NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach SW 9 0 W 14 0 W 14 278 W 10 431 SW 9 431 W 12 278
Pine Mountain SW 8 3407 SW 16 0 N 21 2791 N 8 4700 N 8 5342 W 12 4700
Eliminator Skyport SW 9 0 W 15 0 N 14 16 W 8 3853 NE 9 4067 W 12 772
Ojai SW 9 3695 SW 13 0 N 14 0 N 5 3695 S 9 4349 W 6 3914
Dunlap SW 8 4093 S 16 0 NW 8 0 NW 9 4529 N 6 4529 W 6 5835
Calabasas S 8 1164 SW 10 53 SW 9 1441 SW 10 4353 SW 10 6749 SW 8 6330
Saddle Peak SW 9 0 SW 12 0 SW 9 0 SW 10 512 SW 12 2660 SW 10 1150
Garlock SW 18 5396 SW 25 0 W 21 3876 W 13 5811 SW 14 5396 SW 15 6640
Blackhawk SW 17 5352 SW 37 1354 W 26 3392 W 17 5777 SW 12 6617 W 9 7239
La Cumbre Peak SW 9 0 SW 15 0 N 17 0 W 7 3386 NE 9 4035 W 12 235
Slick Rock W 7 4247 SW 10 0 W 8 0 NW 9 3383 N 7 4031 W 6 5534
Horseshoe W 14 2377 SW 24 0 NW 22 2122 NW 21 4453 SE 24 4239 S 24 5091
Malibu - Castro Peak SW 10 0 W 15 0 SW 10 0 W 13 0 SW 12 343 SW 9 63
Cayucos W 14 1130 W 10 706 W 10 1482 W 13 1934 W 13 1934 W 8 1675

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com