Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 83 83 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 86 86 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 85 86 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 91 94 NE 2 2908 2696 546 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 96 101 E 2 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 100 107 SE 2 6128 4136 1986 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 103 111 S 2 9796 6697 4547 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 106 114 S 3 14746 9402 7252 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 108 115 SW 5 15719 10714 8564 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 109 114 SW 6 14746 9402 7252 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 110 113 W 7 13591 8316 6166 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 110 111 W 7 9796 6697 4547 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 110 110 W 7 8494 6016 3866 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 108 108 W 7 6848 4438 2288 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 105 105 W 6 4470 3525 1375 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 102 102 W 5 3550 3252 1102 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 100 100 W 5 3326 3113 963 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 97 97 N 5 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 95 95 N 5 2978 2765 615 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 94 94 N 5 2908 2696 546 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 91 91 N 5 2700 2470 320 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 89 89 N 5 2561 2470 320 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 87 87 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 86 86 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 85 85 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 85 85 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 88 89 E 5 2561 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 93 96 E 6 3047 2835 685 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 98 103 E 6 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 100 107 SE 6 6128 4136 1986 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 104 112 S 3 11105 7533 5383 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 106 114 S 5 14746 9402 7252 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 108 115 S 6 15719 10714 8564 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 110 115 SW 7 15719 10714 8564 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 111 114 SW 8 14746 9402 7252 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 111 112 W 9 11105 7533 5383 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 109 109 W 9 7704 5297 3147 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 107 107 W 9 6128 4136 1986 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 104 104 W 9 4166 3391 1241 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 101 101 W 8 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 99 99 SW 8 3257 3043 893 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 97 97 SW 7 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 95 95 SW 7 2978 2765 615 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 92 92 SW 6 2769 2557 407 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 90 90 S 6 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 88 88 SE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 86 86 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 84 84 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 84 84 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 85 85 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 87 88 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 90 93 SE 3 2839 2627 477 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 93 98 SE 3 3187 2974 824 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 96 103 S 3 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 99 107 S 5 6128 4136 1986 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 101 109 S 5 7704 5297 3147 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 103 110 S 5 8494 6016 3866 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 105 110 SW 6 8494 6016 3866 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 106 109 SW 6 7704 5297 3147 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 107 108 SW 7 6848 4438 2288 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 106 106 SW 7 5398 3831 1681 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 105 105 SW 8 4470 3525 1375 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 103 103 SW 8 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 100 100 SW 8 3326 3113 963 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 98 98 SW 9 3187 2974 824 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 96 96 SW 9 3047 2835 685 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 94 94 SW 9 2908 2696 546 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 92 92 SW 8 2769 2557 407 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 90 90 S 7 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 89 89 SE 6 2561 2470 320 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 87 87 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 86 86 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 85 85 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 86 86 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 87 88 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 90 93 SE 3 2839 2627 477 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 92 97 SE 3 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 95 101 S 5 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 97 104 S 5 4166 3391 1241 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 99 106 S 6 5398 3831 1681 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 101 107 S 6 6128 4136 1986 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 102 106 SW 6 5398 3831 1681 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 103 106 SW 7 5398 3831 1681 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 103 104 SW 7 4166 3391 1241 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 102 102 SW 7 3550 3252 1102 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 101 101 SW 7 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 99 99 SW 7 3257 3043 893 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 97 97 W 6 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 95 95 W 6 2978 2765 615 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 93 93 W 6 2839 2627 477 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 92 92 W 6 2769 2557 407 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 90 90 W 5 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 89 89 W 5 2561 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 88 88 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 87 87 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 85 85 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 85 85 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 85 85 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 86 87 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 88 90 W 5 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 90 93 W 5 2839 2627 477 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 93 98 SW 6 3187 2974 824 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 95 101 SW 6 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 97 103 SW 7 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 98 103 W 7 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 100 104 W 8 4166 3391 1241 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 101 103 W 8 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 102 103 W 8 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 102 102 W 9 3550 3252 1102 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 100 100 W 8 3326 3113 963 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 98 98 W 8 3187 2974 824 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 96 96 W 8 3047 2835 685 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 94 94 W 7 2908 2696 546 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 92 92 W 7 2769 2557 407 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 91 91 W 7 2700 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 90 90 W 6 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 88 88 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 87 87 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 86 86 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 84 84 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 84 84 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 84 84 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 86 87 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 88 90 W 5 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 90 94 W 5 2908 2696 546 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 92 97 W 6 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 94 100 W 6 3326 3113 963 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 97 103 W 7 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 98 103 W 7 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 100 103 W 7 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 101 103 W 8 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 102 103 W 8 3859 3321 1171 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 102 102 W 8 3550 3252 1102 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 101 101 W 9 3396 3182 1032 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 99 99 W 9 3257 3043 893 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 97 97 W 9 3117 2904 754 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 95 95 W 9 2978 2765 615 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 93 93 W 9 2839 2627 477 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 92 92 W 9 2769 2557 407 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 90 90 W 9 2630 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 89 89 W 8 2561 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 88 88 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 86 86 W 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 85 85 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com