NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SW 15 10230 S 17 6267 SW 15 1645 W 8 8784 W 5 10808 W 7 11590
Oatman Mt S 18 12344 SW 18 8491 SW 13 4688 W 7 10744 SW 7 13391 SW 10 14015
Shaw Butte SW 9 12040 S 14 9417 SW 12 3954 W 6 10010 S 5 12657 SW 6 13281
The Y S 17 8842 S 21 3535 W 16 0 W 13 6813 SW 12 8462 S 14 9912
Phoenix Regional SW 14 13507 S 18 10631 W 12 6350 NW 6 10860 S 3 13670 SW 6 15918
Humbolt S 15 6935 S 23 1303 SW 20 0 W 10 5489 SW 8 8119 S 10 8981
Miller Canyon SW 23 10998 S 31 9867 SW 23 7237 W 13 7412 S 10 10998 SW 14 12232
Box Canyon SW 18 12216 S 26 8785 SW 20 7135 W 10 7975 W 9 11654 SW 13 12928
Mustang Mountain SW 20 11369 SW 29 8667 SW 23 7357 W 13 8216 W 9 9541 SW 15 12626
Whetstone Mountain SW 21 12471 S 29 9011 W 24 7650 W 14 8517 W 10 12471 SW 15 13086
Mt Lemmon SW 18 9142 S 25 5523 W 18 2690 W 12 4595 S 12 8387 SW 13 9836
A Mountain SW 13 11420 SW 20 9161 W 13 6097 NW 7 8979 SE 5 11420 SW 8 12661
Rainbow Valley SW 14 13845 SW 17 10259 SW 14 7742 W 7 12283 W 6 14306 W 8 17245
Pinal Peak SW 17 7042 SW 25 4693 W 20 0 W 13 4092 SW 9 7042 SW 14 7409
Harquahala S 21 5926 S 24 0 W 17 0 SW 9 5550 SW 10 6693 S 13 7864
El Tiro Gliderport SW 14 12090 SW 18 9831 W 14 5550 NW 7 9649 W 5 12090 W 9 13331

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com