Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 64 54 NW 2 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 53 NW 2 1636 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 54 NW 2 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 56 W 2 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 61 W 2 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 75 69 W 2 3555 3284 684 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 80 76 SW 6 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 83 80 SW 6 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 83 81 SW 6 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 83 80 W 8 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 84 80 W 8 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 84 78 W 8 4361 4087 1487 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 83 75 SW 12 4092 3819 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 81 72 SW 12 3823 3552 952 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 79 69 SW 12 3555 3284 684 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 75 65 N 12 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 75 65 N 12 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 74 64 N 12 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 73 63 N 5 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 73 63 N 5 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 72 62 N 5 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 71 61 N 5 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 69 59 N 5 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 68 58 N 5 2572 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 57 N 5 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 56 N 5 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 57 N 5 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 59 NE 5 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 72 64 NE 5 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 78 72 NE 5 3823 3552 952 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 83 79 SW 9 4451 4177 1577 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 86 83 SW 9 4810 4535 1935 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 86 84 SW 9 4900 4624 2024 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 86 83 W 8 4810 4535 1935 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 87 83 W 8 4810 4535 1935 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 87 81 W 8 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 86 78 NW 2 4361 4087 1487 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 84 75 NW 2 4092 3819 1219 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 81 71 NW 2 3734 3462 862 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 77 67 NW 2 3376 3106 506 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 76 66 NW 2 3287 3017 417 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 75 65 NW 2 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 75 65 SE 6 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 74 64 SE 6 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 73 63 SE 6 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 72 62 SE 6 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 70 60 SE 6 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 68 58 SE 6 2572 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 57 SE 5 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 56 SE 5 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 57 SE 5 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 58 SE 5 2572 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 63 SE 5 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 76 70 SE 5 3644 3373 773 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 80 76 S 8 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 83 80 S 8 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 83 81 S 8 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 84 81 S 8 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 84 80 S 8 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 84 78 S 8 4361 4087 1487 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 83 75 SW 3 4092 3819 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 81 72 SW 3 3823 3552 952 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 78 68 SW 3 3465 3195 595 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 74 64 SW 3 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 73 63 SW 3 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 72 62 SW 3 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 72 62 SE 6 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 71 61 SE 6 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 70 60 SE 6 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 69 59 SE 6 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 67 57 SE 6 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 55 SE 6 2027 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 54 SE 7 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 53 SE 7 1636 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 54 SE 7 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 55 SE 7 2027 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 60 SE 7 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 72 66 SE 7 3287 3017 417 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 76 72 SW 9 3823 3552 952 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 79 76 SW 9 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 79 77 SW 9 4272 3998 1398 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 80 77 SW 9 4272 3998 1398 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 76 SW 9 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 80 74 SW 9 4003 3730 1130 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 79 71 SW 9 3734 3462 862 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 77 68 SW 9 3465 3195 595 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 75 65 SW 9 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 72 62 SW 9 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 71 61 SW 9 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 70 60 SW 9 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 70 60 SE 7 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 70 60 SE 7 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 69 59 SE 7 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 68 58 SE 7 2572 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 56 SE 7 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 55 SE 7 2027 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 54 SE 8 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 53 SE 8 1636 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 54 SE 8 1832 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 56 SE 8 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 61 SE 8 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 75 69 SE 8 3555 3284 684 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 80 76 SW 12 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 83 80 SW 12 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 83 81 SW 12 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 83 80 SW 12 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 84 80 SW 12 4541 4266 1666 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 84 78 SW 12 4361 4087 1487 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 83 75 SW 12 4092 3819 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 81 72 SW 12 3823 3552 952 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 79 69 SW 12 3555 3284 684 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 75 65 SW 12 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 75 65 SW 12 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 74 64 SW 12 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 73 63 NW 3 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 73 63 NW 3 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 72 62 NW 3 2929 2661 61 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 71 61 NW 3 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 69 59 NW 3 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 68 58 NW 3 2572 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 57 NW 3 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 56 NW 3 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 57 NW 3 2417 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 59 NW 3 2662 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 72 64 NW 3 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 71 NW 3 3734 3462 862 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 81 77 W 12 4272 3998 1398 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 84 81 W 12 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 84 82 W 12 4720 4445 1845 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 84 81 W 12 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 85 81 W 12 4631 4356 1756 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 85 79 W 12 4451 4177 1577 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 84 76 W 12 4182 3909 1309 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 82 73 W 12 3913 3641 1041 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 80 70 W 12 3644 3373 773 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 76 66 W 12 3287 3017 417 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 75 65 W 12 3197 2928 328 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 74 64 W 12 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 74 64 W 6 3108 2839 239 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 73 63 W 6 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 73 63 W 6 3018 2750 150 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 71 61 W 6 2840 2600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 70 60 W 6 2751 2600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 68 58 W 6 2572 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com