NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 12 6880 W 14 7202 W 10 9178 W 14 8707 W 12 7130 W 13 8707
Oatman Mt W 9 7464 W 12 8157 SW 10 8501 SW 15 8501 W 10 8219 W 13 8343
Shaw Butte W 10 7313 W 10 7561 SW 8 8987 W 12 8987 W 9 7499 W 10 7623
The Y W 13 6449 W 10 7084 SW 12 7712 SW 15 7084 W 15 6873 W 14 7084
Phoenix Regional W 9 7923 W 9 8346 W 7 9810 W 12 8662 W 9 8346 W 12 8662
Humbolt W 16 4597 W 15 6295 SW 13 6935 W 16 6722 W 15 6509 W 14 6509
Miller Canyon NW 12 2365 NW 10 5714 N 8 6362 W 12 4121 N 10 2098 N 12 2098
Box Canyon NW 13 5358 NW 13 6424 NW 7 7054 NW 14 6636 N 12 5358 NW 14 5572
Mustang Mountain NW 13 5408 NW 12 6477 W 9 7110 NW 12 6265 NW 12 5408 NW 13 5408
Whetstone Mountain NW 14 3937 NW 13 6475 W 10 7117 NW 14 6259 NW 13 3937 NW 14 3937
Mt Lemmon NW 13 824 NW 12 4750 W 10 5406 NW 15 4969 NW 13 824 NW 14 2083
A Mountain NW 10 6881 NW 9 8958 W 6 9575 NW 10 9165 NW 9 6881 NW 10 7007
Rainbow Valley W 10 8172 W 10 8598 W 9 10098 W 13 10563 W 9 8660 W 12 9058
Pinal Peak W 16 2162 W 16 4490 W 14 4917 W 16 4917 W 17 3845 W 15 4490
Harquahala W 12 3873 W 10 4192 SW 10 5756 SW 15 5756 W 13 5205 W 13 5756
El Tiro Gliderport NW 10 7422 NW 9 7875 S 6 10637 W 10 7875 NW 9 7360 NW 10 7485

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com