NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach SW 10 78 W 9 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0 SW 10 0 SW 10 0
Pine Mountain N 17 9557 N 14 8778 SW 12 8558 SW 13 8338 SW 13 8338 SW 13 8558
Eliminator Skyport W 17 6523 N 16 3708 SW 10 0 SW 12 0 SW 12 0 SW 12 0
Ojai N 13 10703 W 10 8182 S 10 6733 SW 10 7481 SW 10 7481 S 9 8182
Dunlap W 9 9046 W 7 7689 W 7 6945 E 6 2111 SW 7 6945 SW 7 6136
Calabasas SW 13 11512 S 15 3371 S 14 1634 S 13 449 S 15 449 SW 14 661
Saddle Peak SW 16 9328 S 16 607 S 16 0 S 16 0 S 18 0 SW 17 0
Garlock W 23 10538 SW 23 10323 SW 24 9147 SW 23 8510 SW 22 8510 S 21 8510
Blackhawk SW 15 10159 SW 20 10159 SW 20 9569 SW 14 9350 SW 16 8691 N 12 8912
La Cumbre Peak N 20 10585 N 14 7242 SW 12 0 SW 13 0 SW 13 0 SW 13 0
Slick Rock W 8 9515 W 6 8276 SW 6 6901 SW 6 6144 SW 7 6901 W 7 6901
Horseshoe SE 14 11362 SE 17 11362 SE 22 7366 SE 22 7195 SE 22 7538 S 23 7538
Malibu - Castro Peak SW 14 7842 S 14 0 S 14 0 S 13 0 SW 15 0 SW 13 0
Cayucos NW 14 620 NW 13 530 W 10 475 SW 12 462 W 14 462 SW 12 475

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com