Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 73 73 N 6 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 N 5 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 NE 3 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 85 NE 3 9186 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 84 89 N 3 15832 10556 2856 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 87 94 NW 3 18309 16436 8736 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 89 97 W 5 18687 18239 10539 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 90 98 W 6 18901 18404 10704 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 91 98 W 8 18901 18404 10704 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 92 97 W 9 18687 18239 10539 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 92 95 W 9 18451 16713 9013 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 92 93 W 10 17989 16147 8447 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 90 90 W 10 16309 13375 5675 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 10 14924 8981 1281 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 84 84 NW 10 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 81 81 NW 10 5519 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 80 80 NW 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 79 79 NW 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 NW 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 79 79 N 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 78 78 NE 8 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 NE 7 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 NE 6 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 E 5 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 E 5 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 83 E 5 7169 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 88 E 5 14924 8981 1281 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 86 92 SE 6 16849 15670 7970 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 88 96 SE 7 18550 17493 9793 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 89 97 SE 9 18687 18239 10539 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 90 97 S 10 18687 18239 10539 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 91 96 S 12 18550 17493 9793 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 91 94 SW 14 18309 16436 8736 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 91 92 W 14 16849 15670 7970 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 89 89 W 15 15832 10556 2856 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 15 10793 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 14 7169 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 79 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 79 84 W 9 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 82 89 SW 9 15832 10556 2856 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 84 92 SW 9 16849 15670 7970 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 86 94 SW 9 18309 16436 8736 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 87 94 SW 10 18309 16436 8736 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 87 92 W 12 16849 15670 7970 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 87 90 W 13 16309 13375 5675 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 87 88 W 14 14924 8981 1281 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 85 85 W 15 9186 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 14 6311 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 14 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 14 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 SW 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 SW 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 SW 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 80 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 84 W 9 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 81 86 W 9 10793 7700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 82 87 W 10 13586 8016 316 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 83 88 W 10 14924 8981 1281 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 83 87 W 12 13586 8016 316 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 83 85 W 13 9186 7700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 83 84 W 13 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 14 6311 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 74 74 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 79 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 81 W 9 5519 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 79 84 W 10 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 80 85 W 10 9186 7700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 81 86 W 10 10793 7700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 82 86 W 12 10793 7700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 82 84 W 12 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 82 83 W 12 7169 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 12 5519 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 W 8 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 W 8 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 W 8 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 8 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 77 W 9 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 80 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 78 82 W 10 6311 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 80 84 W 12 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 81 84 W 13 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 82 84 W 14 8084 7700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 82 83 W 15 7169 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 82 82 W 15 6311 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 81 81 W 16 5519 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 16 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 15 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 15 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 14 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 14 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 13 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 10 4987 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com