Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 W 3 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 W 3 7573 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 76 W 3 9321 8259 1259 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 82 W 6 13390 10286 3286 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 79 86 W 6 16364 14008 7008 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 80 88 W 6 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 81 88 NW 8 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 81 87 NW 8 17003 14766 7766 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 80 84 NW 8 14977 12292 5292 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 78 80 N 13 11467 9623 2623 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 76 77 N 13 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 75 75 N 13 8979 7909 909 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 13 6847 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 N 13 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 N 13 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 9 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 9 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 9 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 N 10 6478 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 N 10 7930 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 77 N 10 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 77 83 NW 13 14214 11284 4284 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 80 87 NW 13 17003 14766 7766 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 82 90 NW 13 18760 16780 9780 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 82 89 NW 14 18197 16144 9144 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 82 88 NW 14 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 81 85 NW 14 15691 13189 6189 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 79 81 N 13 12484 9956 2956 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 77 78 N 13 9997 8948 1948 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 76 76 N 13 9321 8259 1259 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 N 13 6847 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 N 13 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 N 13 5343 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 12 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 10 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 10 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 N 10 6478 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 N 10 7930 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 77 N 10 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 77 83 NW 8 14214 11284 4284 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 80 87 NW 8 17003 14766 7766 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 82 90 NW 8 18760 16780 9780 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 82 89 NW 8 18197 16144 9144 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 82 88 NW 8 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 81 85 NW 8 15691 13189 6189 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 79 81 NW 5 12484 9956 2956 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 77 78 NW 5 9997 8948 1948 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 5 9321 8259 1259 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 NW 5 7212 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 6104 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 5343 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 SE 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 SE 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 SE 5 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 SE 5 7212 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 75 SE 5 8979 7909 909 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 79 SW 7 10330 9287 2287 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 82 SW 7 13390 10286 3286 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 77 85 SW 7 15691 13189 6189 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 77 84 SW 7 14977 12292 5292 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 77 83 SW 7 14214 11284 4284 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 76 80 SW 7 11467 9623 2623 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 75 77 SW 7 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 74 SW 7 8633 7556 556 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 7 8283 7199 199 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 6478 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 7 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SE 7 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 SE 7 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SE 7 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 6478 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 SE 7 7930 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 SE 7 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 82 SW 9 13390 10286 3286 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 78 85 SW 9 15691 13189 6189 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 80 88 SW 9 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 80 87 SW 9 17003 14766 7766 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 80 86 SW 9 16364 14008 7008 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 79 83 SW 9 14214 11284 4284 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 78 80 SW 9 11467 9623 2623 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 76 77 SW 9 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 8979 7909 909 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 SW 9 7212 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 9 6104 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 9 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 6 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 NE 6 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 N 6 6847 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 N 6 8283 7199 199 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 78 N 6 9997 8948 1948 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 83 SW 7 14214 11284 4284 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 79 86 SW 7 16364 14008 7008 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 81 89 SW 7 18197 16144 9144 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 81 88 SW 7 17613 15475 8475 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 81 87 SW 7 17003 14766 7766 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 80 84 SW 7 14977 12292 5292 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 79 81 SW 7 12484 9956 2956 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 76 77 SW 7 9661 8605 1605 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 7 9321 8259 1259 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 7 7212 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 7 6478 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 7 5726 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 N 8 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 8 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 N 8 4955 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 4915 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 8 4915 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com