Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 68 68 SW 8 5525 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 SW 8 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 SW 7 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 W 3 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 W 3 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 80 NW 6 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 83 NW 9 11851 9749 3469 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 79 86 NW 9 14472 11651 5371 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 82 90 N 10 17184 14988 8708 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 85 92 N 10 18354 16331 10051 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 87 93 N 9 18906 16952 10672 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 87 91 N 10 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 88 90 NE 7 17184 14988 8708 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 86 86 NW 8 14472 11651 5371 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 84 84 NW 8 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 9 10125 9080 2800 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 79 79 W 8 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 77 W 7 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 76 SW 7 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 SW 7 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 SW 7 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 SW 7 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SW 7 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 W 5 6645 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 3 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 W 3 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 79 W 5 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 81 NW 7 10125 9080 2800 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 84 NW 9 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 80 87 NW 9 15211 12605 6325 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 83 91 N 10 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 86 93 N 10 18906 16952 10672 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 88 94 N 10 19492 17546 11266 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 88 92 N 10 18354 16331 10051 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 89 91 N 10 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 87 87 NW 10 15211 12605 6325 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 13678 10559 4279 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 10 10749 9416 3136 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 10 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 SW 9 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SW 8 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 SW 8 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 SW 8 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 SW 9 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 SW 9 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 6645 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 SW 5 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 SW 3 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 S 5 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 80 E 7 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 82 NE 9 10749 9416 3136 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 79 87 NE 9 15211 12605 6325 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 83 91 N 8 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 86 93 N 8 18906 16952 10672 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 86 92 NW 10 18354 16331 10051 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 86 90 W 14 17184 14988 8708 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 16 15211 12605 6325 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 16 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 15 11851 9749 3469 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 82 82 S 14 10749 9416 3136 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 80 80 S 13 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 79 79 S 12 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 78 S 10 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 S 12 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 77 77 S 12 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 75 S 12 8080 6994 714 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 S 12 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 9 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 S 8 5142 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 S 8 5525 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 S 8 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 E 2 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 76 E 2 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 80 E 2 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 84 E 10 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 80 87 E 10 15211 12605 6325 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 82 89 E 10 16560 14254 7974 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 84 91 S 12 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 84 89 S 12 16560 14254 7974 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 85 89 S 12 16560 14254 7974 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 84 86 W 10 14472 11651 5371 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 10749 9416 3136 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 10 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 10 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 76 76 S 6 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 S 6 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 S 6 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 S 6 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 S 6 5903 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 SE 5 5525 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SE 5 5525 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SE 5 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 E 5 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 E 5 8080 6994 714 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 79 E 5 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 84 E 9 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 81 88 E 9 15904 13465 7185 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 84 91 E 9 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 85 92 E 12 18354 16331 10051 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 86 91 E 12 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 84 88 E 12 15904 13465 7185 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 83 85 SW 12 13678 10559 4279 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 83 83 SW 12 11851 9749 3469 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 83 83 SW 12 11851 9749 3469 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 82 82 E 7 10749 9416 3136 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 81 81 E 7 10125 9080 2800 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 79 79 E 7 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 77 77 E 6 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 E 6 8080 6994 714 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 E 6 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 E 6 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 E 6 6645 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 E 6 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 E 6 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 E 6 6276 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 E 6 6645 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 E 2 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 E 2 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 84 E 2 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 83 88 E 9 15904 13465 7185 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 85 91 E 9 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 84 91 E 9 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 85 91 S 9 17781 15678 9398 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 84 89 S 9 16560 14254 7974 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 83 86 S 9 14472 11651 5371 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 82 84 SW 9 12813 10078 3798 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 9792 8741 2461 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 9 9456 8399 2119 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 9118 8053 1773 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 77 77 W 8 8775 7704 1424 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 76 76 W 7 8430 7351 1071 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 W 7 7727 6633 353 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 7 7371 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 NW 7 7010 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 NW 7 6645 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 NW 7 6276 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com