Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 67 67 S 1 3485 3215 115 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 S 1 3396 3125 25 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 S 1 3396 3125 25 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NW 2 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 NW 2 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 NW 2 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 75 81 W 7 4744 4468 1368 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 82 W 7 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 76 84 W 7 5320 4738 1638 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 77 84 W 9 5320 4738 1638 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 79 85 W 9 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 9 4952 4648 1548 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 78 80 NW 16 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 77 78 NW 16 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 78 NW 16 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 77 N 16 4384 4109 1009 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 77 N 16 4384 4109 1009 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 N 16 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 N 24 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 N 24 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 N 24 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 N 23 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 N 23 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 N 23 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 NE 13 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 NE 13 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 NE 13 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 N 16 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 N 16 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 82 N 16 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 79 85 SW 8 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 79 86 SW 8 6042 4925 1825 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 81 89 SW 8 7095 6004 2904 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 82 89 W 12 7095 6004 2904 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 84 90 W 12 7439 6355 3255 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 83 87 W 12 6397 5289 2189 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 83 85 N 13 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 81 82 N 13 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 82 82 N 13 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 81 81 N 13 4744 4468 1368 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 81 81 N 13 4744 4468 1368 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 N 13 4384 4109 1009 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 NE 15 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 NE 15 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 NE 15 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 NE 15 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 NE 15 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 NE 15 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 NW 2 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 NW 2 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 79 NW 2 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 82 S 6 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 83 S 6 4952 4648 1548 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 77 85 S 6 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 78 85 S 6 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 79 85 S 6 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 78 82 S 6 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 78 80 W 3 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 3 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 3 4384 4109 1009 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 3 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 3 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 W 3 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 E 6 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 E 6 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 E 6 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 E 6 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 E 6 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 E 6 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 E 8 3396 3125 25 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 E 8 3396 3125 25 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 8 3485 3215 115 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 E 8 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 76 E 8 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 79 SW 8 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 80 SW 8 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 74 82 SW 8 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 75 82 SW 8 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 76 82 SW 8 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 76 80 SW 8 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 75 77 SW 8 4384 4109 1009 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 75 SW 8 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 E 7 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 E 7 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 E 7 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 E 7 3754 3483 383 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 E 7 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 E 7 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 3575 3304 204 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SE 7 3485 3215 115 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SE 7 3485 3215 115 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 SE 7 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 SE 7 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 79 SE 7 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 82 SW 10 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 83 SW 10 4952 4648 1548 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 77 85 SW 10 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 78 85 SW 10 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 80 86 SW 10 6042 4925 1825 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 80 84 SW 10 5320 4738 1638 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 79 81 SW 10 4744 4468 1368 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 78 79 SW 10 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 10 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 78 SW 10 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 78 78 SW 10 4473 4199 1099 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 SW 10 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 N 6 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 N 6 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 N 6 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 N 6 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 N 6 3934 3662 562 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 N 6 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 3665 3393 293 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3844 3572 472 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 N 3 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 80 N 3 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 83 SW 8 4952 4648 1548 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 77 84 SW 8 5320 4738 1638 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 79 87 SW 8 6397 5289 2189 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 80 87 SW 8 6397 5289 2189 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 81 87 SW 8 6397 5289 2189 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 81 85 SW 8 5683 4827 1727 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 80 82 W 8 4834 4558 1458 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 8 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 4654 4378 1278 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 4564 4289 1189 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 8 4294 4020 920 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 N 7 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 N 7 4204 3930 830 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 74 N 7 4114 3841 741 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 N 7 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 N 7 4024 3751 651 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 N 7 3934 3662 562 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com