Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 4236 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 W 6 4145 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 4236 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 SW 6 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 SW 7 5127 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 78 82 S 8 6945 5843 1073 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 81 87 S 10 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 85 92 S 12 10305 9273 4503 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 88 96 SW 13 13980 11070 6300 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 91 98 SW 15 15418 12925 8155 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 91 97 SW 16 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 92 96 SW 16 13980 11070 6300 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 91 93 SW 17 11321 9598 4828 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 90 91 W 17 9983 8945 4175 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 87 87 W 17 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 83 83 W 17 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 81 81 W 18 6589 5479 709 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 79 79 W 14 5867 4872 102 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 78 78 W 13 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 W 10 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 W 10 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 W 9 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 W 8 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 W 8 4419 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 4327 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 W 7 4236 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 4327 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 NW 7 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 NW 6 5127 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 79 83 SW 7 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 83 89 E 8 9331 8280 3510 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 86 93 E 8 11321 9598 4828 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 89 97 E 8 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 91 98 SW 10 15418 12925 8155 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 93 99 SW 10 16075 13724 8954 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 93 97 SW 10 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 93 95 SW 14 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 90 91 SW 14 9983 8945 4175 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 14 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 18 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 81 81 W 18 6589 5479 709 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 79 79 W 18 5867 4872 102 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 78 78 W 14 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 14 5127 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 14 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 9 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 W 9 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 4419 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 W 7 4327 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 W 7 4327 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 7 4419 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 W 7 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 W 7 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 79 83 W 7 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 82 88 SW 9 9000 7943 3173 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 85 92 SW 9 10305 9273 4503 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 89 97 SW 9 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 91 94 SW 15 12302 9920 5150 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 92 95 SW 15 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 92 94 SW 15 12302 9920 5150 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 92 94 SW 18 12302 9920 5150 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 90 90 SW 18 9658 8614 3844 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 18 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 14 7644 6558 1788 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 82 82 SW 14 6945 5843 1073 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 14 6230 5111 341 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 79 79 SW 10 5867 4872 102 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 SW 10 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 76 76 SW 10 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 75 SW 7 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 SW 7 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 SW 7 4510 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 W 6 4419 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 W 6 4419 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 W 6 4510 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 SE 6 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 SE 6 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 79 83 SE 6 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 82 88 S 9 9000 7943 3173 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 85 92 S 9 10305 9273 4503 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 88 96 S 9 13980 11070 6300 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 90 97 S 13 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 91 97 S 13 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 91 95 S 13 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 91 93 S 14 11321 9598 4828 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 89 90 S 14 9658 8614 3844 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 87 87 S 14 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 7644 6558 1788 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 12 6945 5843 1073 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 80 80 SW 12 6230 5111 341 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 78 78 SW 9 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 SW 9 5127 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 76 76 SW 9 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 75 75 SW 7 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 74 74 SW 7 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 SW 7 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 S 6 4510 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 S 6 4510 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 S 6 4601 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 76 S 6 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 S 6 6230 5111 341 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 81 85 S 6 7988 6910 2140 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 84 90 S 9 9658 8614 3844 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 87 94 S 9 12302 9920 5150 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 89 97 S 9 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 91 98 S 13 15418 12925 8155 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 93 99 S 13 16075 13724 8954 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 93 97 S 13 14722 12050 7280 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 93 95 S 14 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 91 91 S 14 9983 8945 4175 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 88 88 S 14 9000 7943 3173 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 85 85 SW 14 7988 6910 2140 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 83 83 SW 14 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 82 82 SW 14 6945 5843 1073 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 81 81 SW 10 6589 5479 709 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 SW 10 6230 5111 341 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 79 79 SW 10 5867 4872 102 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 78 78 W 7 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 76 76 W 7 4875 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 75 75 W 7 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 W 6 4692 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 W 6 4784 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 78 W 6 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 79 81 W 6 6589 5479 709 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 82 86 W 6 8328 7258 2488 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 85 91 S 8 9983 8945 4175 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 88 95 S 8 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 91 99 S 8 16075 13724 8954 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 93 100 S 10 16700 14465 9695 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 94 100 S 10 16700 14465 9695 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 94 98 S 10 15418 12925 8155 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 93 95 S 15 13179 10239 5469 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 91 91 S 15 9983 8945 4175 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 89 89 S 15 9331 8280 3510 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 87 87 SW 13 8666 7602 2832 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 86 86 SW 13 8328 7258 2488 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 84 84 SW 13 7644 6558 1788 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 9 7296 6202 1432 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 W 9 6945 5843 1073 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 80 80 W 9 6230 5111 341 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 79 79 W 7 5867 4872 102 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 78 78 W 7 5499 4781 11 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 77 77 W 7 5127 4770 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com