Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 NE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 82 NE 7 5006 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 88 NE 7 11278 7452 1552 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 89 95 NE 8 18192 16288 10388 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 92 98 NE 9 18578 17838 11938 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 94 100 NE 8 18987 18436 12536 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 95 101 NE 8 19381 18534 12634 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 95 99 NE 7 18747 18285 12385 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 96 98 N 8 18578 17838 11938 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 96 97 N 8 18479 16820 10920 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 93 93 N 8 16593 14935 9035 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 91 91 NW 8 15985 11029 5129 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 86 86 NW 9 8396 5900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 81 81 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 77 77 N 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 N 5 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 NE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 E 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 S 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 S 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 84 88 SE 6 11278 7452 1552 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 88 92 SE 6 16370 13637 7737 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 91 95 SE 7 18192 16288 10388 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 92 97 S 8 18479 16820 10920 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 93 97 W 9 18479 16820 10920 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 93 96 W 10 18357 16494 10594 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 94 96 W 10 18357 16494 10594 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 94 94 W 10 17086 15818 9918 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 91 91 W 9 15985 11029 5129 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 9 13855 8315 2415 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 84 84 SW 9 6595 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 79 79 S 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 76 S 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 S 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 83 W 8 5827 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 84 88 NW 7 11278 7452 1552 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 87 91 NW 7 15985 11029 5129 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 88 92 NW 8 16370 13637 7737 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 89 92 NW 9 16370 13637 7737 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 89 91 NW 10 15985 11029 5129 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 90 91 W 10 15985 11029 5129 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 90 90 W 12 15376 9578 3678 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 13 9804 6564 664 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 13 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 13 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 78 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 81 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 83 85 NW 7 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 84 86 NW 7 8396 5900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 85 87 NW 8 9804 6564 664 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 84 85 W 9 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 85 86 W 10 8396 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 85 85 W 10 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 83 83 W 12 5827 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 71 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 76 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 80 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 80 82 NW 7 5006 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 81 83 NW 7 5827 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 82 84 NW 7 6595 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 82 83 NW 7 5827 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 83 84 W 7 6595 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 83 83 W 7 5827 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 78 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 81 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 82 85 NW 7 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 83 86 NW 8 8396 5900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 83 85 NW 9 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 83 85 NW 9 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 84 85 NW 10 7516 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 84 84 NW 12 6595 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 82 82 NW 12 5006 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com