Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 WNW 4 5 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 WNW 4 5 1565 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 N 4 5 1565 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 4 5 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 4 5 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 4 5 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 4 5 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 4 5 735 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 WSW 5 6 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 5 6 3095 2770 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 5 6 3313 2770 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 58 61 WSW 11 17 4617 4617 1847 White 9
12 Noon Thu 60 63 WSW 11 17 5050 4934 2164 White 11
1 PM Thu 60 64 WSW 11 17 5263 5053 2283 White 12
2 PM Thu 59 62 W 17 26 4836 4799 2029 White 10
3 PM Thu 63 66 W 17 26 5688 5646 2876 White 14
4 PM Thu 63 64 W 17 26 5263 5053 2283 White 12
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 14 23 5475 5351 2581 White 13
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 14 23 5050 4934 2164 White 11
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 23 3964 3964 1194 White 6
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 23 2322 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 23 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 23 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 8 9 1565 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 8 9 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 9 788 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SSE 8 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 8 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 SSE 8 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SE 6 8 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 8 788 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 SE 6 8 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 SSW 5 6 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 5 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 5 6 2322 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 54 SSW 12 19 3095 2770 0 White 2
12 Noon Fri 53 56 SSW 12 19 3531 3217 447 White 4
1 PM Fri 55 58 SSW 12 19 3964 3964 1194 White 6
2 PM Fri 52 55 SSW 10 16 3313 2770 0 White 3
3 PM Fri 52 54 SSW 10 16 3095 2770 0 White 2
4 PM Fri 45 46 SSW 10 16 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 S 14 23 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 S 14 23 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 S 14 23 735 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 S 16 24 735 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 S 16 24 735 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 S 16 24 735 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 S 21 33 735 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 S 21 33 735 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 S 21 33 735 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 24 36 735 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 24 36 735 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 24 36 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 S 20 31 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 S 20 31 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 S 20 31 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 S 20 31 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 20 31 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 S 20 31 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 48 SE 4 5 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 50 SE 4 5 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 50 SE 4 5 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 53 53 S 12 19 2877 2770 0 White 1
3 PM Sat 53 53 S 12 19 2877 2770 0 White 1
4 PM Sat 51 51 S 12 19 2322 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 S 13 20 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 S 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 S 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 SSE 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 SSE 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 SSE 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 14 21 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 13 20 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 ESE 13 20 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 ESE 13 20 735 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 E 13 19 735 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 13 19 735 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 46 E 13 19 735 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 51 ESE 13 19 2322 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 ESE 13 19 3095 2770 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 54 56 ESE 13 19 3531 3217 447 White 4
2 PM Sun 55 56 ESE 11 17 3531 3217 447 White 4
3 PM Sun 55 56 ESE 11 17 3531 3217 447 White 4
4 PM Sun 56 57 ESE 11 17 3747 3747 977 White 5
5 PM Sun 56 56 SE 11 17 3531 3217 447 White 4
6 PM Sun 54 54 SE 11 17 3095 2770 0 White 2
7 PM Sun 52 52 SE 11 17 2660 2770 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 ESE 8 12 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 ESE 8 12 1565 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 ESE 8 12 788 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 NNE 5 9 788 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 54 NNE 5 9 3095 2770 0 White 2
11 AM Mon 55 59 SSE 6 10 4180 4180 1410 White 7
12 Noon Mon 58 63 SSE 6 10 5050 4934 2164 White 11
1 PM Mon 59 64 SSE 6 10 5263 5053 2283 White 12
2 PM Mon 60 65 SW 11 17 5475 5351 2581 White 13
3 PM Mon 61 65 SW 11 17 5475 5351 2581 White 13
4 PM Mon 61 63 SW 11 17 5050 4934 2164 White 11
5 PM Mon 60 61 W 12 19 4617 4617 1847 White 9
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 12 19 3964 3964 1194 White 6
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 12 19 3313 2770 0 White 3
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 10 13 2660 2770 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 10 13 1946 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 10 13 1179 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 6 10 788 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 5 9 735 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 6 10 735 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 51 NNE 6 10 2322 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 58 NNE 6 10 3964 3964 1194 White 6
11 AM Tue 60 65 S 6 10 5475 5351 2581 White 13
12 Noon Tue 63 69 S 6 10 6323 6323 3553 White 17
1 PM Tue 65 71 S 6 10 6745 6745 3975 White 19
2 PM Tue 67 73 W 10 16 7166 7166 4396 White 21
3 PM Tue 68 73 W 10 16 7166 7166 4396 White 21
4 PM Tue 68 71 W 10 16 6745 6745 3975 White 19
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 11 17 6112 6112 3342 White 16
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 11 17 5050 4934 2164 White 11
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 11 17 4180 4180 1410 White 7
8 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 10 14 3313 2770 0 White 3
9 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 10 14 2877 2770 0 White 1
10 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 10 14 2322 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]