Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 66 66 N 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 N 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 N 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 79 NE 7 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 82 NE 8 10501 6906 1006 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 82 88 NE 8 16816 15620 9720 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 85 91 NE 8 18446 16687 10787 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 87 93 NE 8 18679 18232 12332 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 88 94 NE 8 18895 18398 12498 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 88 92 NE 8 18545 17424 11524 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 89 91 N 8 18446 16687 10787 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 88 89 N 8 17902 16104 10204 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 87 87 NW 8 16487 14286 8386 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 85 85 NW 9 15773 10310 4410 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 80 80 NW 10 7880 5900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 76 76 NW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 NW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 N 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 NE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 E 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SE 6 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 SE 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 79 SE 7 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 83 SE 6 13454 7834 1934 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 82 86 SE 6 16261 12680 6780 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 85 90 SE 7 18299 16420 10520 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 86 91 S 8 18446 16687 10787 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 87 91 W 9 18446 16687 10787 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 87 90 W 10 18299 16420 10520 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 88 90 W 10 18299 16420 10520 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 87 88 W 10 16816 15620 9720 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 86 86 W 10 16261 12680 6780 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 9 14714 8685 2785 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 9 6109 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 78 NW 8 6109 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 82 NW 8 10501 6906 1006 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 81 85 NW 8 15773 10310 4410 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 82 86 NW 9 16261 12680 6780 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 83 87 NW 10 16487 14286 8386 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 83 85 NW 12 15773 10310 4410 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 83 84 NW 13 14714 8685 2785 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 83 83 W 14 13454 7834 1934 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 14 10501 6906 1006 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 14 7880 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 14 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 13 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 13 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SW 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 SW 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 73 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 76 NW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 78 NW 8 6109 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 77 79 NW 9 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 78 80 NW 9 7880 5900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 78 79 NW 10 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 78 79 W 12 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 78 78 W 13 6109 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 5291 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 13 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 W 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 70 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 73 NW 7 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 75 NW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 74 76 NW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 75 77 NW 8 5291 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 75 76 NW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 76 77 NW 8 5291 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 70 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 76 W 8 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 75 78 W 8 6109 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 76 79 W 9 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 77 79 W 10 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 77 79 NW 12 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 78 79 NW 13 6929 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 77 77 NW 13 5291 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 76 76 NW 14 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 75 75 NW 14 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 13 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 W 9 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 10 4987 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com