Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 85 85 NE 3 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 85 85 NE 3 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 86 87 E 3 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 89 92 E 5 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 92 97 E 3 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 96 103 SE 3 8662 6136 3536 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 99 107 SE 3 15259 9817 7217 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 102 110 S 3 16521 14720 12120 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 104 111 SW 5 16858 15709 13109 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 106 111 W 6 16858 15709 13109 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 106 109 W 7 16332 13580 10980 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 106 107 W 8 15259 9817 7217 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 106 106 W 9 13860 8509 5909 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 104 104 W 9 10159 6862 4262 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 100 100 W 8 6224 4165 1565 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 99 99 W 8 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 97 97 W 8 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 95 95 W 8 3556 3253 653 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 94 94 W 8 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 94 94 W 8 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 92 92 W 7 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 91 91 W 6 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 90 90 SW 5 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 87 87 SE 5 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 86 86 E 5 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 86 86 E 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 88 89 E 7 3043 2830 230 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 89 92 E 8 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 93 98 E 8 4494 3543 943 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 97 103 SE 7 8662 6136 3536 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 100 107 SE 3 15259 9817 7217 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 103 110 SE 6 16521 14720 12120 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 105 112 S 7 17913 16159 13559 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 107 112 S 9 17913 16159 13559 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 108 111 SW 10 16858 15709 13109 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 107 108 W 12 15915 11117 8517 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 106 106 W 13 13860 8509 5909 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 104 104 W 13 10159 6862 4262 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 102 102 W 13 7861 5404 2804 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 99 99 W 12 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 97 97 W 12 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 95 95 SW 10 3556 3253 653 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 93 93 SW 10 3326 3112 512 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 91 91 SW 9 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 90 90 S 8 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 88 88 S 7 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 87 87 SE 6 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 86 86 E 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 85 85 E 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 85 85 E 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 86 87 SE 5 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 87 90 SE 5 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 89 94 SE 5 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 92 99 S 6 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 95 103 S 6 8662 6136 3536 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 97 105 S 6 11464 7717 5117 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 99 106 S 7 13860 8509 5909 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 101 106 SW 7 13860 8509 5909 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 102 105 SW 8 11464 7717 5117 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 102 103 W 8 8662 6136 3536 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 101 101 W 9 6993 4472 1872 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 99 99 W 9 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 97 97 W 10 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 95 95 W 12 3556 3253 653 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 94 94 SW 12 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 93 93 SW 12 3326 3112 512 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 92 92 SW 12 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 91 91 SW 10 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 90 90 S 9 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 89 89 S 8 3043 2830 230 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 87 87 SE 7 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 86 86 E 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 85 85 E 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 84 84 E 5 2690 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 84 85 SE 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 85 88 SE 5 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 87 91 S 5 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 89 95 S 6 3556 3253 653 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 92 99 S 7 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 94 101 S 7 6993 4472 1872 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 96 102 SW 8 7861 5404 2804 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 97 101 SW 9 6993 4472 1872 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 98 100 SW 9 6224 4165 1565 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 98 99 W 10 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 97 97 W 10 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 96 96 W 10 3871 3323 723 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 95 95 W 10 3556 3253 653 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 93 93 W 9 3326 3112 512 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 92 92 W 8 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 91 91 W 8 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 91 91 W 7 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 90 90 W 7 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 89 89 W 6 3043 2830 230 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 88 88 W 6 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 87 87 W 6 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 86 86 W 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 85 85 W 6 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 84 84 W 5 2690 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 84 84 W 6 2690 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 85 87 W 6 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 87 90 W 6 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 89 93 SW 6 3326 3112 512 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 91 96 SW 7 3871 3323 723 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 93 98 SW 7 4494 3543 943 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 94 99 W 8 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 95 99 W 8 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 96 98 W 9 4494 3543 943 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 97 98 W 9 4494 3543 943 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 97 97 W 10 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 96 96 W 10 3871 3323 723 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 94 94 W 10 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 92 92 W 9 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 91 91 W 9 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 90 90 W 8 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 89 89 W 8 3043 2830 230 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 88 88 W 8 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 88 88 W 7 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 87 87 W 7 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 86 86 W 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 86 86 W 6 2831 2619 19 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 85 85 W 6 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 85 85 W 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 84 85 W 5 2761 2600 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 85 87 W 6 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 86 90 W 6 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 88 93 W 6 3326 3112 512 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 91 97 W 7 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 93 98 W 7 4494 3543 943 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 95 100 W 8 6224 4165 1565 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 96 99 W 8 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 97 99 W 9 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 98 99 W 10 5480 3855 1255 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 97 97 W 10 4184 3394 794 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 12 3871 3323 723 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 94 94 W 12 3396 3182 582 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 92 92 W 12 3255 3041 441 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 91 91 W 12 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 91 91 W 12 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 91 91 W 12 3184 2971 371 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 90 90 W 10 3114 2900 300 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 89 89 W 10 3043 2830 230 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 88 88 W 9 2972 2760 160 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 87 87 W 8 2902 2689 89 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 86 86 W 7 2831 2619 19 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com