Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 81 81 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 81 81 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 82 83 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 88 91 SE 2 2695 2470 1170 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 94 99 SE 2 3252 3038 1738 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 99 106 E 2 5343 3809 2509 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 103 111 NE 2 9688 6648 5348 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 106 114 N 3 14644 9291 7991 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 108 115 NW 5 15684 10619 9319 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 110 116 NW 6 16132 12694 11394 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 111 114 NW 7 14644 9291 7991 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 110 111 NW 8 9688 6648 5348 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 109 109 NW 8 7642 5242 3942 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 108 108 NW 8 6782 4415 3115 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 104 104 NW 7 4143 3386 2086 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 100 100 NW 6 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 97 97 NW 5 3112 2899 1599 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 95 95 W 5 2973 2760 1460 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 92 92 W 5 2764 2552 1252 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 90 90 W 5 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 89 89 W 3 2556 2470 1170 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 87 87 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 86 86 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 84 84 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 83 83 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 82 82 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 85 86 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 91 94 SE 6 2903 2691 1391 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 97 102 SE 5 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 101 107 S 3 6075 4113 2813 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 105 111 S 2 9688 6648 5348 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 108 115 S 3 15684 10619 9319 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 111 117 SW 6 16419 14028 12728 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 112 117 SW 7 16419 14028 12728 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 112 115 W 8 15684 10619 9319 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 112 113 W 9 13533 8259 6959 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 110 110 W 10 8437 5964 4664 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 107 107 W 10 6075 4113 2813 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 104 104 W 10 4143 3386 2086 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 100 100 W 9 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 96 96 W 9 3042 2830 1530 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 93 93 W 8 2834 2622 1322 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 90 90 SW 8 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 88 88 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 87 87 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 85 85 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 83 83 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 82 82 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 81 81 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 82 82 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 84 85 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 87 90 S 5 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 91 96 S 5 3042 2830 1530 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 95 102 SW 5 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 99 107 SW 6 6075 4113 2813 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 102 110 SW 6 8437 5964 4664 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 105 112 SW 6 11013 7472 6172 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 106 111 W 6 9688 6648 5348 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 107 110 W 6 8437 5964 4664 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 106 107 W 6 6075 4113 2813 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 105 105 W 7 4448 3503 2203 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 103 103 W 7 3836 3316 2016 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 100 100 W 8 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 97 97 W 9 3112 2899 1599 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 94 94 SW 10 2903 2691 1391 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 92 92 SW 10 2764 2552 1252 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 90 90 SW 10 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 88 88 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 87 87 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 86 86 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 85 85 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 83 83 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 83 83 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 83 83 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 85 86 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 87 89 S 3 2556 2470 1170 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 90 94 S 3 2903 2691 1391 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 93 99 S 5 3252 3038 1738 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 96 102 S 6 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 99 105 S 6 4448 3503 2203 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 101 106 SW 7 5343 3809 2509 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 102 106 SW 7 5343 3809 2509 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 102 104 SW 8 4143 3386 2086 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 102 103 W 8 3836 3316 2016 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 101 101 W 8 3391 3177 1877 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 100 100 W 8 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 98 98 W 8 3182 2969 1669 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 95 95 W 8 2973 2760 1460 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 93 93 SW 8 2834 2622 1322 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 91 91 SW 8 2695 2470 1170 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 89 89 SW 8 2556 2470 1170 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 87 87 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 85 85 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 84 84 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 83 83 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 82 82 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 82 82 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 82 82 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 83 83 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 86 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 89 W 3 2556 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 90 93 W 3 2834 2622 1322 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 93 97 W 5 3112 2899 1599 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 96 100 W 5 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 98 102 W 6 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 99 102 W 6 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 100 102 W 7 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 100 101 W 7 3391 3177 1877 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 99 99 W 8 3252 3038 1738 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 97 97 W 8 3112 2899 1599 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 95 95 W 8 2973 2760 1460 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 93 93 W 8 2834 2622 1322 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 90 90 W 7 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 88 88 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 85 85 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 83 83 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 82 82 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 81 81 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 80 80 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 80 80 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 81 81 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 82 82 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 85 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 87 89 W 6 2556 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 90 94 W 6 2903 2691 1391 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 94 98 W 6 3182 2969 1669 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 96 100 W 6 3321 3107 1807 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 98 102 W 7 3527 3247 1947 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 100 103 W 7 3836 3316 2016 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 101 103 W 8 3836 3316 2016 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 102 103 W 8 3836 3316 2016 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 101 101 W 9 3391 3177 1877 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 99 99 W 9 3252 3038 1738 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 96 96 W 9 3042 2830 1530 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 94 94 W 10 2903 2691 1391 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 92 92 W 10 2764 2552 1252 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 90 90 W 10 2625 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 87 87 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 85 85 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 83 83 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 82 82 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 80 80 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com