 6 10 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 59 65 SW 8 11 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 60 65 WSW 9 13 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 60 63 WSW 10 14 13191 11856 2706 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 10 14 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 60 61 WSW 10 14 12119 11378 2228 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 10 14 11639 10896 1746 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 14 11397 10653 1503 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 9 13 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 9 13 10422 9234 84 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 10 14 10422 9234 84 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 10 14 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 11 17 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 WSW 9 13 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 8 11 9239 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 6 10 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 SW 8 11 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 SSW 6 10 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 8 11 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 S 8 11 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 S 9 13 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 55 S 9 13 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 55 59 SSW 10 14 11639 10896 1746 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 57 63 SSW 11 17 13191 11856 2706 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 58 65 SSW 12 18 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 59 67 SSW 16 23 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 60 67 SW 17 25 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 60 66 SW 17 25 14192 12982 3832 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 60 64 SW 19 28 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 60 62 WSW 19 28 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 59 60 WSW 19 28 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 19 28 11155 10410 1260 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 17 25 10422 9234 84 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 14 21 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 14 21 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 SW 14 21 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 SW 13 19 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 SW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SW 6 10 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 8 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 5 8 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 4 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 4 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 S 4 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 52 SSW 5 8 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 52 56 SW 6 10 10912 10059 909 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 54 60 WSW 8 11 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 55 62 W 9 13 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 56 64 W 10 14 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 57 65 W 11 17 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 57 63 W 12 18 13191 11856 2706 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 58 63 W 13 19 13191 11856 2706 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 57 59 W 13 19 11639 10896 1746 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 56 57 WNW 14 21 11155 10410 1260 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 14 21 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 14 21 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 13 19 9239 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 12 18 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 12 18 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 11 17 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 WSW 10 14 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 SW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 9 13 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 53 SW 9 13 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 55 58 SW 8 11 11397 10653 1503 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 57 62 SSW 8 11 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 59 65 SSW 8 11 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 60 67 SW 9 13 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 61 67 SW 9 13 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 61 66 WSW 10 14 14192 12982 3832 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 61 64 WSW 10 14 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 61 63 W 10 14 13191 11856 2706 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 11 17 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 11 17 11639 10896 1746 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 11 17 11155 10410 1260 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 14 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 10 14 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 52 52 SW 10 14 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 50 50 SSW 9 13 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SSW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SSW 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 S 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 S 9 13 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 S 9 13 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SSW 9 13 9239 9150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 53 55 SSW 9 13 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 56 60 SSW 10 14 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 58 64 SSW 10 14 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 59 66 SSW 10 14 14192 12982 3832 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 61 69 SSW 11 17 17284 14143 4993 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 61 69 SW 12 18 17284 14143 4993 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 62 69 SW 13 19 17284 14143 4993 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 62 67 SW 14 21 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 62 65 WSW 16 23 13905 12316 3166 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 61 62 WSW 17 25 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 17 25 11879 11137 1987 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 17 25 11397 10653 1503 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 17 25 10667 9557 407 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 16 23 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 51 51 SSW 14 21 9239 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 50 50 SSW 14 21 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SSW 13 19 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 S 13 19 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 S 12 18 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 S 12 18 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 12 18 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 12 18 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 19 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 13 19 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 53 SSW 14 21 10078 9150 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 53 57 SSW 16 23 11155 10410 1260 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 55 61 SSW 18 26 12119 11378 2228 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 57 64 SSW 19 28 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 58 66 SSW 20 28 14192 12982 3832 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 59 67 SSW 21 31 15235 13571 4421 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 59 66 SSW 23 32 14192 12982 3832 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 59 64 SW 24 34 13615 12094 2944 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 59 62 SW 25 35 12337 11617 2467 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 58 59 SW 25 35 11639 10896 1746 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 56 56 SW 25 34 10912 10059 909 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 24 33 10422 9234 84 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 21 29 9565 9150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 50 50 SSW 20 27 8926 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 SSW 18 26 8724 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]