Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 83 83 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 83 83 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 86 87 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 90 93 NE 3 2818 2606 1190 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 95 100 NE 2 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 98 105 N 2 4377 3439 2023 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 102 110 N 1 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 106 114 N 2 14302 8920 7504 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 107 114 W 5 14302 8920 7504 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 109 115 W 7 15572 10316 8900 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 110 114 W 8 14302 8920 7504 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 110 112 W 9 10706 7275 5859 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 110 110 W 9 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 109 109 W 9 7444 5065 3649 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 105 105 W 9 4377 3439 2023 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 102 102 W 8 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 100 100 W 8 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 98 98 W 8 3166 2952 1536 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 96 96 W 8 3026 2814 1398 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 94 94 W 7 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 92 92 NW 6 2748 2536 1120 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 89 89 NW 5 2540 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 87 87 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 86 86 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 84 84 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 84 84 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 86 87 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 90 93 NE 6 2818 2606 1190 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 95 100 NE 5 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 99 106 NE 3 5164 3737 2321 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 102 110 NE 6 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 106 114 NE 7 14302 8920 7504 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 108 115 N 9 15572 10316 8900 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 109 115 N 12 15572 10316 8900 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 110 114 NW 13 14302 8920 7504 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 111 113 W 14 13263 8075 6659 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 110 110 W 15 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 108 108 W 15 6607 4344 2928 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 105 105 W 15 4377 3439 2023 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 102 102 W 15 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 99 99 SW 14 3235 3022 1606 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 97 97 SW 14 3096 2883 1467 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 95 95 SW 13 2957 2744 1328 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 93 93 SW 13 2818 2606 1190 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 91 91 SW 12 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 89 89 SW 12 2540 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 87 87 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 85 85 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 84 84 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 84 84 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 85 86 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 88 91 S 9 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 91 96 S 9 3026 2814 1398 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 95 102 S 9 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 98 106 S 9 5164 3737 2321 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 101 109 S 10 7444 5065 3649 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 103 110 S 12 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 105 111 S 14 9328 6488 5072 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 106 110 SW 15 8252 5796 4380 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 107 109 SW 16 7444 5065 3649 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 106 106 SW 17 5164 3737 2321 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 104 104 SW 18 4071 3369 1953 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 101 101 SW 18 3375 3161 1745 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 98 98 SW 17 3166 2952 1536 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 95 95 S 17 2957 2744 1328 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 93 93 S 16 2818 2606 1190 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 91 91 S 16 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 89 89 S 15 2540 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 88 88 S 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 87 87 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 86 86 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 85 85 SE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 84 84 SE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 84 84 SE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 85 86 SE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 87 90 S 9 2609 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 89 94 S 9 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 92 99 S 9 3235 3022 1606 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 95 103 S 10 3764 3300 1884 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 98 106 S 10 5164 3737 2321 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 100 107 S 12 5906 4042 2626 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 102 107 S 12 5906 4042 2626 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 103 106 SW 13 5164 3737 2321 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 103 104 SW 13 4071 3369 1953 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 102 102 SW 13 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 101 101 SW 13 3375 3161 1745 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 99 99 SW 13 3235 3022 1606 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 97 97 SW 13 3096 2883 1467 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 95 95 SW 13 2957 2744 1328 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 93 93 SW 13 2818 2606 1190 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 91 91 SW 12 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 90 90 SW 12 2609 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 88 88 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 87 87 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 85 85 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 84 84 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 83 83 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 83 83 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 84 85 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 87 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 90 S 7 2609 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 90 94 S 7 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 92 97 S 7 3096 2883 1467 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 94 99 S 8 3235 3022 1606 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 96 101 S 8 3375 3161 1745 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 97 101 SW 9 3375 3161 1745 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 98 100 SW 9 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 99 100 SW 10 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 99 99 SW 10 3235 3022 1606 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 98 98 SW 10 3166 2952 1536 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 97 97 SW 10 3096 2883 1467 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 95 95 SW 10 2957 2744 1328 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 94 94 SW 10 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 92 92 SW 10 2748 2536 1120 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 91 91 SW 10 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 89 89 SW 10 2540 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 88 88 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 87 87 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 86 86 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 85 85 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 84 84 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 84 84 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 85 85 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 86 88 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 88 91 SW 8 2679 2470 1054 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 90 94 SW 8 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 93 98 SW 8 3166 2952 1536 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 96 101 SW 8 3375 3161 1745 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 98 102 SW 8 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 100 103 SW 9 3764 3300 1884 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 102 104 SW 9 4071 3369 1953 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 102 102 W 10 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 102 102 W 12 3455 3230 1814 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 100 100 W 13 3305 3091 1675 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 98 98 W 13 3166 2952 1536 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 96 96 W 14 3026 2814 1398 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 94 94 SW 15 2887 2675 1259 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 92 92 SW 16 2748 2536 1120 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 90 90 SW 16 2609 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 89 89 SW 15 2540 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 88 88 SW 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 86 86 SW 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 85 85 SW 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 84 84 SW 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com