Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 70 S 5 5489 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 S 5 5489 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 3 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 NE 1 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 76 78 NE 2 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 81 NE 3 11111 9706 3426 White 9
11 AM Sun 78 83 NE 7 11545 11137 4857 White 11
12 Noon Sun 80 86 NE 8 12190 12190 5910 White 14
1 PM Sun 82 88 NE 8 12616 12616 6336 White 16
2 PM Sun 84 90 NE 9 13042 13042 6762 White 18
3 PM Sun 85 89 N 8 12829 12829 6549 White 17
4 PM Sun 85 88 N 8 12616 12616 6336 White 16
5 PM Sun 86 87 N 7 12404 12404 6124 White 15
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 8 11762 11554 5274 White 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 NW 9 11545 11137 4857 White 11
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 9 11111 9706 3426 White 9
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 10675 7570 1290 White 7
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 77 77 W 13 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 13 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 75 75 W 13 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 12 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 73 73 W 10 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 72 72 W 10 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 W 7 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 W 7 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 74 74 SW 5 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 76 76 W 0 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 77 78 N 1 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 78 80 N 2 10893 8673 2393 White 8
11 AM Mon 80 83 NE 6 11545 11137 4857 White 11
12 Noon Mon 82 86 NE 7 12190 12190 5910 White 14
1 PM Mon 84 88 NE 8 12616 12616 6336 White 16
2 PM Mon 86 90 NE 9 13042 13042 6762 White 18
3 PM Mon 87 90 NE 9 13042 13042 6762 White 18
4 PM Mon 86 88 NE 8 12616 12616 6336 White 16
5 PM Mon 87 88 NE 6 12616 12616 6336 White 16
6 PM Mon 86 86 NE 3 12190 12190 5910 White 14
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 0 11762 11554 5274 White 12
8 PM Mon 82 82 W 5 11329 10869 4589 White 10
9 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 11111 9706 3426 White 9
10 PM Mon 79 79 W 7 10675 7570 1290 White 7
11 PM Mon 78 78 W 8 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 8 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 75 75 W 8 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 74 74 W 8 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 73 73 W 8 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 72 72 W 7 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 W 5 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 W 5 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 75 75 SW 2 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 77 77 E 5 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 78 80 E 5 10893 8673 2393 White 8
10 AM Tue 80 83 E 6 11545 11137 4857 White 11
11 AM Tue 82 87 NE 9 12404 12404 6124 White 15
12 Noon Tue 84 91 NE 13 13254 13254 6974 White 19
1 PM Tue 86 93 NE 14 13674 13674 7394 White 21
2 PM Tue 88 94 NE 14 13883 13883 7603 White 22
3 PM Tue 88 93 NE 14 13674 13674 7394 White 21
4 PM Tue 89 92 NE 14 13464 13464 7184 White 20
5 PM Tue 88 90 NE 12 13042 13042 6762 White 18
6 PM Tue 87 87 NE 8 12404 12404 6124 White 15
7 PM Tue 85 85 N 5 11976 11976 5696 White 13
8 PM Tue 84 84 SW 7 11762 11554 5274 White 12
9 PM Tue 83 83 S 5 11545 11137 4857 White 11
10 PM Tue 82 82 S 1 11329 10869 4589 White 10
11 PM Tue 81 81 W 0 11111 9706 3426 White 9
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 S 1 10675 7570 1290 White 7
1 AM Wed 77 77 S 3 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 75 75 SE 5 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 74 74 SE 6 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 73 73 SE 6 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 73 73 SW 5 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 74 74 SW 5 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 75 75 SW 5 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 77 78 S 2 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 2 10893 8673 2393 White 8
10 AM Wed 80 84 S 2 11762 11554 5274 White 12
11 AM Wed 82 88 S 8 12616 12616 6336 White 16
12 Noon Wed 84 91 S 8 13254 13254 6974 White 19
1 PM Wed 86 93 S 8 13674 13674 7394 White 21
2 PM Wed 88 95 SW 10 14092 14092 7812 White 23
3 PM Wed 87 92 SW 10 13464 13464 7184 White 20
4 PM Wed 88 92 SW 10 13464 13464 7184 White 20
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 14 12616 12616 6336 White 16
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 14 11976 11976 5696 White 13
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 14 11762 11554 5274 White 12
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 11329 10869 4589 White 10
9 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 11329 10869 4589 White 10
10 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 11329 10869 4589 White 10
11 PM Wed 81 81 SW 12 11111 9706 3426 White 9
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 SW 12 10893 8673 2393 White 8
1 AM Thu 79 79 SW 12 10675 7570 1290 White 7
2 AM Thu 78 78 SW 10 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 78 78 SW 10 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 77 77 SW 10 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 76 76 W 7 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 74 74 W 7 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 72 72 W 7 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 SW 2 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 75 SW 2 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 76 80 SW 2 10893 8673 2393 White 8
11 AM Thu 79 85 S 9 11976 11976 5696 White 13
12 Noon Thu 83 90 S 9 13042 13042 6762 White 18
1 PM Thu 86 93 S 9 13674 13674 7394 White 21
2 PM Thu 86 93 SW 12 13674 13674 7394 White 21
3 PM Thu 87 92 SW 12 13464 13464 7184 White 20
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 12 13042 13042 6762 White 18
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 13 12190 12190 5910 White 14
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 11329 10869 4589 White 10
7 PM Thu 81 81 SW 13 11111 9706 3426 White 9
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 10675 7570 1290 White 7
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 9834 7359 1079 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 12 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 8 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 8 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 73 73 W 8 6831 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 8 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 W 8 5489 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 W 7 5489 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 W 7 5489 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 W 7 5655 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 W 3 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 77 79 W 3 10675 7570 1290 White 7
10 AM Fri 80 84 W 3 11762 11554 5274 White 12
11 AM Fri 83 89 W 9 12829 12829 6549 White 17
12 Noon Fri 85 92 W 9 13464 13464 7184 White 20
1 PM Fri 87 94 W 9 13883 13883 7603 White 22
2 PM Fri 88 95 SW 12 14092 14092 7812 White 23
3 PM Fri 87 93 SW 12 13674 13674 7394 White 21
4 PM Fri 87 91 SW 12 13254 13254 6974 White 19
5 PM Fri 86 88 SW 13 12616 12616 6336 White 16
6 PM Fri 84 84 SW 13 11762 11554 5274 White 12
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 13 11111 9706 3426 White 9
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 13 10675 7570 1290 White 7
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 8781 7177 897 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 13 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 76 76 W 9 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 W 9 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 76 76 W 9 7591 6808 528 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 75 75 W 9 7369 6280 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 74 74 W 9 7186 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 72 72 W 9 5655 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst