NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 14 9995 W 17 10599 SW 16 8253 W 12 5278 W 12 4950 W 14 5278
Oatman Mt W 10 9773 SW 16 12010 SW 17 6444 SW 12 4819 SW 12 5797 SW 14 3586
Shaw Butte W 7 11084 W 9 11481 SW 8 5805 W 6 4410 W 6 3227 W 7 5158
The Y W 13 10128 SW 18 10538 S 18 9305 SW 13 5620 SW 13 8891 S 13 8891
Phoenix Regional W 9 9579 W 12 12131 SW 10 6632 W 7 5184 W 8 5184 W 8 5184
Humbolt SW 16 10069 SW 18 10484 SW 17 5740 SW 14 2694 SW 13 3033 SW 15 4141
Miller Canyon NW 13 8296 N 13 8082 SW 14 1215 SW 12 29 W 12 2358 SW 13 383
Box Canyon NW 8 9798 W 9 9798 W 9 8339 NW 9 4659 NW 9 8548 NW 9 8339
Mustang Mountain W 9 9648 W 10 9648 W 9 4273 NW 10 2196 NW 10 8186 NW 10 4903
Whetstone Mountain W 10 9642 W 12 9642 W 13 3761 NW 12 1661 NW 13 5133 NW 13 4692
Mt Lemmon W 10 7996 NW 10 8206 S 12 6688 SW 10 1546 SW 10 6469 S 12 6688
A Mountain NW 6 9648 W 5 9850 W 5 6563 NW 5 4758 NW 6 6563 W 6 5484
Rainbow Valley W 9 12286 W 13 12880 SW 12 8405 W 7 5410 W 9 6175 W 9 5410
Pinal Peak W 20 7873 W 21 8290 W 22 6614 W 20 1039 W 22 2959 W 21 2959
Harquahala W 16 9220 SW 24 9220 S 24 5028 S 16 2021 SW 16 4289 S 17 2358
El Tiro Gliderport NW 7 8868 W 10 10453 SW 9 5552 W 7 4489 NW 8 5223 W 8 5223

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com