Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 61 61 NW 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 N 6 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 72 N 7 16109 13567 4417 White 4
10 AM Tue 71 76 N 7 16967 16535 7385 White 8
11 AM Tue 71 77 N 7 17178 16916 7766 White 9
12 Noon Tue 71 78 N 8 17391 17391 8241 White 10
1 PM Tue 73 80 N 8 17812 17812 8662 White 12
2 PM Tue 74 80 N 8 17812 17812 8662 White 12
3 PM Tue 76 81 N 8 18022 18022 8872 White 13
4 PM Tue 76 79 N 9 17601 17601 8451 White 11
5 PM Tue 76 77 NW 10 17178 16916 7766 White 9
6 PM Tue 76 76 NW 12 16967 16535 7385 White 8
7 PM Tue 74 74 NW 12 16539 15866 6716 White 6
8 PM Tue 72 72 N 12 16109 13567 4417 White 4
9 PM Tue 70 70 N 10 15269 9150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 69 69 N 9 13700 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 68 68 NE 8 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NE 7 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 NE 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 E 7 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 E 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 E 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 E 7 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 E 6 16109 13567 4417 White 4
10 AM Wed 71 75 SE 6 16753 16330 7180 White 7
11 AM Wed 72 77 SE 6 17178 16916 7766 White 9
12 Noon Wed 72 78 S 6 17391 17391 8241 White 10
1 PM Wed 73 79 S 7 17601 17601 8451 White 11
2 PM Wed 74 79 W 9 17601 17601 8451 White 11
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 10 17812 17812 8662 White 12
4 PM Wed 76 78 W 12 17391 17391 8241 White 10
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 13 17178 16916 7766 White 9
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 16967 16535 7385 White 8
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 16324 14961 5811 White 5
8 PM Wed 71 71 W 7 15893 10665 1515 White 3
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 5 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 NW 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 NW 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 69 W 7 13700 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 67 71 W 7 15893 10665 1515 White 3
11 AM Thu 67 73 SW 7 16324 14961 5811 White 5
12 Noon Thu 68 74 SW 8 16539 15866 6716 White 6
1 PM Thu 69 75 SW 9 16753 16330 7180 White 7
2 PM Thu 69 74 SW 10 16539 15866 6716 White 6
3 PM Thu 71 75 W 12 16753 16330 7180 White 7
4 PM Thu 71 73 W 13 16324 14961 5811 White 5
5 PM Thu 71 72 W 14 16109 13567 4417 White 4
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 15 15893 10665 1515 White 3
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 14 13700 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 12 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 10 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 SW 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SW 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 67 W 8 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 68 W 8 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 69 W 9 13700 9150 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 65 68 W 10 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 69 W 10 13700 9150 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 66 67 NW 12 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 13 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 12 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 S 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 S 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SE 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 65 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 66 W 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 66 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 66 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 65 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 64 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 S 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 65 W 10 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 66 W 10 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 67 W 10 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 67 W 12 8929 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 68 W 12 10759 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 66 W 13 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 65 NW 13 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 12 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 10 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 5 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 5 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 5 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 7 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 8 8740 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NW 9 8740 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com