Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 NW 2 3347 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NW 2 3256 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 3439 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 NW 3 4170 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 NW 3 5621 4810 110 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 78 82 NW 3 7771 6686 1986 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 79 85 SW 6 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 81 88 SW 6 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 83 91 SW 6 11761 9733 5033 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 83 90 SW 6 10688 9408 4708 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 83 89 SW 6 10117 9079 4379 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 83 87 SW 6 9462 8412 3712 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 83 85 N 8 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 82 83 N 8 8116 7038 2338 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 81 81 N 8 7422 6329 1629 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 78 78 N 8 6354 5235 535 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 73 73 N 8 4812 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 N 8 4537 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 N 10 4262 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 N 10 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 10 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 7 3804 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 7 3713 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 3439 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 3621 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 N 6 4445 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 79 N 6 6714 5604 904 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 81 85 N 6 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 82 88 SW 7 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 84 91 SW 7 11761 9733 5033 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 86 94 SW 7 14330 11521 6821 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 86 93 SW 7 13550 10452 5752 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 86 92 SW 7 12701 10056 5356 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 86 90 SW 7 10688 9408 4708 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 86 88 N 10 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 85 86 N 10 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 84 84 N 10 8458 7387 2687 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 80 80 N 10 7070 5969 1269 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 75 75 N 10 5248 4719 19 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 72 72 N 10 4720 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 N 13 4445 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 13 4262 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 N 13 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 N 13 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 N 13 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 N 13 3804 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 3713 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 3713 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 4445 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 N 2 6354 5235 535 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 79 83 N 2 8116 7038 2338 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 80 86 S 7 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 82 89 S 7 10117 9079 4379 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 84 92 S 7 12701 10056 5356 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 84 91 S 7 11761 9733 5033 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 84 90 S 7 10688 9408 4708 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 84 88 S 7 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 84 86 S 2 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 83 84 S 2 8458 7387 2687 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 82 82 S 2 7771 6686 1986 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 78 78 S 2 6354 5235 535 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 73 73 S 2 4812 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 S 2 4537 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 SE 1 4262 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SE 1 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 SE 1 3896 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 SE 1 3896 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SE 1 3804 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 1 3621 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 E 1 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 1 3347 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 E 1 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 E 1 4170 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 E 1 4904 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 79 E 1 6714 5604 904 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 76 82 S 7 7771 6686 1986 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 77 84 S 7 8458 7387 2687 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 79 87 S 7 9462 8412 3712 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 79 86 S 7 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 79 85 S 7 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 79 83 S 7 8116 7038 2338 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 79 81 S 7 7422 6329 1629 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 78 79 S 7 6714 5604 904 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 77 77 S 7 5989 4902 202 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 7 5248 4719 19 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 70 70 S 7 4537 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 S 7 4354 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 E 5 4170 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 E 5 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 E 5 3896 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 E 5 3896 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 E 5 3804 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 3713 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 3439 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 E 5 3621 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 E 5 4262 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 E 5 5248 4719 19 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 77 81 E 5 7422 6329 1629 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 78 84 SW 8 8458 7387 2687 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 79 86 SW 8 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 81 89 SW 8 10117 9079 4379 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 81 88 SW 8 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 81 87 SW 8 9462 8412 3712 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 81 85 SW 8 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 81 83 SW 8 8116 7038 2338 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 80 81 SW 8 7422 6329 1629 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 8 6714 5604 904 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 8 5989 4902 202 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 72 72 SW 8 4720 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 8 4537 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 3 4354 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 3 4170 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 3896 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 3713 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 3621 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 2 3804 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 N 2 4445 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 N 2 5989 4902 202 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 78 82 N 2 7771 6686 1986 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 79 85 SW 6 8796 7732 3032 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 80 87 SW 6 9462 8412 3712 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 82 90 SW 6 10688 9408 4708 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 82 89 SW 6 10117 9079 4379 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 82 88 SW 6 9791 8747 4047 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 82 86 SW 6 9131 8074 3374 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 82 84 SW 6 8458 7387 2687 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 81 82 SW 6 7771 6686 1986 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 6 7070 5969 1269 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 6 5989 4902 202 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 73 73 SW 6 4812 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 4537 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 3 4354 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 N 3 4262 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 4079 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 N 3 3987 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 3 3896 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com