Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 253 700 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 618 700 0 White 3
10 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 1057 734 34 White 5
11 AM Tue 63 68 W 10 2150 1684 984 White 10
12 Noon Tue 64 71 W 10 2672 2249 1549 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 65 72 W 10 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 66 73 NW 18 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 66 72 NW 18 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 66 70 NW 18 2585 2061 1361 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 65 67 NW 16 1933 1495 795 White 9
6 PM Tue 63 64 NW 16 1277 925 225 White 6
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 16 838 700 0 White 4
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 13 253 700 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 N 13 253 700 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 N 13 253 700 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 253 700 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 1057 734 34 White 5
10 AM Wed 65 65 N 6 1496 1115 415 White 7
11 AM Wed 67 72 W 13 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 68 75 W 13 3020 2752 2052 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 69 76 W 13 3107 2839 2139 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 10 3194 2926 2226 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 70 76 W 10 3107 2839 2139 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 70 74 W 10 2933 2665 1965 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 69 71 S 5 2672 2249 1549 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 67 68 S 5 2150 1684 984 White 10
7 PM Wed 65 65 S 5 1496 1115 415 White 7
8 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 1057 734 34 White 5
9 PM Wed 62 62 S 5 838 700 0 White 4
10 PM Wed 61 61 S 5 618 700 0 White 3
11 PM Wed 60 60 SE 3 398 700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SE 3 398 700 0 White 2
1 AM Thu 60 60 SE 3 398 700 0 White 2
2 AM Thu 59 59 SE 3 253 700 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SE 3 253 700 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 253 700 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 253 700 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 253 700 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 253 700 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 W 2 618 700 0 White 3
9 AM Thu 64 66 W 2 1714 1305 605 White 8
10 AM Thu 65 69 W 2 2368 1873 1173 White 11
11 AM Thu 66 71 W 10 2672 2249 1549 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 66 73 W 10 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 67 74 W 10 2933 2665 1965 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 68 75 W 10 3020 2752 2052 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 68 74 W 10 2933 2665 1965 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 68 72 W 10 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 67 69 SW 8 2368 1873 1173 White 11
6 PM Thu 65 66 SW 8 1714 1305 605 White 8
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 1057 734 34 White 5
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 618 700 0 White 3
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 398 700 0 White 2
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 8 253 700 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 SW 3 253 700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 3 253 700 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 3 253 700 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 253 700 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 S 5 838 700 0 White 4
10 AM Fri 61 65 S 5 1496 1115 415 White 7
11 AM Fri 61 66 SW 12 1714 1305 605 White 8
12 Noon Fri 62 69 SW 12 2368 1873 1173 White 11
1 PM Fri 63 70 SW 12 2585 2061 1361 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 63 70 SW 12 2585 2061 1361 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 63 69 SW 12 2368 1873 1173 White 11
4 PM Fri 63 67 SW 12 1933 1495 795 White 9
5 PM Fri 62 64 SW 12 1277 925 225 White 6
6 PM Fri 61 62 SW 12 838 700 0 White 4
7 PM Fri 60 60 SW 12 398 700 0 White 2
8 PM Fri 59 59 SW 12 253 700 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 253 700 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 253 700 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 SW 7 253 700 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 838 700 0 White 4
10 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 1277 925 225 White 6
11 AM Sat 64 69 SW 10 2368 1873 1173 White 11
12 Noon Sat 65 72 SW 10 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 66 73 SW 10 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 67 74 SW 10 2933 2665 1965 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 67 73 SW 10 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 67 71 SW 10 2672 2249 1549 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 66 68 SW 10 2150 1684 984 White 10
6 PM Sat 65 66 SW 10 1714 1305 605 White 8
7 PM Sat 63 63 SW 10 1057 734 34 White 5
8 PM Sat 61 61 SW 10 618 700 0 White 3
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 10 398 700 0 White 2
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 10 398 700 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 253 700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NW 3 253 700 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 253 700 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 253 700 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 N 3 253 700 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 398 700 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 1057 734 34 White 5
10 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 1277 925 225 White 6
11 AM Sun 65 70 W 12 2585 2061 1361 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 65 72 W 12 2759 2437 1737 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 66 73 W 12 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 67 74 W 12 2933 2665 1965 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 67 73 W 12 2846 2579 1879 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 67 71 W 12 2672 2249 1549 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 66 68 W 12 2150 1684 984 White 10
6 PM Sun 65 66 W 12 1714 1305 605 White 8
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 12 1057 734 34 White 5
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 12 618 700 0 White 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 12 398 700 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 12 398 700 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 0 253 700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 0 253 700 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 0 253 700 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 0 253 700 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 0 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com