Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 2 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 1738 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 N 2 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 69 71 N 2 3321 3052 282 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 74 78 N 2 3942 3670 900 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 79 85 SW 6 4563 4289 1519 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 6 5294 4732 1962 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 85 93 SW 6 6354 5252 2482 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 86 93 SW 8 6354 5252 2482 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 86 92 SW 8 6005 4910 2140 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 86 90 SW 8 5294 4732 1962 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 85 87 SW 12 4741 4466 1696 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 84 85 SW 12 4563 4289 1519 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 4208 3935 1165 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 78 78 E 12 3942 3670 900 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 73 73 E 12 3498 3228 458 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 70 70 E 12 3233 2963 193 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 67 67 N 6 2967 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 6 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 5 2791 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 71 73 NE 5 3498 3228 458 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 77 81 NE 5 4208 3935 1165 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 82 88 SW 8 4830 4555 1785 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 85 92 SW 8 6005 4910 2140 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 87 95 SW 8 7042 5955 3185 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 88 95 SW 8 7042 5955 3185 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 88 94 SW 8 6700 5605 2835 Blue 32
4 PM Wed 88 92 SW 8 6005 4910 2140 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 87 89 S 2 4933 4643 1873 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 86 87 S 2 4741 4466 1696 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 83 83 S 2 4385 4112 1342 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 79 79 S 2 4030 3758 988 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 74 74 S 2 3587 3316 546 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 71 71 S 2 3321 3052 282 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 68 68 SE 6 3056 2787 17 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SE 6 2967 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 66 66 SE 6 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 65 65 SE 6 2791 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 64 64 SE 5 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 62 62 SE 5 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SE 5 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 SE 5 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 70 72 SE 5 3410 3140 370 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 75 79 SE 5 4030 3758 988 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 79 85 S 8 4563 4289 1519 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 82 89 S 8 4933 4643 1873 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 83 91 S 8 5651 4821 2051 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 84 91 S 8 5651 4821 2051 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 84 90 S 8 5294 4732 1962 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 84 88 S 8 4830 4555 1785 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 83 85 S 5 4563 4289 1519 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 82 83 S 5 4385 4112 1342 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 79 79 S 5 4030 3758 988 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 76 76 S 5 3764 3493 723 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 71 71 S 5 3321 3052 282 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 68 68 S 5 3056 2787 17 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 65 65 SE 6 2791 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SE 6 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 64 64 SE 6 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 62 62 SE 6 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SE 6 2614 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 62 62 SE 6 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SE 6 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 2125 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 SE 6 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SE 6 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 68 70 SE 6 3233 2963 193 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 73 77 SE 6 3853 3581 811 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 77 83 S 13 4385 4112 1342 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 81 88 S 13 4830 4555 1785 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 82 90 S 13 5294 4732 1962 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 83 90 S 13 5294 4732 1962 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 83 89 S 13 4933 4643 1873 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 83 87 S 13 4741 4466 1696 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 82 84 S 13 4474 4200 1430 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 81 82 S 13 4297 4023 1253 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 78 78 S 13 3942 3670 900 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 13 3675 3404 634 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 70 70 S 13 3233 2963 193 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 67 67 S 13 2967 2770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 64 64 SE 7 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SE 7 2614 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 63 63 SE 7 2614 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 61 61 SE 7 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 SE 7 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SE 7 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 E 7 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 E 7 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 E 7 1738 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 E 7 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 69 70 E 7 3233 2963 193 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 75 77 E 7 3853 3581 811 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 80 86 SW 14 4652 4377 1607 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 84 91 SW 14 5651 4821 2051 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 86 94 SW 14 6700 5605 2835 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 87 94 SW 14 6700 5605 2835 Blue 32
3 PM Sat 87 93 SW 14 6354 5252 2482 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 87 91 SW 14 5651 4821 2051 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 86 88 SW 14 4830 4555 1785 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 85 86 SW 14 4652 4377 1607 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 14 4297 4023 1253 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 78 78 SW 14 3942 3670 900 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 14 3587 3316 546 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 3233 2963 193 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 3 3056 2787 17 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 3 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 3 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 2791 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 2 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 62 62 NW 2 2510 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 2317 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 71 72 NW 2 3410 3140 370 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 77 79 NW 2 4030 3758 988 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 82 88 SW 15 4830 4555 1785 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SW 15 6005 4910 2140 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 87 95 SW 15 7042 5955 3185 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 88 95 SW 15 7042 5955 3185 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 15 6700 5605 2835 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 15 6005 4910 2140 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 15 4933 4643 1873 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 86 87 SW 15 4741 4466 1696 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 15 4385 4112 1342 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 15 4030 3758 988 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 74 74 SW 15 3587 3316 546 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 15 3321 3052 282 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 1 3056 2787 17 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 N 1 2967 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 2879 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 1 2702 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 2791 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 64 64 N 1 2702 2770 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com