Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NW 8 9 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 47 47 NW 8 9 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 6 8 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 6 8 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 6 8 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 6 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 44 44 W 6 6 3012 3100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 6 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 50 51 W 6 6 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 52 54 W 6 6 3334 3195 95 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 54 58 W 6 6 4801 3656 556 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 55 58 W 13 20 4801 3656 556 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 56 60 W 13 20 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 56 60 W 13 20 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 57 61 W 16 24 5432 4758 1658 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 58 61 W 16 24 5432 4758 1658 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 58 60 W 16 24 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 58 59 W 11 17 5104 3950 850 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 11 17 3958 3257 157 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 11 17 3258 3168 68 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 49 49 WNW 12 19 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 47 47 WNW 12 19 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 47 47 WNW 12 19 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 46 46 NW 11 17 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NW 11 17 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 11 17 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 4 4 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 44 44 NNW 4 4 3012 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 43 43 NNW 4 4 2908 3100 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NNW 4 4 2598 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NNW 4 4 2598 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NNW 4 4 2598 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 9 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 50 51 N 9 9 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 51 54 N 9 9 3334 3195 95 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 53 57 W 11 17 4178 3329 229 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 54 59 W 11 17 5104 3950 850 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 55 60 W 11 17 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 57 62 W 11 17 5596 5091 1991 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 60 64 W 11 17 6348 5417 2317 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 61 64 W 11 17 6348 5417 2317 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 59 60 NNW 12 19 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 57 57 NNW 12 19 4178 3329 229 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 54 54 NNW 12 19 3334 3195 95 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 51 51 NW 17 26 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 50 50 NW 17 26 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 49 49 NW 17 26 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 49 49 NNW 14 23 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NNW 14 23 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 14 23 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 18 27 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 18 27 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 18 27 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 18 27 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 18 27 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 18 27 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 51 51 N 18 27 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 54 55 N 18 27 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 57 60 N 18 27 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 60 65 WNW 18 27 6555 5580 2480 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 63 69 WNW 18 27 7208 6729 3629 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 65 72 WNW 18 27 9047 7125 4025 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 66 72 WNW 26 34 9047 7125 4025 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 64 69 WNW 26 34 7208 6729 3629 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 63 66 WNW 26 34 6747 5743 2643 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 61 62 WNW 29 39 5596 5091 1991 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 29 39 4178 3329 229 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 29 39 3221 3142 42 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 48 48 NW 31 40 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 47 47 NW 31 40 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 31 40 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 46 46 NW 29 39 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NW 29 39 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 29 39 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 24 31 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 24 31 3038 3100 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 46 46 NNW 24 31 3064 3100 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 24 31 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 24 31 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 24 31 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 50 51 NNW 16 20 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 53 55 NNW 16 20 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 56 59 NNW 16 20 5104 3950 850 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 59 65 WNW 13 18 6555 5580 2480 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 61 68 WNW 13 18 7012 6528 3428 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 63 71 WNW 13 18 8459 6993 3893 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 64 71 W 14 21 8459 6993 3893 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 65 71 W 14 21 8459 6993 3893 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 65 69 W 14 21 7208 6729 3629 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 64 66 WNW 14 21 6747 5743 2643 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 14 21 5432 4758 1658 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 14 21 4178 3329 229 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 53 53 NW 14 19 3258 3168 68 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 51 51 NW 14 19 3195 3116 16 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 50 50 NW 14 19 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 14 19 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NNW 14 19 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 49 49 NNW 14 19 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 12 17 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 12 17 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 12 17 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 11 14 3090 3100 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 11 14 3117 3100 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 11 14 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 51 52 N 10 13 3221 3142 42 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 54 56 N 10 13 3958 3257 157 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 57 61 N 10 13 5432 4758 1658 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 60 66 W 9 12 6747 5743 2643 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 62 69 W 9 12 7208 6729 3629 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 64 72 W 9 12 9047 7125 4025 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 66 73 W 11 14 9476 7741 4641 White 30
3 PM Sun 67 73 W 11 14 9476 7741 4641 White 30
4 PM Sun 67 71 W 11 14 8459 6993 3893 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 66 68 WNW 12 18 7012 6528 3428 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 12 18 5760 5254 2154 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 12 18 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 57 57 NNW 13 18 4178 3329 229 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 56 56 NNW 13 18 3958 3257 157 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 55 55 NNW 13 18 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 55 55 N 16 20 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 16 20 3334 3195 95 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 16 20 3258 3168 68 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 18 3221 3142 42 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 18 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 13 18 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 12 16 3143 3100 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 16 3169 3100 0 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 16 3221 3142 42 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 54 55 N 11 14 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 58 60 N 11 14 5268 4146 1046 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 61 65 N 11 14 6555 5580 2480 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 64 70 W 10 13 7848 6861 3761 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 66 73 W 10 13 9476 7741 4641 White 30
1 PM Mon 67 75 W 10 13 9901 8925 5825 White 32
2 PM Mon 68 75 W 12 16 9901 8925 5825 White 32
3 PM Mon 69 75 W 12 16 9901 8925 5825 White 32
4 PM Mon 69 73 W 12 16 9476 7741 4641 White 30
5 PM Mon 68 70 W 13 18 7848 6861 3761 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 13 18 6555 5580 2480 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 18 5432 4758 1658 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 13 18 4801 3656 556 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 55 55 NNW 13 18 3668 3221 121 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 54 54 NNW 13 18 3334 3195 95 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]