Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 67 67 W 2 3801 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 3711 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 3711 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 W 2 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 W 2 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 79 W 2 4889 4613 653 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 82 W 7 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 77 84 W 7 6630 5524 1564 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 77 85 W 7 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 79 86 W 9 7330 6240 2280 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 80 86 W 9 7330 6240 2280 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 9 6274 5159 1199 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 79 81 NW 17 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 77 78 NW 17 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 17 4707 4432 472 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 76 76 N 17 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 N 17 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 N 17 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 N 22 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 N 22 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 N 22 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 N 22 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 N 22 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 N 22 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 12 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NE 12 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NE 12 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 N 14 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 N 14 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 83 N 14 6274 5159 1199 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 81 87 SW 8 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 81 88 SW 8 8016 6941 2981 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 82 90 SW 8 8688 7627 3667 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 84 91 W 13 9019 7965 4005 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 85 91 W 13 9019 7965 4005 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 84 88 W 13 8016 6941 2981 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 83 85 N 12 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 81 82 N 12 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 81 81 N 12 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 79 79 N 12 4889 4613 653 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 79 79 N 12 4889 4613 653 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 76 N 12 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 NE 10 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 NE 10 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 NE 10 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NE 10 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NE 10 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 NE 10 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 NW 2 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 81 NW 2 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 78 84 SW 6 6630 5524 1564 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 78 85 SW 6 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 79 87 SW 6 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 80 87 SW 6 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 81 87 SW 6 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 80 84 SW 6 6630 5524 1564 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 79 81 W 3 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 3 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 3 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 3 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 3 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 3 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 SE 5 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SE 5 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SE 5 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 SE 5 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 SE 8 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 SE 8 3711 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 SE 8 3711 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 SE 8 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 SE 8 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 78 SE 8 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 76 82 SW 8 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 76 83 SW 8 6274 5159 1199 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 76 84 SW 8 6630 5524 1564 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 78 85 SW 8 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 79 85 SW 8 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 78 82 SW 8 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 78 80 SW 8 5181 4703 743 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 76 77 SW 8 4707 4432 472 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 8 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 E 7 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 E 7 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 E 7 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 E 7 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 E 7 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 E 7 3982 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 8 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SE 8 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 SE 8 3892 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 SE 8 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 SE 8 4617 4341 381 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 81 SE 8 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 78 84 SW 10 6630 5524 1564 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 79 86 SW 10 7330 6240 2280 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 79 87 SW 10 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 81 88 SW 10 8016 6941 2981 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 82 88 SW 10 8016 6941 2981 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 81 85 SW 10 6982 5884 1924 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 80 82 SW 10 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 79 80 SW 10 5181 4703 743 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 10 4889 4613 653 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 10 4707 4432 472 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 77 77 SW 10 4707 4432 472 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 SW 10 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 N 6 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 N 6 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 N 6 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 N 6 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 N 6 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 N 6 4163 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 N 3 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 4073 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 N 3 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 N 3 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 82 N 3 5914 4884 924 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 80 86 SW 8 7330 6240 2280 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 80 87 SW 8 7675 6593 2633 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 80 88 SW 8 8016 6941 2981 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 82 89 SW 8 8354 7286 3326 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 83 89 SW 8 8354 7286 3326 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 82 86 SW 8 7330 6240 2280 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 81 83 W 8 6274 5159 1199 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 8 5550 4794 834 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 5181 4703 743 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 4798 4522 562 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 75 W 8 4526 4251 291 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 8 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 N 8 4435 4161 201 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 N 8 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 N 8 4345 4070 110 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 72 N 8 4254 3980 20 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 N 8 4254 3980 20 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com